Oil Crises and Climate Challenges 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries

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1 Crises and 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries Fridtjof Unander, International Energy Agency ISED Meeting, UN, 13 September 2004

2 Aim of the Study Review of trends in energy use and CO 2 emissions since IEA was founded 30 years ago Based on IEA Energy Indicator Database Looks in detail at how energy efficiency and factors such as economic activity and structure, lifestyle, prices and fuel mix have shaped developments Provide a state-of-the-art publication on energy use developments

3 Sector & End-use Coverage Total Economy Residential Travel Freight Services Manufacturing Space Heat Water Heat Cooking Lighting Refrigerators Freezers Clothes Washers Clothes Dryers Cars & Light Trucks Buses Passenger Rail Inland Air Travel Trucks Services total Freight Rail Domestic Shipping Paper & Pulp Industrial Chemicals Non-metallic Minerals Iron & Steel Non-ferrous Metals Food & Beverages Other Dishwashers Other Appliances

4 How to Understand Aggregate Trends? IEA s Decomposition Approach A S j I j Energy Service E = A? Sj * Ij Energy Savings sectoral activity sectoral structure or mix of activities within a sub-sector j energy intensity of each sub-sector or end-use j Use Laspeyres indices to follow changes over time Can be extended to economy-wide indices (weighting sector indices at base-year values)

5 Key Findings Significant energy savings achieved through the late 1980s. Since 1990 energy savings rates have slowed in all sectors. Only a few countries still show a strong decoupling of CO 2 emissions from GDP growth after price shocks in the 1970s did more to reduce emissions and to increase efficiency than achieved by policies implemented in the 1990s. As a consequence, CO 2 emissions are now growing rapidly along with oil and electricity demand.

6 Energy Demand in IEA exajoules Actual energy use Moderate growth in demand since 1973

7 Energy Demand and Savings IEA Additional energy use without savings 50% exajoules Actual energy use Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher

8 IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings Average Annual % Growth 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savings Energy Savings Actual Energy Use 0,0% Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth

9 Economy-wide Intensity Effect 110% 1973 energy intensity effect = 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Japan US EUR-8 Intensity effect fell by about 30% in all three regions

10 110% Energy Intensity Effects by Sector IEA energy intensity effects = 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Freight Transport Passenger Travel Total Service Households Manufacturing Declines in energy intensities have slowed in all sectors since the late 1980s

11 Changes in Final Energy Consumption , 1998, IEA-11 2,5% Average % Change per Year 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% Manufacturing Households Services Travel Freight Total Manufacturing only sector with decline in energy use

12 Manufacturing Output IEA-11 Manufacturing Value - Added, 1973=100% 210% 190% 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% Manufacturing Output Raw Materials Share of Manufacturing Output Manufacturing Share of GDP Manufacturing roughly maintains its share of GDP 29% 27% 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% Manufacturing Share of GDP & Raw Materials Share of Manufacturing Value-Added

13 IEA-11 Energy Intensities, Value-Added and Energy Shares Intensity (MJ/1995 US$, PPP) Energy Intensities 1998 Value Added Shares 1998 Energy Shares 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Energy & Value-Added Shares (%) 0 Paper & Pulp Chemicals Nonmetallic Minerals Primary Metals Food, Beverages, Tobacco Other Manufacturing Total Manufacturing Energy-intensive industries contribute little to overall output, but has a large share of total energy use 0%

14 Energy Savings and Structural Change IEA - 11 Manufacturing Average % Change per Year 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Actual Energy Output Actual/Output Structure Intensity -4% -5% Recent trends: Slowing decline in intensities, but important impact from structural changes

15 Manufacturing Energy Intensity (Adjusted for Structural Changes) 110% 1973 structure adjusted intensity = 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Japan US IEA-11 EUR-8 Declines in energy intensities slowed markedly since late-1980s

16 Changes in Demand by Sector IEA -11 3% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Manufacturing Households Service Travel Freight Total Growth in transport offset by declines in stationary sectors

17 Car Ownership and Income Car Ownership (vehicle/capita) Personal Consumption Expenditures per Capita ( US$, PPP/capita) US Italy Australia Sweden France Finland UK Norway Netherlands Denmark Japan Strong growth most places, slowly leveling off in the US

18 Energy for Cars (IEA-11) Factors shaping development % Average % Change per Year 2% 1% 0% -1% Cars per Capita km/year per car -2% Strong growth in car ownership while the use of each car has changed little

19 Energy for Cars (IEA-11) Factors shaping development % Average % Change per Year 2% 1% 0% -1% Cars per Capita km/year per car Fuel Intensity Car Energy Use per capita -2% Decline in fuel intensity has slowed.

20 Energy for Cars (IEA-11) Factors shaping development % Average % Change per Year 2% 1% 0% -1% Cars per Capita km/year per car Fuel Intensity Effect Car Energy Use per capita -2% Net result is more rapid growth in fuel demand after 1990 despite lower growth in car ownership

21 Car Stock-average Fuel Intensity Fleet average fuel intensity of cars (litres/100 vehicle-km) US Canada Australia Japan Norway UK Netherlands Finland France Denmark Italy Strong decline in the US until 1990, no change since then

22 New Car Fuel Intensity 13 New car fuel intensity (litres/100 vehicle-km) US (Light trucks) Australia Japan US (cars) Sweden UK Germany Italy France Small changes since early 1980s, but positive development recently in EU and Japan

23 Car Fuel Use per Capita vs. Price, Fuel use per capita (gigajoules/capita) US Canada Japan Australia Germany Denmark Weighted real fuel price, including taxes (US$/litre) UK Finland Norway Sweden France Italy Netherlands Energy use for cars is higher where prices are lower

24 Travel and Intensities vs. Fuel price Thousand vehicle-km per capita US Italy Finland UK Netherlands Sweden Norway Denmark France Germany Australia Canada Japan Weighted Real Fuel Price (US$/litre) Fleet Average Vehicle Fuel Intensity (litres/100vkm Japan Sweden UK Canada Norway Australia Italy Germany Finland Netherlands US France Denmark Weighted Real Fuel Price (US$/litre) Higher fuel prices correlate with lower fuel intensity

25 Freight Energy per tonne-km by Mode 5 4 Trucks Rail Ships 3 Megajoules / tonne-km US Australia Japan EUR-8 UK France Germany Trucks use far more energy per tonne-km than rail or ships Italy

26 Electricity Demand by Sector, IEA-11 5,0% 100% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 4,5% 4,0% 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Manufacturing Households Service Total % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 22% 31% 31% 33% 45% 35% Strong growth in electricity demand in all stationary sectors

27 House Area and Income Square meters of house area per capita Australia Canada Denmark Finland France Italy Japan Norway Sweden UK US Personal consumption expenditures per capita ( US$,PPP) Living space gets bigger as we get richer

28 Energy for Space Heating (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 2% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 1% 0% -1% -2% Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect -3% Bigger homes and fewer people per home steady drivers of space heating demand

29 Energy for Space Heating (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 2% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 1% 0% -1% -2% Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect Conversion Efficiency Intensity Effect -3% Declines in intensities are slowing.

30 Energy for Space Heating (IEA-11) Factors shaping development 2% Average annual percent change (%/yr) 1% 0% -1% -2% Dwelling Size Effect Occupancy Effect Conversion Efficiency Intensity Effect Space Heating per Capita -3% Net result is an increase in per capita heating demand after 1990

31 Household Electricity Demand IEA-11 7 Electricity use (exajoules) Appliances Lighting Cooking Water Heating Space Heating Appliances key driver of electricity demand

32 Energy Costs and Savings Falling prices and successful energy savings have helped reducing energy budgets for industry and private consumers since the early 1980s: uenergy s share of production cost in industry fell as much as 50% uenergy cost as share of income for private homes fell 20-50% ufuel cost per km for cars fell by 20 to 60% Can explain less incentive to sustain energy savings after 1990.

33 Share of Energy Expenditures in Subsector Intermediate Product Costs Share of energy expenditures in sub-sectoral intermediate product costs (%) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% France Japan UK US France Japan UK US Paper & Pulp Chemicals Nonmetallic Minerals Primary Metals Other Manufacturing The share of energy in total production costs varies significantly across countries and sub-sectors, but has fallen everywhere

34 Fuel Cost for Driving Private Cars US$ (real terms, including taxes)/car-km 0.14 Fuel Cost (1995 US$, PPP/Car-km) Fuel cost per km have generally fallen since the early 1980s NORWAY GERMANY JAPAN FRANCE DENMARK US

35 Household Energy Expenditures as Share of Income Energy s share of total personal consumption expenditures (%) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Sweden Denmark Norway Canada France UK Japan US IEA households today spend considerably less of their incomes on energy than in the early 1980s

36 IEA CO 2 Emissions % CO2 Emissions in 1990 = 100% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% 0.1%/year 1.1%/year 85% 80% Recent trends show steady increase

37 IEA CO 2 Emissions per GDP CO2/GDP (kg CO2/USD) %/year -1.2 %/year Rate of decline has slowed since 1990

38 IEA-11 CO2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings Average Annual % Growth 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% Less carbon in fuel mix Energy Savings Actual Emissions 0,0% Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990

39 CO2 Emissions and Kyoto US, Japan and EU Average Annual % Change 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% -1,0% -1,5% -2,0% (Kyoto) -2,5% -3,0% US Japan EU Recent development in stark contrast to what is implied by the Kyoto targets

40 CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings Average Annual % Change 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% US Energy service demand effect Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings EU-7-2% -3% Growth in the demand for energy services higher after 1990 in the US, opposite trend in the EU

41 CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings 4% US EU-7 Average Annual % Change 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings Fuel Mix Effect -3% Significant reduction of emissions due to a less carbon intensive fuel mix in EU

42 CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings 4% US EU-7 Average Annual % Change 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings Fuel Mix Effect Energy Savings Effect Slowing energy savings rates.

43 CO2 Emissions in the US and EU Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings 4% US EU-7 Average Annual % Change 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Constant Fuel Mix and no Savings Fuel Mix Effect Energy Savings Effect Actual Emissions Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990

44 IEA End-use Data Modelling Applications World Energy Outlook: uallows for disaggregated demand side representation in WEM uallows for estimation of policy impacts in Alternative Scenario Energy Technology Perspectives Project uprovides basis for demand side in global MARKAL model u Energy Model Builder Linking energy statistics and other data to demand modules by sector