Drought: What is the Status?
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1 Drought: What is the Status? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Presented at 2005 Peak to Prairie Landscape Symposium, February 11, 2005, Colorado Springs, Colorado Prepared by Odie Bliss
2 Our climate is great sort of
3 Solar Energy Drives Our Climate Avondale, June 28 July 3, 2004 CoAgMet station, yearly cycle, any station Avondale, June 28 July 3, 2004
4 Colorado Springs Average Temperatures 90 Colorado Springs Average Temperatures ( ) Temperature (degrees F) Tmax Tmin Tmean Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
5 Comparison of Average Temperatures 100 Colorado Springs, Denver, Pueblo, Canon City and Salida Average Max and Min Temperatures ( averages) CO Springs Denver Pueblo Canon City Buena Vista Temperature (F) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
6 Pike s Peak vs. Colorado Springs Pike's Peak ( averages) vs. Colorado Springs ( averages) Max and Min Temperature Differences Temperature (F) Colorado Springs Pike's Peak -5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
7 Summer Temperature Perspective
8 Summer Temperature Perspective
9 Winter Temperature Perspective
10 Winter Temperature Perspective
11 2004 Daily Temperatures for Colorado Springs Colorado Springs Daily Temperatures for Tmax Tmin 80 Temperature (degrees F) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
12 Mean Monthly Pan Evaporation Average Monthly Pan Evaporation 14 Pueblo Cherry Creek Reservoir Lake George Note: Cherry Creek Reservoir values are estimated from reservoir losses from November through March 12 Evaporation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
13 Colorado Springs and Pueblo Average Wind Speed Colorado Springs and Pueblo Average Monthly Wind Speed (mph) 14 Colorado Springs Pueblo Average Monthly Wind Speed (mph) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
14 Precipitation The most variable of all!
15 Precipitation: Annual Climatology ( ) Copyright 2004, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University - Map created Feb
16 Colorado Average Precipitation
17 Colorado Springs Monthly Average Precipitation ( ) Colorado Springs Average Precipitation ( ) Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
18 Average Monthly Precipitation Compared to Mountain Locations Average Monthly Precip of Colorado Springs Compared to Mountain Locations 6 Colorado Springs Wolf Creek Pass Aspen Vail Steamboat 5 Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
19 Average Monthly Precipitation Compared to Other Front Range Cities Average Monthly Precip of Colorado Springs Compared to Front Range Locations 4.0 Colorado Springs Trinidad Pueblo Denver Longmont 3.5 Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
20 Average Monthly Precipitation Compared to Eastern Plains Locations Average Monthly Precip of Colorado Springs Compared to Eastern Plains Locations Colorado Springs Sterling Limon Burlington Lamar Rocky Ford Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
21 Comparing averages is instructive, but, are we ever average?
22 Colorado Springs Daily Precipitation Accumulation for 1999, 2002, and 2004 Colorado Springs Accumulated Daily Precipitation Normal 25.0 Precipitation (inches) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
23 A Few Storms Contribute The Majority of Our Annual Precipitation The difference between a very dry and very wet year is often just a few storms. March 2003 Snowstorm in Fort Collins
24 What Does History Show Us?
25 Statewide Mean Annual Temperature History Colorado Average Temperatures 50.0 Ave Annual Ave Temp Temperature (degree F) 40.0 Year
26 Colorado Springs Average Temperature History Colorado Springs Mean Yearly Temperature Temperature (F) Year
27 Colorado Springs Summer and Winter Average Temperatures Summer and Winter Average Temperatures Summer (Jun-Aug) Winter (Dec-Feb) Year Temperature (F)
28 Statewide Annual Precipitation History 25 Colorado Total Yearly Precipitation Year Precipitation (inches)
29 Colorado Springs Precipitation History Colorado Springs Water Year Precipitation through Colorado College Airport WATER YEAR Precipitation (inches)
30 Colorado Springs Growing Season (May Sep) Precipitation History Colorado Springs Growing Season (May-Sep) Colorado College Airport Year Precipitation Totals (inches)
31 2003 Porphyry Creek April 1 Snowpack History Porphyry Creek Snow Course April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) Year SWE (inches)
32 Arkansas River at Canon City Streamflow History Arkansas River at Canon City Streamflow Values through Arkansas River 7-year running mean Average Year Streamflow (Cubic Ft per Second)
33 Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 3 month SPI ( ) Year Fraction (in percent)
34 Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI ( ) Year Fraction (in percent)
35 OK then So what is the current status of Drought??
36 1999 Water Year Precipitation
37 September 1999 Drought Monitor Map
38 2000 Water Year Precipitation
39 October 2000 Drought Monitor Map
40 2001 Water Year Precipitation
41 October 2001 Drought Monitor Map
42 2002 Water Year Precipitation
43 October 2002 Drought Monitor Map
44 2002 Daily Streamflow Colorado River near Dotsero, CO 2002 Discharge Mean Discharge Discharge (1000 CFS) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
45 2003 Water Year Precipitation
46 September 2003 Drought Monitor Map
47 2003 Daily Streamflow
48 Where Do We Stand Now?
49 2004 Water Year Precipitation
50 Growing Season (May-Sep) 2004 Precipitation as Percent of Average
51 US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2004
52 2004 Daily Streamflow
53 WY2004 Temperature Departures Water Year Departure from average, degree F Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys
54 Arkansas Basin Snowpack
55 Reservoir Levels Colorado Statewide Reservoir Levels on October 1st for Years Percent of Average Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct
56 Colorado Springs 2005 Water Year Precipitation 30 Colorado Springs 2005 Water Year (Oct '04 - Jan '05) 30 Year Averages Max Year Min Year Water Year Accumulated Period of Record Average Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
57 What Comes Next? Do We Really Know?
58 Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Last update: 8 February
59 El Nino Forecast
60 Temperature Feb-Apr 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center
61 Precipitation Feb-Apr 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center
62 Temperature Mar-May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center
63 Precipitation Mar-May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center
64 Temperature Jun-Aug 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center
65 Precipitation Jun-Aug 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center
66 For Colorado Springs, Average Precipitation = ~ 17 inches (WY2004 = inches) Average Evaporation = ~ > 24 inches therefore, Drought is NEVER really over.
67 While we may not be able to predict it, at least we should know what we get!
68 CoAgMet Weather Data for Agriculture Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration
69 Colorado Climate Magazine Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs
70 Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading click on Drought then click on Presentations
71 El Paso County s RainCheck Program
72
73 CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network Over 1,000 volunteers participate in rain, hail and snow measurements. More accurate maps, verifies forecasting, radar research, crop damage, drought/flooding, educational purposes.
74 CoCo RaHS Volunteers of all ages helping scientists study storms. The exploration begins in your back yard!
75 What Does It Take To Be A Volunteer? Scientific curiosity. An interest in weather and an appreciation for water. Enough unobstructed space to install a rain gauge. Two minutes a day for a good cause.
76 CoCo RaHS Simple Tools to Study Rain Rain Gauge Example Station
77 CoCo RaHS Simple Tools To Study Hail Hail Pad Damaged Hail Pad
78 Fort Collins Daily Rainfall Examples
79 Colorado Hailstorm July 10, 2002, Parker, CO One of the culprits. Damaged Hailpad.
80 How many volunteers do we need? Our goal is at least one per square mile over urbanized areas. As many as we can find in rural areas.
81 For more information visit the CoCoRaHS Web site Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program, National Science Foundation and many local charter sponsors.
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