Zions Bank Economic Overview Meridian Chamber of Commerce. May 2, 2017

Transcription

1 Zions Bank Economic Overview Meridian Chamber of Commerce May 2, 2017

2 National Economic Conditions

3 Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal

4 Current Level of Consumer Confidence Indicates Economic Prosperity Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Apr CCI = Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Source: The Conference Board

5 Expectations of Future Inflation on the Rise

6 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Source: Trading Economics

7 Irrational Exuberance?

8 Divergence of Soft vs Hard Data

9 Why?

10 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

11 Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

12 Index Slower Recovery than Past Recessions Periods from Value Scaled to Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

13 Slower Recovery than Past Recessions

14 Mixed March Job Indicators Indicator Expectation Actual Total Nonfarm Payrolls 175,000 98,000 Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.5% Private Payrolls 200,000 89,000 Monthly Average Hourly Wage Growth Yearly Average Hourly Wage Growth 0.3% 0.2% 2.8% 2.7% Labor Force Participation 62.9% 63.0% Sources: Wall street Journal and Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 98,000 Jobs Added in March Million Jobs Lost Payroll Change 000 s Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 98,000 Jobs Added in March Payroll Change 000 s January-16 February-16 March-16 April-16 May-16 June-16 July-16 August-16 September-16 October-16 November-16 December-16 January-17 February-17 March-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

17 National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Mar 2016 to Mar 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -1.2% Total: 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 2.6% 2.2% 3.2% 2.3% 1.7% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

18 National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Mar 2016 to Mar 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

19 Unemployment Rate Indicates Full Employment % = Full Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20 Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Down from Last Month U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21 % Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years Mar % Apr % Mar % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

22 % 68.0 Labor Force Participation Increasing Slightly Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

23 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate Male vs Female 40% 30% Men Women Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

24 Participation Among Women Aged Has Surged

25 4.0% 3.5% Yearly Wage Growth Down Slightly in March Mar % 3.0% 2.5% Average = 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained dollars

26 Producer Price Index Rising Slightly in March Percent Year-to-Year Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; not seasonally adjusted

27 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Inflation Above Fed Target But Below Expectations in March U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate Sept 2011 Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sept 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sept 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sept 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 June 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

28 Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change Percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

29 Consumers Drive Growth in GDP 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% Government Inventories Net Exports Fixed Investment Personal Consumption Real GDP Growth Q GDP 0.7%

30 = 100 The U.S. Dollar is Strong Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad Source: Federal Reserve

31 Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $ $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 PARITY 1.06 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

32 U.S. Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $ China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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34 $1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following BrexitVote Brexit Vote $ Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

35 U.S. Total Rig Count Recovering from Low as Oil Prices Rise $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $ Oil Prices 2015 Source: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs 2016 Active Oil Rigs ,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

36 Federal Funds Target Rate Sees 3 nd Increase in Over a Decade Federal Funds Target Rate = Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

37 March 2017 Fed Rate Increase Projections 4% 3% 3.0% 3.0% 2% 1.4% 2.1% 1% 0% Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

38 Idaho Economic Conditions Source: U.S Census Bureau

39 CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% Idaho Population 3 rd Fastest Growing in U.S. UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% HI 0.2% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Population Loss WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

40 Total Population 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , ,000 Idaho Population and Components of Change 1,683,140 18,869 10,296 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Components of Population Change 400, Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population -20,000 Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

41 Idaho Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 State Average = 1.8% Increase of 3.0% or Greater Increase of 1.8% to 2.9% Increase of 1.0% to 1.7% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% Population Loss Boundary 3.1% Bonner 1.8% Kootenai 2.6% Benewah 0.6% Latah 1.2% Nez Perce Lewis 0.6% 1.6% Adams 1.6% Washington 2.1% Payette Gem 0.8% 1.6% Canyon 2.2% Ada 2.4% Owyhee 0.7% Shoshone 0.0% Clearwater 0.2% Boise 1.6% Idaho -0.6% Valley 4.1% Elmore 0.9% Camas 0.7% Gooding -0.1% Custer 0.2% Jerome 1.2% Twin Falls 1.7% Lemhi -0.4% Blaine 1.1% Lincoln -0.7% Cassia 0.0% Butte 0.0% Minidoka 1.1% Power 0.4% Clark -1.4% Jefferson 2.5% Bingham 0.5% Oneida 1.3% Bannock 0.6% Franklin 2.9% Fremont 1.0% MadisonTeton 2.5% 3.7% Bonneville 2.0% Caribou 1.8% Bear Lake 0.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

42 CA 2.1% OR 2.2% WA 2.9% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Idaho Employment Growth 6th in the Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: March 2016 to March 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.5% NV 3.0% AK -2.1% ID 2.7% UT 3.2% AZ 2.0% MT 2.1% WY -2.1% HI 0.7% CO 1.9% NM 0.9% ND -0.3% SD 1.6% NE 0.9% KS 0.3% TX 2.1% OK -0.1% MN 1.5% IA 0.5% MO 1.4% AR 1.1% WI 0.9% LA -0.1% IL 0.4% MS 0.0% MI 1.9% IN 1.5% TN 2.2% AL 1.4% OH 0.7% KY 1.5% GA 3.0% WV -0.8% VT 0.9% PA 1.0% NC 1.6% SC 1.8% VA 1.2% FL 3.0% NY 1.2% 2.0% or more 1.6% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss ME 0.9% DC 0.8% CT 0.1% DE 0.8% MD 1.6% MA 1.4% RI 0.8% NJ 1.2%

43 Idaho Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees Loss of 59,000 jobs from Gain of 110,100 jobs since low in Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

44 Idaho Employment Gains and Losses by Industry Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: March 2016 March 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -3.0% Total: 2.6% 5.2% 1.9% 1.5% 4.5% 4.5% 2.7% 3.7% 1.7% 2.5% 2.6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% Source: Idaho Department of Labor

45 Idaho Employment Gains and Losses by Industry Total Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: March 2016 March 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government ,000 1,200 2,000 1,500 2,300 3,700 1,200 Total: 18,000 3,200-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Source: Idaho Department of Labor

46 Idaho Employment Change Rates By County March 2016 to March 2017 State Rate = 2.7% Boundary -1.1% Bonner 4.9% Kootenai 2.3% Benewah -1.2% Latah 3.9% Nez Perce 2.8% Lewis -0.55% Shoshone 1.7% Clearwater -2.3% Idaho -0.4% 4.0% or more 2.7% to 3.9% 1.0% to 2.6% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Adams 4.2% Washington Valley 0.5% Elmore -1.6% Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Employment 0.45% Custer Clark 0.2% -2.4% Payette 1.6% Gem 2.3% Canyon 2.7% Ada 2.8% Owyhee 0.7% Boise 2.8% Camas 1.6% Gooding 1.4% Twin Falls 2.1% Lemhi 2.0% Blaine 1.0% Lincoln 0.8% Jerome 2.8% Minidoka 1.1% Cassia 1.1% Butte 2.33% Power 0.2% Jefferson 2.3% Bingham 4.1% Oneida 2.3% Bannock -2.0% Fremont 4.7% MadisonTeton 5.4% 0.9% Bonneville 2.5% Caribou 0.6% Bear Lake Franklin -1.9% 1.3%

47 OR 4.0% 3.8% CA 5.0% 4.9% WA 4.9% 4.7% NV 4.9% 4.8% AK 6.4% ID 3.6% 3.5% UT 3.1% AZ 5.1% 5.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics ID Unemployment Rates 12 th Lowest in the Nation MT 3.8% HI 2.8% WY 4.7% 4.5% CO 2.9% 2.6% NM 6.7% 6.8% March 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.5% TX 4.9% 5.0% LA 5.7% 5.8% FL 5.0% 4.8% NH 2.7% 2.8% VT ND 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% MN 4.0% 3.8% NY WI SD 4.4% 4.3% 3.7% 3.4% 2.8% MI 5.3% 5.1% PA IA 5.0% 4.8% NE 3.2% 3.1% OH 3.2% 3.1% IL IN 5.1% 5.4% 4.9% 4.1% 3.9% WV VA 5.2% KS MO 4.9% KY 3.9% 3.8% 4.0% 3.8% 4.1% 3.9% 4.9% 5.0% NC 4.9% 5.1% TN 5.3% 5.1% OK AR SC 4.6% 4.3% 3.7% 3.6% 4.4% MS AL GA 5.2% 5.0% 6.2% 5.8% 5.3% 5.1% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 4.7% (at or below U.S. rate) 4.8% to 5.4% 5.5% to 5.9% 6.0% or more ME MA 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% RI 4.3% 4.5% CT 4.7% 4.8% NJ 4.4% 4.2% DE 4.5% DC MD 5.7% 5.8% 4.2% 4.3%

48 Idaho Unemployment Rates By County March 2017 State Rate = 3.5% Boundary 5.5% Bonner 5.0% Kootenai 4.3% Benewah 6.9% Latah 3.2% Nez Lewis Perce7.0% 3.1% % Shoshone 7.0% Clearwater 9.0% Idaho 5.5% 3.0% or lower Adams 7.1% Valley 5.1% Lemhi 6.0% 3.1% to 3.6% 3.7% to 5.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 7.0% or greater Washington 5.6% Custer Clark 4.5% 2.0% PayetteGem 6.0% 4.2% Canyon 3.9 Ada 3.0% Owyhee 4.2% Boise 5.4% Elmore 4.1% Camas 3.1% Gooding 2.8% Twin Falls 3.2% Blaine 2.8% Lincoln 4.2% Jerome 3.1% Cassia 2.7% Butte 3.5% Minidoka 2.9% Power 3.6% Jefferson 2.7% Bingham 3.4% Bannock 3.3% Oneida 3.0% Fremont 2,8% Madison Teton 2.1% 3.0% Bonneville 2.9% Caribou 3.7% Bear Lake Franklin 3.4% 2.7% Source: Idaho Department of Labor

49 CA 4.5% WA 4.8% OR 4.5% NV 5.9% UT 5.6% AZ 4.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis ID Personal Income Growth Same as National Average AK -1.0% ID 3.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : U.S. = 3.6%; ID = 3.6% MT 2.3% WY -1.7% HI 4.5% CO 3.9% NM 2.1% ND -1.5% SD 1.2% NE 2.8% KS 2.8% TX 2.9% OK 0.6% MN 3.0% IA 2.3% MO 3.5% AR 3.2% WI 3.1% LA 1.5% IL 3.1% MS 3.2% MI 3.6% IN 3.9% TN 3.9% AL 3.3% 4.0% or more OH 3.0% KY 2.6% GA 4.8% WV 1.0% VT 3.3% PA 2.9% NC 4.1% SC 4.4% VA 3.6% FL 4.9% NH 4.7% NY 2.9% 3.6% to 3.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease ME 3.7% DC 4.5% CT 3.0% DE 2.9% MD 3.7% MA 4.3% RI 3.1% NJ 3.2%

50 Construction

51 Idaho Median Home Sale Prices Reaching Approaching Pre-Recession Highs $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100, Idaho U.S. Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic

52 Idaho Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation 2008 Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process U.S. Idaho Source: Graphiq.com

53 25,000 Idaho Residential Construction Activity Slowly Climbing 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Single-Family Units Multifamily Total f Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau

54 Millions $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Idaho Value of New Residential Construction Increasing $ Single Family Units Multi Family Units Total f Source: U.S. Census Bureau

55 Meridian

56 Meridian At a Glance Population 90,739 Unemployment 3.0% Median Income - $54,746 Median Home Value - $213,100 Median Gross Rent - $987 Largest Employers Blue Cross Scentsy Forbes best places to retire 2016

57 Meridian is Experiencing Explosive Growth

58 Manufacturing and Construction Lead Jobs in Meridian

59 Meridian Unemployment Dropping

60 Housing Prices Increasing in Meridian

61

62 Idaho Economic Indicators Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Housing Starts f 2018f Sources: Idaho Division of Financial Management and Moody s Economy.com e = estimate f = forecast

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