Big Changes, Unknown Impacts

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1 Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018

2 Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Percent Change, SAAR Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Consensus Forecasts.

3 Economic Growth Percent Change Year Percent Change Fixed Business Investment Personal Consumption Expenditures Year-over-Year Quarterly SAAR Quarterly SAAR Year-over-Year Year Percent Change Year-over-Year Quarterly SAAR Year Percent Change Net Exports Government Spending Exports Imports Year Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Business Research Division.

4 Recession 8 Months National Employment Month-over-Month Change, 12-Month Average Thousands, Month-over-Month, 12- Mo Average Recession 18 Months Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), Moody s Analytics, and NBER.

5 Employment Growth by State Year-over-Year November 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

6 Labor Underutilization Percentage of Labor Force Average U-6 U U-5 8.1% Average U-3 U-3 5.1% 4.1% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

7 Labor Force Participation 68.0 Labor Force Participation Rate LFPR LFPR by Age Cohort Historical Peak Current: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

8 U.S. Income and Consumption Percent Change 5.0 Real Disposable Income Percent Change 4.0 Real Personal Consumption % % Sources: Consensus Forecasts.

9 Securities Trends Trough of Recession in 2009 to December 2017 Indexed, 2009= NASDAQ Russell 2000 S&P 500 Dow Jones CPI Source: Bloomberg.

10 Household Debt Burden Percent of Disposable Income DSR Debt Service Ratio (L) FOR Financial Obligations Ratio (R) Source: Federal Reserve, Household Debt Service and Obligations Ratios.

11 Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales 1985=100 Consumer Confidence Mountain Annual Percent Change Retail and Food Services Sales United States Sources: Conference Board and National Bureau of Economic Research. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody s Analytics, U.S. Census Bureau (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

12 Nominal Corporate Profits and Business Fixed Investment Percent Change Nominal Pre-Tax Corporate Profits 5.8% Percent Change Business Fixed Investment 4.7% Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Forecasts.

13 ISM Indices ISM Manufacturing Index ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

14 National FHFA Home Price Growth Year over Year Q Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, All Transactions Index.

15 Federal Budget Balance $ Billions ,000 -$734-1,200-1,400-1, Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.18B, Consensus Forecasts.

16 Interest Rates (Forecast) Percent Year T-Note Month T-Bill Sources: Federal Reserve and Moody s.

17 National Inflation Year-over-Year Percent Change Shelter All items less food and energy All items Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (SA).

18 Photo courtesy of the University of Colorado. Colorado Population, Employment, and Prices

19 Colorado Employment Growth Jobs Added Thousands ,330 47, Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and the Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

20 Employment In Current Decade National, State, and Local Percent 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Greeley Ft. Collins-Loveland Denver Boulder Colorado Colorado Springs National Pueblo Grand Junction 0% -5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted).

21 Colorado Employment Change 2018 Forecast Employment in Thousands 2,710 2,700 2,690 2,680 2,670 Professional Business Services Trade, Transportation, Utilities Education, Health Services Financial Actvities Construction Leisure and Hospitality Government Total jobs gained: 47,100 Other Manufacturing Mining and Logging Information , ,650 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (SA).

22 Colorado Wages 2016 Sector Total Employment YoY Employment Growth Wages YoY Wage Growth Mgmt of Companies and Enterprises % $128, % Mining and Logging % $114, % Utilities % $95, % Information % $95, % Professional and Technical Services % $90, % Finance and Insurance % $90, % Wholesale Trade % $79, % Manufacturing % $66, % Construction % $57, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing % $54, % All Industries 2, % $54, % Government % $53, % Transportation and Warehousing % $53, % Health Care and Social Assistance % $48, % Educational Services % $39, % Administrative and Waste Services % $38, % Other Services % $38, % Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation % $36, % Retail Trade % $30, % Accommodation and Food Services % $20, % Sources: Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee and Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

23 Photo Courtesy Regional Transportation District. Construction

24 Residential Building Permits ,000 Permits 50,000 40,000 Multifamily 43,400 30,000 20,000 10,000 Single Family Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

25 Value of Construction $25 Value in Billions $20 $15 Non-Building Non-Residential Residential $19.2 B $10 $5 $ Source: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics.

26 Retail Trade Sales Total and Percentage Change $ Millions, 12-Month Rolling Sum $3,000 Percent Change 10.0 $2,500 $2,000 Net Sales Taxes General Fund Sales Taxes $1, $1,000 $ $ Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue and Colorado Business Economic Outlook Committee.

27 Colorado General Fund $ Millions $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 Excise $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Individual and Corporate Income Sales, Use, and Other Excise Fiscal Years Source: Colorado Office of the State Controller and the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting (December 2017). Note: Excludes revenue transferred to the State Education Fund.

28 Photo courtesy of the University of Colorado. Boulder

29 Real Gross Domestic Product Boulder MSA Millions of Chained 2009 Dollars $25,000 Percentage Change 8.0% $20,000 $15, % $10, % $5,000 $ % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

30 Single Family v. Multifamily Permits Boulder MSA, Year-to-Date through November 2017 Permits 1,800 1,600 1,400 Permits 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Multifamily Single Family 1,200 1,000-26% % YTD 2017 YTD Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

31 City of Boulder Median Price of Single Family Homes Sold, Number of SF Homes Sold Dollars 900, , , , , ,000 Number of Homes Sold 1, ,000 1, , , , , , , , Source: Boulder Area Realtor Association. *YoY through November Excludes condos and townhomes. 300, YTD Nov YTD Nov. -100

32 Commercial Vacancy Rates: City of Boulder Percent Office Warehouse Flex Retail Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank.

33 Boulder County Value of Construction $ Thousands 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Nonbuilding Nonresidential Residential Sources: McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge Research and Analytics YTD Nov YTD Nov.

34 Boulder MSA Employment Thousands YoY +4,100 jobs, 2.2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (SA).

35 Boulder County Jobs Added, 5 Years Professional, Scientific, and Technical Health Care Accommodation and Food Services Government Retail Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Other Education Real Estate Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Management of Companies Administrative and Waste Transportation Agriculture Utilities Mining Financial Information -2,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, QCEW.

36 Employment Comparison 100% Colorado Rest of Boulder County City of Boulder 90% All Other 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 3% 6% 6% 8% 11% 11% 3% 9% 4% 14% 10% 11% 6% 11% 2% 16% 10% 9% Information Manufacturing Construction Prof., Scientific, and Tech. Accommodations & Food Retail 20% 11% 15% 9% Healthcare 10% 0% 16% 16% 17% Government Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, QCEW.

37 City of Boulder Employment Total Employment ~93,000 Government Professional and Technical Services Manufacturing Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Information Wholesale Trade Finance and Insurance Other Services Administrative and Waste Services Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Educational Services Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing All Other 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, QCEW.

38 $ Millions Boulder County Wages Annual Rate (4Q Rolling) $11,000 5-Year Average Growth: 5% $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

39 Boulder County Average Wages Annual Rate (4Q) $70,000 $65,000 5-Year Average Growth: 2.4% $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW Data Series, NSA.

40 Dollars $100, Average Annual Wages Front Range $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $63,999 Colorado: $56,232 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, QCEW.

41 Sales and Use Tax Collections City of Boulder $ Millions City of Boulder Sales and Use Tax, 12-Month Rolling Sum City of Boulder: -5.0% Longmont: +11.8% Broomfield: +1.8% Colorado: +7.0% Source: City of Boulder.

42 Sales and Use Tax Collections City of Boulder, 12-Month Rolling Sum $ Millions Construction Use -33.8% YTD Consumer and Vehicle Use -14.9% YTD Sales +0.3% YTD Source: City of Boulder.

43 Venture Capital Investment City of Boulder Millions $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 Boulder Quarterly VC Funding Q Deals: Prima-Temp Alpine Start Congruex Jump Cloud Clear Comfort Temp Quest Surna CaliberMind Stateless Alpin $ Source: PwC/NVCA MoneyTree, Boulder County Business Report.

44 Summary Faster GDP growth Slower employment growth Deficit-financed tax cuts Rising interest rates Moderate global growth Higher commodity prices Depreciating dollar Policy Slower state job growth

45 colorado.edu/business/brd

Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder

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