Hotel Performance and Outlook

Transcription

1 Hotel Performance and Outlook HICAP 2016 Jesper Palmqvist 20 October 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

2 The end is near of the cycle 10% 5% 0% 2010 Feb RevPAR % Change, Total USA, USD

3 Not just yet but 2017 seems likely Waning pricing power Transaction volume falling RevPAR growth flattening out Cap rates at historic lows

4 vs $: -18% European uncertainty post-brexit vote

5 140 United Kingdom London YTD Aug '16 UK & London RevPAR Performance (Indexed to 2008) FY 2008 YTD Aug 16, Local Currency

6 The Middle East and it s new economic outlook Oil price - significant cuts in Government spend A new GDP Big supply pipeline still exist Currency challenges Brexit effect -9.6% RevPAR % Change, August 2016 YTD, USD Constant Currency

7 Asia Pacific driving occupancy with demand growth 4.7% 3.4% 1.3% -0.2% -1.5% Occupancy ADR RevPAR Supply Demand YTD Aug 16, Constant Current, USD 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

8 APAC regional hotel performance evolution Australia & Oceania Central & South Asia 80 Northeastern Asia Southeastern Asia YTD Aug '16 RevPAR Performance (Indexed to 2008) FY 2008 YTD Aug 16, Constant Currency, USD

9 2016 so far in some cases surprisingly strong 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% New Zealand Vietnam Malaysia India South Korea Thailand Japan Philippines Australia RevPAR growth YoY, Aug 2016, Local Currency 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

10 Supply, Currency and Source market shift 0% Mainland China Singapore Indonesia Hong Kong Taiwan Myanmar Maldives -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% RevPAR growth YoY, Aug 2016, Local Currency 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

11 Big cities growing more than regional mainland China CNY 650 CNY 500 Shanghai World Expo Beijing Shanghai China Mainland Regional CNY 350 CNY RevPAR Performance, Monthly R12, Jan 08 Aug 16, Local Currency

12 compression opportunity

13 APAC TOP 5 Compressed Markets Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore lead the way Occ: 80-90% New Zealand Thailand Singapore Hong Kong Japan Occupancy Level within 80% - 90%, YTD Aug 16, Total Room Nights

14 APAC TOP 5 Compressed Markets And Hong Kong strong at peak levels Occ: % South Korea 11 New Zealand 34 Singapore Japan Hong Kong 56 Occupancy Level within 90% - 100%, YTD Aug 16, Total Room Nights

15 10% 8% 6% 4% APAC TOP 5 Compressed Markets Who capitalizes the most getting additional ADR during peak days? Occ: 80-90% 2% 0% 10.3% 6.7% 6.6% 5.7% 4.7% Thailand Japan New Zealand Hong Kong Singapore ADR Variation (80% - 90%) vs Non Compression Nights below 80%, YTD Aug 16, Local Currency

16 25% 20% 15% 10% APAC TOP 5 Compressed Markets Who capitalizes the most getting additional ADR during peak days? Occ: % 5% 0% 24.7% 18.6% 11.6% 11.2% 5.9% Japan New Zealand Hong Kong SAR South Korea Singapore ADR Variation (90% - 100%) vs Non Compression Nights below 90%, YTD Aug 16, Local Currency

17 APAC Top 5 Pipeline Countries Vietnam Existing Supply Under Contract Pipeline Australia Malaysia India Indonesia As of Aug 16, excl China, based on total rooms number x

18 Outlook: SG and HK normality by % forecast 0% -5% -10% Hong Kong Singapore -15% Forecast RevPAR % growth, Local Currency, As per Aug 2016

19 Outlook: Sydney Beijing Tokyo beijing tokyo sydney Forecast RevPAR % growth, Local Currency, As per Aug 2016

20 summary 2017 the end of the cycle not just in the US Brexit uncertainty in EU - Oil price affecting ME China growth Big city vs Regional variation Thailand leads the way in optimization (SG doesn t) Growth stability likely just at slower pace 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

21 More info and presentations at: HotelNewsNow.com HICAP 2016 Jesper Palmqvist 20 October 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively STR ) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.