Report from the Council

Transcription

1 Report from the Council NW Hydroelectric Association Spokane WA October 30, 2014 Tom Karier NW Power and Conservation Council

2 Topics 1. Highlights of the 6 th Plan (2010) 2. What actually happened 3. What s new for the 7 th Plan 4. Comments: Environmental Methodology and High Level Indicators 5. Fish and Wildlife Program (reintroduction and protected areas) 6. Treaty update

3 6 th Power Plan: New Resource Additions Cumulative Resource (Average Megawatts) Demand Response Simple-Cycle Gas Combined-Cycle Gas Renewables Efficiency Expected value build out; actual build out depends on future conditions. 3

4 Actual Events: Efficiency Exceeded Targets Every Year Since 2005 Annual Savings (MWa) Target Actual

5 Actual Events: Average Utility Levelized Cost of Conservation Remains Low Levelized Cost of Conservation (2006$/MWh) $20 $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $16 $15 $11 $12 $15 $17 $18 $18 $17 $

6 Efficiency (and a slow economy) contributed to flat load growth for more than a decade GWa Load Net of Efficiency Efficiency Resource 1980 Load

7

8 The 7 th Power Plan Will include new load forecast and resources consider capacity, adequacy, and imports include scenarios to achieve a coal free and carbon free future take into account CA, BC, markets, provide for an adequate, economical, efficient and reliable power supply

9 7 th Plan will identify adequate capacity Council Standard: LOLP Maximum is 5% 10% 8% 1,553 MW of New Gas-fired Capacity from LOLP (percent) 6% 4% 2%??? Changes Load = 650 MWa Gas = 493 MW +other changes 5% Changes Load = 520 MWa Gas = 660 MW +other changes 6% MW Leads to 5% LOLP 0% Operating Year 9

10 7 th Plan: How to meet capacity when most expected loss of load is for short durations (2019) 140 Event length (hrs) Summary Table Duration Probability 1 hour 16 % 1-2 hours 44 % 1-4 hours 55 % 1-6 hours 69 % % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Probability of Exceeding 10

11 The Council invites your comments on two issue papers: quantifying the environmental costs and benefits of generating and energy efficiency resources proposed metrics to track our progress in meeting the goals of the Council s power plans Due Friday October 31.

12 Council s 2014 Fish and Wildlife Program Reintroduction above Grand Coulee Research and Monitoring Protected Areas (Milions) BPA Cumulative Fish and Wildlife Costs Thousands 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Total Salmon and Steelhead Returns to Bonneville Dam Power purchases Forgone revenues Reimbursable expenses Directprogram Fixed expenses

13 Columbia River Treaty On Hold (NW recommendation: Canadian Entitlement) The Entity estimated U.S. benefits from the Treaty to be about one-tenth of the current Canadian entitlement. Of the $250 million to $350 million worth of power annually delivered to Canada, Washington state pays 70 percent, in tshe including 27.5% from the Mid-Columbia PUDs. Recommendation: The United States should pursue rebalancing the power benefits between the two countries. Canada is deriving substantially greater value than the United States.

14 Questions Tom Karier NW Power and Conservation Council (Washington) (509)

15 Energy Efficiency Was The Region s Second Largest Resource in 2012 Natural Gas 7% Geothermal <1% Nuclear 4% Wind 6% Biomass 1% Hydropower 46% Energy Efficiency 17% Coal 12% Based on 2012 Actual Dispatch and Hydro Resource Output; 2013 EIA data will be released in October/November of

16 Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Almost 5600 MWa of Savings 6,000 Cumulative Savings (MWa) Federal Standards 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 State Codes NEEA Programs BPA and Utility Programs

17 Utility/SBC-Funded Savings Equaled 1.3% of Regional Electricity Sales in 2013 More Than Double the US Average Share of Retail Electricity Sales 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% * US Average * 2013 is based on 2012 loads data from EIA data is expected in October/November 2014

18 Thousands Total Salmon and Steelhead Returns to Bonneville Dam 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

19 PAGE 12 > 13TH ANNUAL REPORT TO THE NORTHWEST GOVERNORS > FISH & WILDLIFE COSTS Cumulative Costs , By Major Spending Area (Milions) Total of $13.7 billion does not reflect $2.42 billion in obligations to capital projects or $1.88 billion in credits Power purchases Forgone revenues Reimbursableexpenses Direct program Fixed expenses Source: Bonneville Power Administration for figures 1A and 1B.