Global Boxboard Market Review
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- Esmond Neal Holmes
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1 Global Boxboard Market Review Sailing In A World Of Volatility And Uncertainty European Conference March 2018 Alejandro Mata Senior Economist, European Forest Products Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
2 Alejandro Mata Senior Economist, European Forest Products Bachelor s degree in Engineering, MBA degree earned in 2007 Worked in business and market intelligence functions for one of Europe s leading paper producers Has been analyzing and forecasting the industry since 2009 Author of the Paper Trader Europe, Paper Packaging Monitor Europe, the European Graphic 5 Year and 15 Year Forecasts and the Packaging Paper 5 Year and 15 Year Forecasts Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 2
3 Economic Tailwind Boosting Demand Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 3
4 But What If the Wind Changes? Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 4
5 Boxboard Demand in Key Regions Boxboard Demand 2017 (Million Tonnes) Large markets, fast growing Large, mature markets Lower consumption levels, high growth Asia North America Western Europe Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East Africa Oceania 5
6 Still below pre crisis despite synchronized global economic growth Other packaging material substitutes Global Boxboard Demand Growth Million Tonnes Synchronized global growth 10% 8% 3.0 6% 2.0 4% 1.0 2% Change in consumption patterns 0.0 0% 1.0 2% 2.0 4% Demand Change % Change 6
7 7
8 % 45% 40% Speed of growth slowing down as e commerce slowly becomes mainstream Trillion USD % 23.7% 22.8% 21.6% 19.5% 18.7% 14.6% 13.0% 11.5% 10.0% 8.7% 7.4% % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Asia Pacific will remain the world s largest retail e commerce market Growth fueled by: Expanding middle class Greater mobile and internet penetration Growing competition Improving logistics and infrastructure Traditional E commerce % of Total Growth 8
9 9
10 Plastics Substitution 10
11 According to Pouch Manufacturers Offers better visual properties and personalization?? Are cheaper to produce and buy?? More environmental friendly than boxes?? They will stay for a few more years, perhaps a couple of decades, before pouch bags replace them as the sole medium to package cereals European IPEX Brent Spot (FOB), USD/Barrel GC2 GD2 11
12 Low Oil Price Is Reducing Recycling Rate Of Plastics Plastics Recycling Rate VS Oil Prices Oil prices are keeping plastic prices low More competitive vs fiber packaging Making new plastic has become less expensive than recycling 12
13 Plastic Bag Ban Map Map of countries banning plastics Banned Usage Fee Ban Failed Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13
14 Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 14
15 Overinvestment dominated the industry between 2005 and Demand Capacity Operating Rate 90% Investment has cooled down since % 100% Operating rates on the rise. However still below 90% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% Growth in Million Tonnes % 84% 82% Operating Rate 70% North America Western Europe Asia % Asia still the region with the lowest operating rates % 15
16 CHANGE (MILLION TONNES) Economic growth engine changing to consumption Restrictions on fiber side will also slowdown investment CHANGE (MILLION TONNES) European industry, on the other hand, is investing more than before Higher exports have been a key to allow for higher investment in the region Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 16
17 Chinnese Supply & Demand Growth 3, % 2,500 2, % 84.0% 82.0% ASIA 1, % 1, % 76.0% 74.0% 72.0% Economic transformation continues Consumption of Paper and Board still constrained Investment has decelerated 500 1,000 Demand Capacity OR 70.0% 68.0% Ongoing environmental issues sparkling fiber crisis Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 17
18 China is the largest buyer of PfR in the World USA +19 UK +5 EE +1 WE +3 China Middle East Japan +4 Other Asia -7 Oceania +2 Remember This? 18
19 China Banning Imports of Mixed Papers ONP, 5.2 Consequences Increase volatility in PfR prices, therefore costs most likely to remain high OCC, 16.7 MIX, 5.7 Production to suffer due to lack of fibers and high costs lower margins for producers 2016: 28.5 Million Tonnes HGR, 0.9 China will import more finished paper products to compensate 19
20 China Banning Imports of Mixed Papers How to compensate for the missing fiber? Increase domestic collection? More market pulp? Imports of finished paper products? Diverting fiber away from low margin Paper & Board grades (graphics)? 20
21 A year ago, expectations were that Chinese net exports would average over 1.7 million tonnes per year in Our new forecast shows net exports of just 1.1 million tonnes during the same period, even though global demand is coming stronger than before. 21
22 North America The recovery in the US Economy driving higher demand for boxboard Imports supplying most of the demand growth Imports affecting production 1200 US Boxboard Imports (thousand tonnes) Folding Carton Total
23 In the USA: Strengthening of the USD since 2014 The US has become an interesting destination for exporters In Europe: Prices steady for most of the period Lack of improvement in market balances In Asia: Also changing due exchange rates in 2015, latest increases due to PfR price volatility Global Recycled Cartonboard Prices (Euros per Tonne) Europe USA China 23
24 Virgin Markets Doing Better Demand doing better. Growth in liquid packaging board, cupstock) Producers benefiting from food service market (cups, takeout containers) Imports not impacting virgin boxboard markets much Capacity rising slowly Challenging Conditions On The CRB Market Demand not strong enough due to: Changing in people s buying behaviour (less processed food buying) Fiercer threat from plastics Imports rising rapidly: Most of the imports from Europe and Asia fall within recycled cartonboard in the USA Capacity fell nearly 11% in
25 Supply & Demand Growth 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% EUROPE % 89.0% 88.0% 87.0% Economic recovery underway, but uncertainties persist Virgin grades account for roughly 60% of the market Biggest challenge Europe is facing is uncertainty % Exports expected to increase Demand Capacity OR Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 25
26 Europeans Consuming More 4.0% Household Consumption More dining out At home YEARLY PERCENTAGE CHANGE 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Total Food Restaurants Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 26
27 50 Production in the EU Manufacturing Industry Pharma Still, pharma is leading the recovery Pharma did not even declined after the Great Recession Pharma is more associated with virgin boxboard grades Percentage change relative to the first quarter of 2008 Source: Eurostat Mar 08 Aug 08 Jan 09 Jun 09 Nov 09 Apr 10 Sep 10 Feb 11 Jul 11 Dec 11 May 12 Oct 12 Mar 13 Aug 13 Jan 14 Jun 14 Nov 14 Apr 15 Sep 15 Feb 16 Jul 16 Dec 16 May 17 Automotive Food & Drinks Manufacturing Machinery & Equipment Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 27
28 Kotkamills Folding Boxboard 400,000 (FI) Dobrush Virgin Cartonboard 200,000 (BLR) Gruvön Virgin Cartonboard 550,000 (SE) Husum Folding Boxboard 400,000 (SE) Kama Folding Boxboard 220,000 (RU) 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% European Cartonboard Operating Rates 1. Delays and cancellation in upcoming capacity increases 2. Europe exporting more than before (China effect) After Before Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 28
29 China Fiber Ban Pushing Exports 5 4 NET EXPORTS, MILLION TONNES W. Europe E. Europe 29
30 Asian Prices Rising The Most in Strengthening of the USD Virgin Cartonboard (Euros per Tonne) Higher market pulp prices Europe USA China Europe exporting more to the United States Exporting to Asia has become more interesting than before due to rising Asian prices in 2017 Europe remains one of the lowest cost regions to produce virgin boxboard Million Tonnes Latin America North America Europe Asia
31 Questions? 31
32 Thank you! For more information: Asian Graphic Paper 5 Year Forecast Asian Pulp and Paper Monitor Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 32
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