Whither Demand? - Growth In Prospect
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1 Whither Demand? - Growth In Prospect Tecnon OrbiChem Marketing Seminar at APIC 2015 Seoul, 7 May 2015 Roger Lee
2 WORLD GDP GROWTH % AAGR Actual Forecast 2008 Current Forecast Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
3 WORLD GDP GROWTH (Billion Constant 2000 Dollars) 60.0 Actual Forecast Current Forecast Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
4 WORLD GDP GROWTH BY REGION (Billion Constant 2005 Dollars) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
5 WORLD GDP GROWTH BY REGION (Billion Constant 2005 Dollars) 6,000 World 4,000 2, , Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
6 WORLD PETROCHEMICAL CONSUMPTION vs GDP & Consumption (Million Tons) Phthalic Anhydride Orthoxylene Acrylic Acid Adipic Acid Adiponitrile Maleic Anhydride GDP (Billion 2000 $)
7 WORLD PETROCHEMICAL CONSUMPTION vs GDP & Consumption (Million Tons) VCM PTA Paraxylene MEG Acetic Acid Caprolactam GDP (Billion 2000 $)
8 WORLD PHTHALIC ANHYDRIDE CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
9 WORLD ADIPIC ACID CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
10 WORLD ACRYLIC ACID CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
11 WORLD MALEIC ANHYDRIDE CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
12 WORLD VCM CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
13 WORLD PARAXYLENE CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
14 WORLD MONOETHYLENE GLYCOL CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
15 WORLD CAPROLACTAM CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
16 WORLD ACETIC ACID CONSUMPTION Million Tons Forecast
17 GDP vs CONSUMPTION GROWTH SHARE VCM MEG Paraxylene Acetic Acid Acrylic Acid Phthalic Anhydride Caprolactam Adipic Acid Maleic Anhydride GDP N & S America 35% 13% 19% -6% -1% 20% 6% 4% 3% 15% Europe 29% 5% 30% 6% -10% 18% 12% 3% 5% 12% 8% 10% 3% -2% 12% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1% 9% 5% 5% 5% 15% 8% 16% 26% 18% 13% 7% 5% 8% 32% 0% 14% 17% 23% 3% 5% 12% 62% 36% 65% 85% 36% 47% 41% 68% 54% Asia 29% 71% 49% 102% 99% 58% 80% 90% 88% 72% World 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: World Bank, Probe Economics & Tecnon OrbiChem
18 GDP vs CONSUMPTION GROWTH SHARE VCM MEG Paraxylene Acetic Acid Acrylic Acid Phthalic Anhydride Caprolactam Adipic Acid Maleic Anhydride GDP N & S America 27% 10% -402% -12% -12% 9% 7% 4% 6% 12% Europe 4% -1% -196% 18% -32% 1% -11% 7% 4% -8% 11% 7% 15% 0% 13% 9% 9% 1% 8% 9% 19% 6% 66% 3% 29% 9% 18% 4% 13% 4% 6% -14% 72% -5% -38% 20% 2% -24% 1% 0% 32% 93% 545% 96% 141% 52% 74% 108% 68% 83% Asia 57% 84% 683% 94% 132% 81% 94% 88% 83% 87% World 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: World Bank, Probe Economics & Tecnon OrbiChem
19 CONCLUSIONS GDP growth stalled for 3 years as a result of the 2008 financial crisis. World GDP growth is still at least 0.5% below that forecast in early Two thirds of global GDP growth since 2008 has been in the world outside the Americas and Europe, compared with one third beforehand. Following the hiatus, many petrochemicals have resumed growth at or above previous GDP multipliers, but some have not. For the products considered here, over 80% of consumption growth since 2008 has been in Asia. For some products the proportion is much higher. Europe has suffered most, contributing only 4% to global GDP and recording losses in most categories of consumption growth since With entering a New Normal period of lower growth, Europe struggling to recover and crude oil price uncertainty putting a damper on investment, it is difficult to see a return to pre-crisis spending levels occurring any time soon.
20 ..your source of expert chemical industry knowledge
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