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1 The Economic Roller Coaster: Where Have We Been? And Where Are We Going? Thomas F. Siems, Ph.D. Senior Economist and Director of Economic Outreach Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Summit Dallas Fed June 12, 2012 The views expressed are those of the speaker and should not necessarily be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.

2 The US Economic Roller Coaster Where have we been? What s different about the most recent recession and recovery? How does our region compare? What s different regionally vs. nationally? Where are we going? What are the risks to the recovery?

3 The US Economic Roller Coaster Where have we been? What s different about the most recent recession and recovery? How does our region compare? What s different regionally vs. nationally? Where are we going? What are the risks to the recovery?

4 Anatomy of the Business Cycle The Business Cycle: An economic roller coaster of fluctuations ti in aggregate economic activity Recessions: Peak to Trough Expansions: Trough to Peak Long-run GDP growth rate: ~3% per year

5 A Economic Roller Coaster Bar Code?

6 U.S. Business Cycle Black = Months in Contraction (Recession)

7 Winston s Wisdom #1 Winston Churchill It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.

8 Length of Recessions Months

9 Depth of Recessions

10 New Dallas Fed FIRM Publication!

11 Death of the 2008 Recession Billions, 2005 $ :Q3 new all-time high Real GDP -5.1% 9 quarters '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

12 GDP Roller Coaster NBER Recession Peak = 100 Range for 6 Recessions from Peak Quarters from Peak

13 GDP Roller Coaster NBER Recession Peak = 100 Range for 6 Recessions from Recession Peak Quarters from Peak

14 GDP Roller Coaster NBER Recession Peak = 100 Range for 6 Recessions from Recession 1991 Recession Peak Quarters from Peak

15 GDP Roller Coaster NBER Recession Peak = 100 Range for 6 Recessions from Recession 1991 Recession Recession Peak Quarters from Peak

16 J b Still a Long Jobs: L Way W to t Go! G! Payroll Employment (in Thousands) % % May , '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

17 Jobs Roller Coaster: Typical Cycles Range for 6 Recessions from Peak Months from Peak

18 Jobs Roller Coaster Range for 6 Recessions from Recession Peak Months from Peak

19 Jobs Roller Coaster Range for 6 Recessions from Recession Recession Peak Months from Peak

20 Jobs Roller Coaster Range for 6 Recessions from Recession Recession Recession Peak Months from Peak

21 Why Such a Sluggish Recovery? Average contribution to real GDP growth over 9 quarters 5 Three prior recoveries Real GDP PCE Nonresidential investment Residential investment Government -0.6 Net Exports

22 Why Such a Sluggish Recovery? Average contribution to real GDP growth over 9 quarters Three prior recoveries This recovery (2009:Q3-2011:Q3) 2011 Q3) Real GDP PCE Nonresidential investment Residential investment Government -0.6 Net Exports

23 Why Such a Sluggish Recovery? Average contribution to real GDP growth over 9 quarters Three prior recoveries This recovery (2009:Q3-2011:Q3) 2011 Q3) Real GDP PCE Nonresidential investment Residential investment Government -0.6 Net Exports

24 Why Such a Sluggish Recovery? Average contribution to real GDP growth over 9 quarters Three prior recoveries This recovery (2009:Q3-2011:Q3) 2011 Q3) Real GDP PCE Nonresidential investment 0.5 Residential investment Government Net Exports

25 As a Nation: We Overspent Log scale, bil. 2005$ Real gross domestic purchases Real GDP Potential real GDP, CBO estimate '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

26 Spending Was Driven By Homebuilding, Consumption, and Percent of real GDP 107 Percent of real GDP Real gross domestic purchases Real PCE and residential investment '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 70

27 Household Debt! Household Debt-to-Income Ratio

28 Long Run View of Household Debt Household Debt-to-Income Ratio

29 The Federal Budget Crisis 26% Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures as a Percentage of GDP 24% Expenditures 22% 20% 18% 16% Receipts 14% '52 '56 '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12

30 Where Have We Been? 2008 (Great) Recession was the deepest and longest in 60+ years Preceded by overconsumption, overbuilding, and excessive debt Recovery has finally turned to Expansion But U.S. Job growth is too slow And the Debt overhang is large

31 Winston s Wisdom #2 Winston Churchill The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.

32 The US Economic Roller Coaster Where have we been? What s different about the most recent recession and recovery? How does our region compare? What s different regionally vs. nationally? Where are we going? What are the risks to the recovery?

33 No Boom or Bust in TX Housing 260 Index, 1Q 2000=100, NSA US TX

34 Big Housing Price Swings Elsewhere 260 Index, 1Q 2000=100, NSA US CA TX FL 100 NV

35 Underwater Mortgages Remain Elevated in Many States Percent of mortgages g with balance > home value Percent Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Nevada Arizona Florida California Texas U.S. Source: Core Logic

36 Personal Balance Sheets Adjusting Personal Debt/Income US TX

37 Big Adjustments Elsewhere Personal Debt/Income CA NV US FL TX

38 Regional Bank Profitability Stronger ROA (%) U.S. 11th District

39 Regional Banks Performing Better 12 Noncurrent Loan Rate (%) U.S. 11th District

40 Where Are the Problems? Noncurrent Loan Rate (%) Other Other Consumer Credit Card Commercial & Industrial Commercial RE Residential RE U.S. Banks 11 th District Banks

41 Time to Rename the Texas Ratio* Percent of Banks with Texas Ratio > 100% U.S. 11th District i t *The Texas Ratio is defined as noncurrent loans plus other real estate owned as a percentage of tangible equity capital plus loan loss reserves.

42 The Almost-Anywhere-But-Texas Ratio Percent of Banks with Texas Ratio > 100%, 3/31/2012 White: 0-5% Lightest Blue: 5-10% Blue: 10-15% Darkest Blue: >15%

43

44 The Texas Ratio by District Percent of Banks with Texas Ratio > 100%, 3/31/ Nationwide =

45 Texas Cattle Population Very Low Percent Thousands Cattle in Texas 15 Percent in Texas

46 Texas Exports: #1 in Nation 20% Percent of US 18% TX Total Exports #1 16% 14% 12% 10% CA #2 8% 6% 4% NY #3 2% 0%

47 Rig Count Moves with Oil Prices 160 $US, WTI Crude Texas Rigs Rig Count Oil Price '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 200

48 Texas Employment Growth 5 TX and US Employment Growth, Year over Year, 2012 YTD 4 Percent TX (2.67%) US (1.72%) YTD

49 Unemployment Rate, Percent The Unemployment Twist Most Recent: US (8.2%) TX (6.9%)

50 More Jobs Created Regionally Job Growth Index, 100 = January 1990 Dallas Kansas City Minneapolis Atlanta San Francisco Richmond US U.S. St. Louis Philadelphia Chicago Cleveland Boston New York

51 Job Growth Around the Globe Job Growth Index, 100 = January 1990 (except Euro Area, where 100 = July 1990) Texas Australia 130 Canada U.S. Euro Area France Germany U.K. 100 Japan 90 A t li

52 Jobs in The Great Recession: Dallas District Slower Going In, Quicker Coming Out 103 Job Growth Index, 100 = December 2007 Dallas U.S. New York Minneapolis Kansas City Richmond Philadelphia Boston Cleveland St. Louis Chicago Atlanta San Francisco

53 How Does Our Region Compare? Texas is the place to be! No boom or bust in housing Personal balance sheets stronger Banks healthier Jobs have completely recovered and growing faster than the nation More new businesses created and more corporate relocations

54 Winston s Wisdom #3 Winston Churchill The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.

55 The US Economic Roller Coaster Where have we been? What s different about the most recent recession and recovery? How does our region compare? What s different regionally vs. nationally? Where are we going? What are the risks to the recovery?

56 Where s Inflation Headed? Percent, yr/yr 6.0 Headline CPI Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

57 Is Core Inflation Rising? Percent, yr/yr Trimmed Mean PCE Core CPI Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Core PCE

58 Leading Index Signals Slower Growth Annualized % change

59 Prettiest Horse in the Glue Factory? year Government Bond Yields, as June 11, US Germany UK France Spain Italy Portugal Greece

60 European Sovereign Debt Concerns 45 Spread over 10-year 40 German bond Greece Portugal Spain Italy France U.K.

61 Where Are We Going? U.S economic growth likely l tepid Inflation is currently under control Significant headwinds (risks): European debt crisis and recession Extended joblessness Uneven housing recovery Oil price shock U.S. national debt and government spending Monetary policy has largely done its job

62 Winston s Wisdom #4 Winston Churchill You can always count on Americans to do the right thing---after they ve tried everything else.

63 Thank You! ( Rosenblum, Harvey, 2012 Economic Outlook, Dallas, TX (January 2012) Koenig, Evan, 2012 Economic Outlook, Dallas, TX (January 2012) Financial Industry Studies, Quarterly Banking Update, Dallas Fed (February 2012) Saving, Jason, Regional Update, Dallas Fed (March 2012)

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