Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future
|
|
- Elfrieda Parks
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Oil Prices: Past, Present, & Future Gulf Research Center November 23, 2005 A. F. Alhajji*, PhD Gulf Energy Program - Moderator Gulf Research Center Dubai, UAE *A. F. Alhajji, PhD is also George Patten Chair of Business and Economics, College of Business Administration, Ohio Northern University, USA
2 Outline Historical Overview of Oil Prices Recent Development Short Term Factors Long Term Factors Future Prospects
3 $/b Politics and Oil Prices Start of Iraq-Iran War Invasion of Kuwait The Gulf War Oil-for-Food Iraq & UN Invasion of Iraq Iraq Russia Venezuela Saddam becomes president Embargo Iranian Revolution Saudis increase production Major destruction to Iraqi and Iranian oil facilities Iraq-Iran war ends Iraq Nigeria Indonesia The Asian Crisis Oil-for Food Terror Iraq Venezuela September Jan 1974 Jan 1975 Jan 1976 Jan 1977 Jan 1978 Jan 1979 Jan 1980 Jan 1981 Jan 1982 Jan 1983 Jan 1984 Jan 1985 Jan 1986 Jan 1987 Jan 1988 Jan 1989 Jan 1990 Jan 1991 Jan 1992 Jan 1993 Jan 1994 Jan 1995 Jan 1996 Jan 1997 Jan 1998 Jan 1999 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan
4 Two conclusions This is the only time in history when oil prices increased substantially without a major political event Minor political events lead to daily price volatility Political events exist even with low oil prices
5 The Impact of Iraq in Bush Threatens Iraq Iraq The Terrorists' Attack /12/2001 2/1 11/1 1/23 2/1 2/12 2/22 3/5 3/14 3/23 4/3 4/12 4/24 5/3 5/14 5/23 4/6/2001 6/13/01 6/22/01 3/7/2001 7/13/01 7/24/01 2/8/2001 8/13/01 8/22/01 8/31/01 9/17/01 9/26/01 5/10/ /16/01 10/25/01 5/11/ /14/01 11/26/01 12/14/01 12/26/01 Arab Light Brent WTI Attack on Iraq Bush Threatens Iraq Bush orders filling the SPR Return of Iraqi Exports Increase in Iraqi Exports Return of Iraqi Exports Iraq Data source: IEA, 2002 Iraq
6 Politics & Oil Prices in 2003 $/b Bush issues ultimatum to Saddam Some Iraqi Resistance The fall of Baghdad Brent The Official end of war WTI OPEC maintains quotas Pipeline explosions Labor strike in Nigeria Terrorist attack in Jakarta OPEC announces production cut Start of the invasion Iraq resumes production in the north 20 12/31/02 1/14/03 1/28/03 2/11/03 2/25/03 3/11/03 3/25/03 4/8/03 4/22/03 5/6/03 5/20/03 6/3/03 6/17/03 7/1/03 7/15/03 7/29/03 8/12/03 8/26/03 9/9/03 9/23/03
7 Daily Spot Oil Prices in 2004 $/b /1 1/16 1/31 2/15 3/1 3/16 3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/30 6/14 6/29 7/14 7/29 8/13 8/28 9/12 9/27 10/12 10/27 11/11 11/26 12/11 12/26 OPEC Brent WTI Source: EIA and OGJ
8 /2/2005 1/2/1998 4/2/1998 7/2/ /2/1998 1/2/1999 4/2/1999 7/2/ /2/1999 1/2/2000 4/2/2000 7/2/ /2/2000 1/2/2001 4/2/2001 7/2/ /2/2001 1/2/2002 4/2/2002 7/2/ /2/2002 1/2/2003 4/2/2003 7/2/ /2/2003 1/2/2004 4/2/2004 7/2/ /2/2004 1/2/2005 4/2/ /2/2005 Daily Spot Oil Prices (1998-Present) $/b Brent WTI The Invasion Source: EIA, 2005
9 Short-term vs. Long-term Short-term factors are those political, economic, technical, and natural factors that cause short term fluctuations in oil prices around their average. They do not determine the longterm direction of oil prices. They determine the upper and lower limits in the short run. Examples: Pipeline explosions, changes in weekly stocks, hurricanes,..etc Long-term factors are those political, economic, technical, and natural factors that determine the long-term direction of oil prices. They shift the average of prices for an extended period of time. They do NOT determine the upper and lower limits Examples: Major wars sanctions, oil market collapse, new technology..etc
10 Short-Term Factors Political Factors Iraq Venezuela Nigeria Russia Terrorism
11 Short-Term Factors Economic Factors Economic Growth OPEC Inventories Speculation Price of Natural Gas Labor Strikes The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
12 Increase in Economic Growth Rates % Adv. economies Euro area World China India United States Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2005.
13 Change in World Petroleum Consumption 000 b/d Source: IEA, 2005
14 Why Demand Increased? China Economic Growth Migration of IT Companies to China (transferred demand) Electricity Sector and Private Generation United States Economic Recovery Rise of Price of Natural Gas SUVs SPR
15 Why Demand Increased? Japan Maintenance of nuclear power plants Europe Economic recovery The increase in the value of the Euro
16 Oil Prices in Dollar and Euro /4/1999 4/4/1999 7/4/ /4/1999 1/4/2000 4/4/2000 7/4/ /4/2000 1/4/2001 4/4/2001 7/4/ /4/2001 1/4/2002 4/4/2002 7/4/ /4/2002 1/4/2003 4/4/2003 7/4/ /4/2003 1/4/2004 4/4/2004 7/4/ /4/2004 1/4/2005 $- /b WTI in $ Brent in Euro $ Source: EIA and Federal Reserve Board, 2005.
17 Oil Prices in Dollar and Yen $ Oil Price Oil Price $/b /b $ Oct-73 Oct-74 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 Oct-79 Oct-80 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88 Oct-89 Oct-90 Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Source: EIA and Federal Reserve Board, 2005.
18 Short-Term Factors Technical factors Refinery outages Adjustment for new environmental laws The UN Shipping and Port Security Code
19 Short-Term Factors Natural Factors Storms in the US and Europe Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico Sandstorms in Iraq High wind in the North Sea
20 In the Long Run Major Political Events The Iraq-Iran War ( ) The Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait (1990) The Gulf War (1991) The War on Terrorism (2001-present) The US Occupation of Iraq (2003-present) Economic sanctions on oil producing countries (Iraq, Iran, Libya, Myanmar, Sudan, and Syria)
21 In the Long Run Major Economic Events The price collapse of 1986 The price collapse of 1998 Growth in IT Technology Dollar depreciation (2002-present) Predictions of growth in non-opec production
22 World Excess Capacity Vs. Oil Prices mb/d Embargo The Iranian Revolution World Excess Capacity Invasion of Kuwait Nominal Price Economic sanctions Strengthening the sanctions Price ($) Dec 2004Jan 2004June 2004Aug 2004Oct 2004Dec 2005Feb 2005Apr 2005June 0
23 Additions to Reserves 000 b ME ME LA ME Middle East Latin America
24 The Future??
25 The Future Macroeconomic variables in the consuming countries Expansion of production capacity in the producing countries
26 Interest Rates & Oil Prices % Discount Rate Federal Fund Rate Oil Prices $/b October 1974 October 1975 October 1976 October 1977 October 1978 October 1979 October 1980 October 1981 October 1982 October 1983 October 1984 October 1985 October 1986 October 1987 October 1988 October 1989 October 1990 October 1991 October 1992 October 1993 October 1994 October 1995 October 1996 October 1997 October 1998 October 1999 October 2000 October 2001 October 2002 October 2003 October 2004 October Source: EIA and Federal Reserve Board, 2005.
27 Changes in Government Expenditures Vs. Changes in Oil Prices % Change in Government Consumption % Change in Oil Price % % Average Increase in Governmnt Consumption Q1 1981Q1 1982Q1 1983Q1 1984Q1 1985Q1 1986Q1 1987Q1 1988Q1 1989Q1 1990Q1 1991Q1 1992Q1 1993Q1 1994Q1 1995Q1 1996Q1 1997Q1 1998Q1 1999Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 Source: IMF, 2005 and EIA 2005
28 US Per Capita Income vs. Oil Prices Real Oil Prices Real Per Capita income Price ($/b) Linear (Real Per Capita income) Linear (Real Oil Prices) Income ($) , ,000 26, , ,000 20,000 18, , ,000 12, , q1 1974q1 1975q1 1976q1 1977q1 1978q1 1979q1 1980q1 1981q1 1982q1 1983q1 1984q1 1985q1 1986q1 1987q1 1988q1 1989q1 1990q1 1991q1 1992q1 1993q1 1994q1 1995q1 1996q1 1997q1 1998q1 1999q1 2000q1 2001q1 2002q1 2003q1 2004q1 Source: EIA and BEA, 2005
29 Current and Real Oil Prices ($2000) $/b $70 Real $2000) Current $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ Year Source: EIA, 2005 and the author's calculation
30 Saudi Real Per Capita Income $ (1999) للفرد SR ريال 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25, Source: EIA, 2005
31 OPEC s Current and Real Oil Revenues $ Billion مليار دولار Current Real Source: EIA, 2005
32 $ per capita OPEC s Real Per Capita Oil Revues ($2004) Current Real 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Real One-third ,000 2,000 - Current Source: EIA, 2005
33 $ per Capita Saudi Real Per Capita Revenues Current Real (2004) $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 Real $10,000 One-fifth 1980 $5,000 Current $ Source: EIA, 2005
34 Saudi Real Economic Growth ( ) % %11 %5
35 Saudi Crude Oil Production (mbd) يناير 1973 يناير 1974 يناير 1975 يناير 1976 يناير 1977 يناير 1978 يناير 1979 يناير 1980 يناير 1981 يناير 1982 يناير 1983 يناير 1984 يناير 1985 يناير 1986 يناير 1987 يناير 1988 يناير 1989 يناير 1990 يناير 1991 يناير 1992 يناير 1993 يناير 1994 يناير 1995 يناير 1996 يناير 1997 يناير 1998 يناير 1999 يناير 2000 يناير 2001 يناير 2002 يناير 2003 يناير 2004 يناير 2005 Similar Pattern? Source: EIA, 2005
36 Future Prospects Short-term Fundamentally Tight Market No marketable excess capacity Demand still growing, though at a slower rate. Hurricane season Demand will grow if China revalue its currency. Concerns regarding the adequacy of heating oil in the US during the 4 th quarter. Stock build is not enough to avoid price spikes: 2 days of demand cover for crude (stocks and capacity) 1 day for products Not evenly distributed Crude, mostly heavy
37 Future Prospects Medium-term Fundamentally Tight Market with Possibility of Downturn. Planned capacity expansion is not enough Slow growth in Russian production with possibility of decline Continued decline in US crude oil production Continued decline in North Sea production Continued maintenance and the planned shut down of nuclear reactors in Asia (Japan) would increase demand for oil More nuclear reactors in China will increase its demand for oil The role of new technology and renewables will be very limited
38 Wars, Oil Crisis, and Economic Growth Real GDP per person (1996 dollars) Great Depression 33,000 28,000 23,000 18,000 13,000 8,000 World War II Real GDP per Person in the US Economy Korean War Vietnam War First Oil Price Shock Second Oil Price Shock 3, Gulf War Year
39 So Can the past explain the future?
Global growth prospects
Global growth prospects Percent 6 Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economies 5 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.5 4 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
More informationPercent
Outline Outline Growth is picking up Percent 6 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 5 4 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015
More informationMIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017
MIDDLE EAST ENERGY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IRAQ ENERGY FORUM 2017 2017 1 OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS 2 Energy exports/imports (million tonnes) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
More informationDECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015
DECLINE IN COMMODITY PRICES GCC OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 22 ND, 2015 1 EVERYONE HAS A PLAN UNTIL THEY GET PUNCHED IN THE FACE 2 HE WHO IS NOT COURAGEOUS ENOUGH TO TAKE RISKS WILL ACCOMPLISH NOTHING IN LIFE 3 IT
More informationMarket Report Series Oil SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017
Market Report Series Oil 2017 SIEW 2017 launch - 28 March 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace 2.0 Global oil demand growth 2014-2022 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
More informationOpening address for dinner-debate
Opening address for dinner-debate Mohammed Barkindo Acting for the OPEC Secretary General European Parliament Strasbourg, France 4 July 2006 1 Outline Importance of EU-OPEC Energy Dialogue Current oil
More informationRebalancing Global Crude Flows
Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John R. Auers Executive Vice President AIChE Dallas Chapter April Section Meeting April 28, 2015 Page 1 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C began publishing
More informationIndex, nominal terms, 2010 = Energy. Agriculture Metals
Outline Broad commodity price trends Index, nominal terms, 2010 = 100 180 150 Energy 120 90 60 Agriculture Metals 30 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source:
More informationMarket Outlook January,
Market Outlook 2004 January, 2004 www.teekay.com Forward Looking Statements This document contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended)
More informationMarket Report Series Oil 2017
Market Report Series Oil 2017 Neil Atkinson, Head Oil Industry & Markets Division, IEA International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, 17 September 2017 Oil demand continues to grow but at a slower
More informationOIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO Symposium Energieinnovation
OIL MARKET OUTLOOK, MAIN UNCERTAINTY FACTORS & PRICE INDICATIONS TO 2020 11. Symposium Energieinnovation 23 February 2010 Johannes Benigni JBC Energy GmbH 10. Februar 2010 Research Energy Studies Consulting
More informationRebalancing Global Crude Flows
Rebalancing Global Crude Flows John Mayes Director of Special Studies AFPM Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 24, 2015 TM&C North American Crude & Condensate Outlook TM&C publishes North American
More informationShifts in the Geopolitical Landscape and Their Impact on Petroleum Sector Capex Strategies
Shifts in the Geopolitical Landscape and Their Impact on Petroleum Sector Capex Strategies Golden, CO April 14, 2016 Thomas A. Petrie, CFA Chairman, Petrie Partners Figure 1 Chaos Prevails Russia Wins
More informationUnited Nations Conference on Trade and Development
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 11 th MULTI-YEAR EXPERT MEETING ON COMMODITIES AND DEVELOPMENT 15-16 April 2019, Geneva Saudi economic growth strategy on the face of oil price uncertainty
More informationProducer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges -
Producer - Consumer Dialogue - Rising to New Challenges - Klaus Rehaag Head, Oil Industry & Markets Division Editor, Oil Market Report International Energy Agency Paris, France klaus.rehaag@iea.org Asia
More informationCommodity prices ( pink sheet ) are updated on the third business day of each month (the next update will be posted on May 4, 2016).
The latest edition of the World Bank s Commodity Markets Outlook was published on January 26, 2016. The next edition will be published tomorrow at 3:00 pm EST! Commodity prices ( pink sheet ) are updated
More informationShort and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook. 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016
Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016 Oil world changed on Nov. 27 th 2014 $/bbl 120 Brent crude oil 100 80 60 40 Copyright 2016 Argus Media 20
More informationImpact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Energy Industries and Economy
ILO Tripartite Caribbean Conference Promoting Human Prosperity beyond the Global Financial Crisis Kingston Jamaica 1-2 April 2009 Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Energy Industries and Economy
More information4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Riyadh, 22 January 2014
4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks Riyadh, 22 January 2014 Spare or stranded?* mb/d 7.0 Medium-Term Oil Market Balance 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Mark A. Wynne Vice President & Associate Director of Research Director, Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Presentation to Vistas Conference
More informationOutline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
More informationOPEC. Annual Statistical Bulletin Fuad Al Zayer Head, Data Services Department OPEC September
OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2006 Fuad Al Zayer Head, Data Services Department OPEC 1 13 September 2007 http://www.opec.org 2006, OUTLINE Present the 2006 edition of the OPEC ASB Show examples of topics
More informationSulphur Market Outlook
Sulphur Market Outlook Meena Chauhan Head of Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Integer Research The Fertilizer Institute Outlook and Technology conference Fort Lauderdale, Florida Founded in 2002, Integer Research
More informationStocks and Bonds Track Aging Population:
Stocks and Bonds Track Aging Population: 1952-2008 8 85.00% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Correlation: 93% Stocks and Bonds as a Percentage of Household Liquid Financial Assets (left scale) Population 35 Years and Over
More informationGlobal Oil Supplies: Is Supply Constrained? Kevin Lindemer
Global Oil Supplies: Is Supply Constrained? Kevin Lindemer Is Supply Constrained? Signposts continue to indicate a supply constrained world is possible and could emerge, not-with-standing short-term easing.
More informationUNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Economics 134 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Spring 2018 Professor David Romer LECTURE 2 OVERVIEW OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION January 22, 2018 I. THE 1920S A. GDP growth and inflation B.
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST BREXIT TRUMPISM EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE
More informationThe outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns
The outlook: what we know, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns 24 April 2017 Seoul Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1
More informationOIL MARKET REPORT DECEMBER 2016
18 January 217 OIL MARKET REPORT DECEMBER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since OPEC end-november meeting the price has been trading above $5 per bbl. Implementation of the deal and new promises from Saudi Arabia will
More informationEconomic & Financial Market Outlook
Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets
More informationEnergy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges. Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1
Energy Outlook Global and Domestic Trends and Challenges Dr. John Caldwell Director of Economics, EEI 1 World GDP Growth Other Economies are Outpacing the U.S. Other, 7996.16, 11% Africa, 3962.51, 6% Latin
More information2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices
2019 Global Travel Forecast: Air, Hotel and Ground Prices Methodology 28 countries and 10 US cities Airlines, Hotel, Rental Car Forecast in USD, guidelines on currency exchange forecast Forecast projections
More informationStatisticians Firouz Azarnia Monica Psenner Gertrud Schmidl Hannes Windholz Pantelis Christodoulides. Editor Jerry Haylins. Art Designer Alaa Al-Saigh
Data supply Head, Data Services Department Fuad Al-Zayer Statistical Systems Analyst Denie Tampubolon Statisticians Firouz Azarnia Monica Psenner Gertrud Schmidl Hannes Windholz Pantelis Christodoulides
More informationAnalyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Disclaimer Disclaimer: The statements in this presentation do not represent the official views of the
More informationThe Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference
The Israeli Economy 2009 The Caesarea Center Conference Provost, Interdisciplinary Center (IDC) Herzliya The Big Issues The broken crystal ball A crisis that happens once in 100 years From a country oriented
More informationOPEC MARKET SHARE 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ACTUAL DOE IEA PEL PIRA DBAB DRI-WEFA
2025 2030 OPEC MARKET SHARE 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 22 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 ACTUAL DOE IEA PEL PIRA DBAB DRI-WEFA PRICE OUTLOOK $60 $50 $40 1999$/BBL $30 $20 $10 $0
More informationThe U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
More informationMajor Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry
Major Issues and Trends Facing the Port and Marine Transportation Industry Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management Training Program April 24, 2006 Charleston Riverview Hotel Charleston, SC - USA
More informationU.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX July 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its
More informationOIL MARKET REPORT OCTOBER 2018
16 November OIL MARKET REPORT OCTOBER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In October crude oil market caught a bear flu after almost gripping the $90 per barrel price level (Brent). In the beginning of October the market
More informationMarket Insights. March 29, 2019
March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%
More informationMarket Insights. June 30, 2018
June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%
More informationMontreal Real Estate Forum. Economic Outlooks for March 31, Cooperating in building the future
Montreal Real Estate Forum March 31, 2015 Economic Outlooks for 2015 François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in building the future Outline The global economy and
More informationWorld Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19
World Vegetable Oil Themes in 2018/19 Ben Buckner AgResource Company World Veg Oil Themes in 2018 POLITICS Disorder, Trade Barriers (India More than China?) HUGE difference between world soybean supply
More informationTABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change
TABLE 1. REAL GDP AND GROWTH RATES IN THE ESCWA REGION AT CONSTANT 1995 PRICES, 2001-2004 (Millions of US dollars and percentages) Percentage change Country/area 2000 2001 2002 2003 a/ 2004 b/ 2001 2002
More informationThe US Economic Outlook
IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth
More informationHow is Natural Gas Availability Curtailing the growth of DRI production in the MENA region?
How is Natural Gas Availability Curtailing the growth of DRI production in the MENA region? 29 April 2014 World DRI & Pellet Congress Abu Dhabi Robert Smith 1 The Issues Natural gas availability in the
More informationb/d GDP miles dwt Total world Total wo OPEC OPEC OPEC Iraq Iraq P Libyan AJ Kuwait IR Iran Nigeria Algeria SP Libyan AJ Saudi Arabia
963 1985 Iraq Qatar Algeria Kuwait i Arabia l world s 05 OPEC 1963 United Arab Emirates 1975 OPEC Iraq 20001963 Annual Statistical Bulletin OPEC 1976 % Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
More informationOverview of trade and export trends in the boating industry worldwide.
by: Mike Derrett Overview of trade and export trends in the boating industry worldwide. European Boating Industry Conference Genoa 4 th October 2013 Mike Derrett Credentials Boater and Pilot for 50 years
More informationThe New Drivers for Black Sea and World Grain Copyright AgResource Company. All Rights Reserved.
The New Driers for Black Sea and World Grain - 2014 Copyright 2014 2013 AgResource Company. All Rights Resered. Ag Market Driers for 2014? World Food inflation to rise 3.2% in 2013 (s 2.7% in 2012) drien
More informationTrade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies
Trade Growth - Fundamental Driver of Port Operations and Development Strategies Marine Terminal Management Training Program October 15, 2007 Long Beach, CA Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. 1 Agenda Economic
More informationMexico Stands to Benefit From. With Relative Ease. Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014
Mexico Stands to Benefit From With Relative Ease Jesus Cañas Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Laredo, Texas May 2014 Outline 2013 worst than expected Economy back on growth track in 2014 Why we care about
More informationMarket Report Series. Spanish Energy Club, Madrid, 3 May 2018
Market Report Series Oil 2018 Spanish Energy Club, Madrid, 3 May 2018 Neil Atkinson, Head of Oil Industry and Markets Division Toril Bosoni, Senior Oil Market Analyst, Oil Industry and Markets Division
More informationThe World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade
More informationUS Economic Activity
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity
More informationCargo outlook Brian Pearce Chief Economist. 13 December 2018
Cargo outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 13 December 2018 1 Cargo revenue contribution stabilizing 2 % total revenues 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
More informationSUMMARY. Natural Gas In The World 2017 Edition
CEDIGAZ, the International Association for Natural Gas SUMMARY Natural Gas In The World 217 Edition CEDIGAZ, October 217 NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 217 SUMMARY Worldwide proven natural gas reserves grew
More informationEnergy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union
Energy Trends and Emissions in the Former Soviet Union GTSP Annual Meeting May 29, 2008 Presented by M. Evans Looking back Overview Economic and demographic trends Energy trends and energy intensity Toward
More informationeconomic and financial outlook
Centre de référence en agriculture et agroalimentaire du Québec April 21, 2015 2015 2016 economic and financial outlook François Dupuis Vice-President and Chief Economist Desjardins Group Cooperating in
More informationAlaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook
Alaska Resources Development Council November 14-15, 2018 Alaska s Natural Resource Commodities: A 10-Year Outlook David R. Hammond, Ph.D. Principal Mineral Economist Hammond International Group Commodities
More informationSchool of international and Public Affairs. Columbia University Manuel Pinho
School of international and Public Affairs Columbia University Manuel Pinho SPHERE WITH CORE What matters to China matters to the world Do not give lessons to China: Europe and the US The challenges: Growth
More informationPaul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009
Economic Outlook and Ports Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Trade and Transportation February 18, 2009 The Outlook for Trade Depends on Goods Demand Integrated international supply-chains offer efficiencies
More informationSession 4. Growth. The World Economy Share of Global GDP Year 2011 (PPP)
Session 4. Growth Stylized Facts on Standards of Living across Countries Characterizing Growth over 1 Years: The US Economy Growth Dynamics of the G7 Countries and the OECD Economies Characterizing Growth
More informationThree-speed economic recovery
Three-speed economic recovery Projection after 2012 GDP growth, percent 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Euro area -4-6 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Source: IMF WEO, April 2013. Emerging market and developing economies
More informationU.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX August 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and its affiliated
More informationGlobal growth forecasts Key countries/regions,
Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, 2014-2018 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area
More informationDry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook
Dry Bulk Shipping in Indonesia Opportunities & Outlook Mare Forum, Jakarta 27 Peter Malpas 29 th November 27 Introduction Indonesia Key Facts Land Area 1,919,44 km2 = World s s 16 th Largest Population
More informationGlobal Construction Outlook: Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009
Global Construction Outlook: Short-term term Pain, Long-term Gain Laura Hanlon Product Manager, Global Construction Outlook May 21, 2009 What This Means for You The world is set to be hit this year with
More informationGlobal Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years
AUTOMOTIVE Global Economic & Truck-Market Overview: The Next Five Years 22 September 2016 Hannover, Germany Andrej Divis, Director, IHS Automotive +1 703 346 2331, Andrej.Divis@ihsmarkit.com 2 Index, over
More informationGlobal economic cycle has slowed
Year-on-year % change Confidence index, 50= no change Global economic cycle has slowed 25% 70 20% International trade growth 65 15% 10% Industrial production growth 60 5% 55 0% 50-5% Business confidence
More informationOil Markets. Kevin Lindemer Executive Managing Director, Energy Markets Group
Oil Markets Kevin Lindemer Executive Managing Director, Energy Markets Group 2008 Outlook Downside risks in demand are increasing due to weaker economic outlook Upside supply risks still present but balance
More informationThe economic outlook for the Middle East Presentation for the JCCME Conference, Doha 27 August 2012
The economic outlook for the Middle East Presentation for the JCCME Conference, Doha 27 August 2012 Edmund O Sullivan MEED Edmund O Sullivan Edmund.osullivan@meed-dubai.com The Middle East is at a generational
More informationUS imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly
US imports from emerging economies have grown rapidly Ratio to GDP (current dollars) 0.07 US merchandise imports, 1978 2008 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 Industrial Non-OPEC other 0.01 0 OPEC = Organization
More informationIt s time to sober up!
It s time to sober up! Uppsala University, Sweden Pisa, July 2006 Kjell [ ] A World Addicted to Oil "We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of
More informationColombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook. Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018
Colombia: Economic Adjustment and Outlook Andres-Mauricio Velasco Technical Deputy Minister of Finance, Republic of Colombia February 2018 What is Colombian Ministry of Finance s outlook and funding strategies
More informationU.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook
U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook BBVA Research USA Houston, TX September 2015 DISCLAIMER This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research U.S. on behalf of itself and
More informationAirline industry outlook 2019
Airline industry outlook 2019 Brian Pearce Chief Economist 12 December 2018 Million barrels a day US$ per barrel Are the markets signalling recession ahead? 60 55 Business confidence (left scale) FTSE
More informationInscrutable OPEC? A Production Test of the Cartel Hypothesis
USAEE Houston Chapter Monthly Luncheon Meeting March 10, 2005 Inscrutable OPEC? A Production Test of the Cartel Hypothesis James L. Smith Department of Finance Southern Methodist University Dallas, TX
More informationEconomic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
More informationMUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors
MUSTAFA MOHATAREM Chief Economist, General Motors INTRODUCTION The U.S. economy continues to grow at a gradual but also erratic pace The current recovery is one of the slowest in the post-wwii U.S. history.
More informationGrasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy
Ralph Miliband Series on the Restructuring of World Power Grasshoppers, Ants and Locusts: the future of the world economy Martin Wolf Associate editor and chief economics commentator, Financial Times Professor
More informationNYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference
NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference Industry Update: The Statistical Reality Presented by Randy Smith, Chairman and Founder, STR Global Lodging Performance Global Regions Occupancy
More informationShifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook. February 1, 2011
Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook February 1, 2011 Today s Objectives Endeavor to provide a broad context for today s program by briefly touching on: Some good news Some not
More informationMacro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation
Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8%
More informationGlobal Containerboard Outlook
Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper
More informationTable of Contents. Acknowledgements... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms... ix Overview... xi
Table of Contents Acknowledgements... vii Abbreviations and Acronyms... ix Overview... xi Chapter 1. 2008 A Year of Wild Fluctuations in the Global Economy...1 Introduction...1 The Triple Crisis Fuel-Food-Financial...1
More informationOutlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets
Outlook for Global Recovered Paper Markets Latin American Conference August 2016 Kurt Schaefer VP, Fiber Hannah Zhao Senior Economist, Recovered Paper Copyright 2016 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationMinistry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia
Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia Economic Growth 42,000.0 36,000.0 30,000.0 24,000.0 18,000.0 12,000.0 6,000.0 0.0 GDP AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 7.2% 6.2% 6.4% 4.6% 4.8% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8%
More informationAfter the British referendum
Future of Europe After the British referendum Broader issues for the UK and the EU David Marsh, Managing Director, OMFIF 27 October 2016 Nicosia 1 European politics moves against integration A new phase
More informationRISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE. (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last?
RISI EUROPEAN CONFERENCE (Barcelona, 6 March 2018) The European Economy Things look good just now. Can this last? Andrea Boltho Magdalen College University of Oxford and Oxford Economics CONCLUSIONS OF
More informationSusan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator
A MACROECONOMIC PORTRAIT OF THE PACIFIC: A Presentation for PEGASeS August 16, 2007 Susan J. Adams, PhD IMF-PFTAC Coordinator Compiled by the IMF Asia and Pacific Department Edited by PFTAC OUTLINE OF
More informationThe World Picture A View for Sea Trade
The World Picture A View for Sea Trade Presented to: AAPA Marine Terminal Management October 20, 2008 Baltimore, MD Presented by: Scott Sigman Principal, Global Trade & Transportation IHS Global Insight
More informationYour Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018
Your Texas Economy Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018 Overview of Texas Economy The Texas economy is growing robustly in 2018 2018 job growth through October is 2.9 percent annualized compared to 2.1
More informationThe Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers
More informationBob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
More informationOpportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip?
Opportunities in a Challenging Global Business Environment: Can the World Avoid a Double-Dip? Ross DeVol Chief Research Officer (310) 570 4615 rdevol@milkeninstitute.org www.milkeninstitute.org Presentation
More informationAirlines, the economy and air transport demand
Airlines, the economy and air transport demand Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA www.iata.org/economics Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 1 Returns for airlines investors lower this year;
More informationThe U. S. Economic Outlook: Robert J. Gordon
The U. S. Economic Outlook: Upside and Risks Robert J. Gordon Ottawa a Economics Association Ottawa, a, September 14, 2017 Immigration Medical Care My Policy Package: Be Like Canada d University Tuition
More informationFuture Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
More informationTelling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards Analytical Studies Branch April 20, 2017
Recent Developments in the Canadian Economy: How have the decline in oil prices and a weaker Canadian dollar affected Canada s economy? www.statcan.gc.ca Telling Canada s story in numbers Elizabeth Richards
More information