4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks. Riyadh, 22 January 2014

Transcription

1 4 th IEA-IEF-OPEC Symposium on Energy Outlooks Riyadh, 22 January 2014

2 Spare or stranded?* mb/d 7.0 Medium-Term Oil Market Balance Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World Supply Capacity Growth * Note: all medium-term slides in this presentation based on the IEA s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2013 released 14 May Slides are based on the IEA Oil Market Report of 21 January 2014.

3 Supply: US & Iraq in the lead mb/d Global Liquids Growth Crude US Light Tight Oil NGLs Non-Conv Biofuels Processing Gain OPEC* Non-OPEC Total * OPEC crude is capacity additions Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC

4 Non-OPEC: American decade mb/d Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China Africa PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total

5 OPEC capacity hurdles Growth forecast cut to 1.75 mb/d, to mb/d mb/d Change in OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity Iran Iraq UAE Saudi Arabia Other Total OPEC Forecast cut by 750 kb/d vs MTOMR 2012 Security risks, instability in Africa in wake of Arab Spring Unattractive investment terms Project delays (Algeria, Libya and Nigeria)

6 Demand lags supply Emerging markets lead growth 7.5% Global Oil Demand Growth 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5% -5.0% OECD Non-OECD Demand up 1.1 mb/d (1.2%) per annum Aggregate gain of 6.9 mb/d, to 96.7 mb/d Non-OECD demand forecast overtake OECD in 2014

7 Transport drives demand growth 100% Global Road Transport Sector Gasoline Demand, kb/d 80% 60% 40% % 0% Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others OECD Non-OECD Oil remains world s top transport fuel Dieselisation marks pause Transport gas inroads Gasoline growth slows to 1.2%/year on efficiency gains, fuel switching

8 Crude trade: the great migration Long-haul, Atlantic to Pacific trade grows in importance Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in for Key Trade Routes* (million barrels per day) * Excludes Intra-Regional Trade North America 0.3 (-0.8) 3.1 OECD Europe (-0.6) 3.9 (-0.3) (+0.3) (-0.9) China 1.2 (+0.4) (-1.4) (+0.8) (-1) (+0.1) 1.4 (+0.7) 6.2 (+0.8) Other Asia OECD Pacific (0.3) 0.5 (+0.4) 0.5 Red number in brackets denotes growth in period (+0)

9 Crude trade declines Down 0.9 mb/d to 32.4 mb/d Imports to non-oecd will surpass OECD in 2018 kb/d Regional Crude Exports: Yearly Change kb/d Regional Crude Imports: Yearly Change China Other Asia Africa Latin America Middle East FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe China Other Asia Africa Latin Am Other Eur OECD Pac OECD N Am OECD Eur North American imports drop as domestic supply grows Lower refining demand elsewhere in the OECD Increased imports to China and Other Asia Increased refining close to the wellhead

10 New world of refining mb/d 3.0 Crude Distillation Additions Regional Share of CDU Expansions China 45% Other Asia 14% OECD China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Other Non-OECD Net Additions Other 5% Middle East 22% Latin America 14% Global CDU capacity seen up 9.5 mb/d; refining capacity gets more sophisticated Non-OECD account for all additions, OECD contracts China leads expansions, but timing unclear

11 Where did the oil go? OECD Stocks plummet, Steepest monthly draw since 2011 Deficit to five-year average increased to 99.5 mb widest since 2003 mb 2,850 OECD Total Oil Stocks mb 100 OECD Industry Total Oil Stocks Relative to Five-Year Average 2, ,650 2,550 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Range Avg Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13 Nov 13 Asia Oceania Americas Europe OECD OECD oil stocks plunged 53.6 mb to mb at end-november Crude down 20.3 mb on OECD throughputs jump Refined products down 32.9 mb Other products down 27.3 mb on propane exports petrochemical demand Refined products deficit to 5-yr avg widened to mb Preliminary data show seasonal draw of 42.5 mb in December

12 US Crude Output Tops 8 mb/d in Nov. $/bbl Bakken vs WTI Copyright 2014 Argus Media Ltd 75 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Dec 13 WTI Bakken Nov US crude production highest since Nov US crude output growth seen at 780 kb/d, to average 8.26 mb/d for the year

13 2013 Non-OPEC Supply Up 1.35 mb/d y-o-y Dec Non-OPEC Supply Dn 335 kb/d on Biofuels mb/d Total Non-OPEC Supply, y-o-y chg Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12 1Q13 4Q13 3Q14 Other North America Total Offset by OPEC declines 2014 non-opec growth forecast at 1.7 mb/d, led by North America, with smaller growth in the FSU, South America, and Africa

14 Demand surprise kb/d 3,000 US50: LPG Demand 2,600 2,200 1,800 1,400 Jan Apr Range Jul Oct Jan 5-year avg US demand revised upwards in 4Q13 October revised up 585 kb/d to 19.3 mb/d Petrochemical/agricultural demand for LPG +2.1% Growth in 2013, to 18.9 mb/d, 180 kb/d above month earlier forecast