Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook. 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016
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1 Short and Medium-Term Oil Market Outlook 13 th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum - 25 May 2016
2 Oil world changed on Nov. 27 th 2014 $/bbl 120 Brent crude oil Copyright 2016 Argus Media 20 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 OPEC doesn t cut production to support prices. The market will find the price. Brent falls from $80/bbl to $70/bbl. At Dec. 4th 2015 meeting OPEC removes production quotas & price falls from $43/bbl to $27/bbl.
3 Where are we now? Demand growth is solid China s growth rate slows India s growth rate picks up Global supply growth falling away OPEC & non-opec growth down Non-OPEC falls sharply led by US Iran is stand-out country Market getting close to balance Prices reach 4-month high Looking further ahead
4 Demand growth revised upwards in 1Q16 kb/d 2500 Global Oil Demand Growth, y-o-y Q2014 4Q2014 3Q2015 Japan China India US Total
5 Indian demand races ahead kb/d Indian Demand Growth, y-o-y Q2015 3Q2015 1Q2016 LPG/naphtha FO/other Gasoil/Jet/Kerosene Gasoline Total
6 India takes the lead in oil demand growth
7 China slowing growth but still strong 12 mb/d Chinese Oil Demand 9% 8 6% 4 3% 0 1Q2014 3Q2014 1Q2015 3Q2015 1Q2016 0% LPG/naphtha Gasoil Growth (RHS) % Gasoline Others
8 OECD momentum evaporates kb/d OECD Oil Demand Growth, y-o-y Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe total
9 Outages & low prices take toll on supply mb/d OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply Year-on-Year Change Jan 14 Jun 14 Nov 14 Apr 15 Sep 15 Feb 16 OPEC Crude OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Total Supply
10 Non-OPEC supply falling fast Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y Change mb/d Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 Other North America Total
11 US supply growth vanishes mb/d 2.0 US Crude Supply - Yearly Change Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
12 OPEC pumps at robust rate mb/d OPEC Growth y-o-y Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Other OPEC Iraq Saudi Arabia Iran OPEC
13 Iran only major growth in OPEC mb/d Iran Crude Supply
14 OECD stocks draw in February mb 3,100 OECD Total Oil Stocks 3,000 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg
15 Market heading towards balance mb/d Demand/Supply Balance until 4Q16* mb/d *OPEC crude production assumed to ramp up to average 33.0 mb/d in 2Q16, 33.2 mb/d in 3Q16 and 33.1 mb/d in 4Q Q09 3Q10 1Q12 3Q13 1Q15 3Q16 Impl. stock ch.&misc (RHS) Demand Supply*
16 Oil rallies to 4-month high near $45/bbl $/bbl 120 Benchmark Crude Prices Copyright 2016 Argus Media 20 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 WTI Cushing N. Sea Dated Dubai
17 Looking ahead to 2021 Demand growth solid at 1.2 mb/d through 2021 Production growth slashed as investment cuts bite Crude trade shifts more and more eastwards Huge uncertainties OPEC production policy Non-OPEC World economy Efficiency gains
18 World oil demand growth slows Europe FSU Americas Middle East Asia/Pacific Africa (kb/d) OECD/IEA, 2016 Cools from 1.7%/yr in to 1.2%/yr in
19 mb/d mb/d Non-OECD drives global demand OECD vs NonOECD Total products OECD OECD vs NonOECD Motor Gasoline NonOECD Despite concerns about slowing Chinese demand, overall non-oecd momentum remains strong
20 mb/d Chinese demand growth slips a gear 14 20% 12 18% 16% 10 14% 8 12% 10% 6 8% 4 6% 2 4% 2% 0 0% LPG Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet & Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Residual Fuel Other Products y-o-y Growth (RHS) Economy slows and shifts from industry to services
21 kb/d Indian oil use races ahead LPG Naphtha Motor Gasoline Jet & Kerosene Gasoil/Diesel Other Products Motorists take to the roads
22 mb/d OECD wanes, after rare growth in Cumulative Demand Growth OECD NonOECD (excl BRICS) BRICS Falling OECD demand trend returns post-2016
23 mb/d Rampant US gains ease then reverse 25 4% LPG 20 2% Naphtha 15 0% Motor Gasoline Jet & Kerosene 10-2% Gasoil/Diesel 5-4% 0-6% Residual Fuel Other Products y-o-y Growth (RHS) 0.3 mb/d gain of 2015, more than halves in 2016
24 USD billion USD billion Upstream oil capex cut for 2nd year America 2002 N America 2008 S 2010 Europe Australia 2016 Middle East Russia Asia Africa Drop of 17% in 2016 follows 24% reduction in 2015
25 mb/d World supply growth plunges OPEC OPEC Non-OPEC Non-OPEC World * shows actual output growth assumes Iran ramp-up. OPEC capacity increases thereafter growth slows to 4.1 mb/d vs 11 mb/d in
26 kb/d Non-OPEC supply growth collapses Other non-opec China Latin America FSU Other Asia Europe OECD Americas Total
27 mb/d US LTO takes biggest hit for now Bakken Eagle Ford W. Texas Niobrara Other LTO Output to drop by 800 kb/d over
28 US still the world s growth engine Selected sources of non-opec supply change kb/d Gains in Brazil, Canada; drops in Russia, China
29 mb/d Post-sanctions Iran leads OPEC gains Actual production , capacity thereafter Output to rise 1 mb/d to 3.9 mb/d by 2021
30 mb/d Middle East dominates OPEC growth Iran Iraq UAE Other Total OPEC
31 Surplus erodes in 2017 Global balance mb/d mb/d Implied Stock Change World Demand World Supply Tightening market drives price recovery - $80/bbl in 2020?
32 Conclusions Global oil supply growth is plunging, as low prices take their toll Iran leads OPEC gains over the forecast period Despite a near-term dip, U.S. production rises to an alltime high While global oil demand growth is slowing, oil use crosses the symbolic 100 mb/d mark towards the end of the decade The availability of resources that can be easily and quickly tapped set to limit the scope of price rallies at least in the near-term The historic investment cuts now being seen raise the odds of oil-security surprises in the not-too-distant-future
33 IEA Oil Market Analysis The leading oil market report since 1983, with the latest data and outlook. Market analysis underpins the IEA s emergency response mandate Five-year outlook for supply & demand trends. Complements short-term OMR and long-term World Energy Outlook analysis.
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