Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation

Transcription

1 Macro-economic risk and the outlook for aviation 25 th January 2018, Dublin Brian Pearce, Chief Economist, IATA

2 Macro matters 24% 20% Global GDP and RPK growth 12% 10% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% Global RPK growth Global GDP growth % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, IMF and our own forecasts

3 Peak-to-peak cycles lasted 8-11 years; but are downturns predictable? Billions of passenger kilometers flown Global passenger kilometers flown (RPKs) 9, years 8,000 7,000 6,000 8 years 5,000 4, years GFC 3, years dot.com/9-11 2,000 9 years Gulf war 1,000 Oil crisis 0 Inflation emerges Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics and our own forecast

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5 Macro-economic forecasts fail just when you need them Jan 07 Actual and forecast US GDP growth - Fair Model Actual Oct 07 Oct 09 Jul 08 Apr 09 % saar Oct Source: IATA Economics using data from the US Fair Model and Datastream

6 The same is true in forecasting air travel UK DfT forecasts of terminal passengers at UK airports Source: UK DfT, UK Aviation Forecasts, October 2017

7 What can be done? Turning points can t be forecast consistently Too many unknown unknowns We don t even try We focus on how the trend is evolving but listen to Adam Consider the known unknowns Stress-test with scenarios Build flexible, robust, business models Long-term trends may be predictable for some aviation variables IATA/TE 20-year country-pair passenger forecast service

8 What are the known unknowns? 1. Geopolitical risk is at a 25 year high Source: Tina Fordham, Chief Political Strategist, Citi

9 But political shocks of 2016 did not end the cycle Donald Trump Vows to Rip Up Trade Deals and Confront China The New York Times 28 June 2016

10 In fact confidence rose to new highs Index 50 = no change Index 60 Business and consumer confidence Global PMI manufacturing + services confidence Consumer confidence OECD + 6 large emerging economies Source: IATA Economics using data from Datastream, Markit

11 Liquidity helps; central banks have not yet started to unwind QE Billions US$/100,000 Yen 6000 Central bank assets Bank of Japan 5000 US Federal Reserve Bank Source: Datastream

12 Asset prices near all time highs bubbles about to burst? Index. Equals 1 in 2000Q Asset prices, indexed to 2000 Global house prices, inflation adjusted FTSE all World equity index US 7-year Treasury bond index Source: IATA Economics using data from Datastream, IMF

13 If so, high debt ratios could be the source of a downward shock Outstanding debt held by non-financial private sector, % GDP 175 Developing economies Developed economies Source: Datastream 50

14 But asset prices don t look exceptionally high compared to nominal GDP Index equal 1 in A broader P/E ratio: equity prices as a ratio of nominal GDP FTSE All-World equity index / World nominal GDP Source: IATA Economics using data from Datastream

15 Normal bond yields should be closer to trend growth in nominal GDP 16% 14% 12% 10% US 10-year Treasury bond yield and growth in US nominal GDP 8% Growth in US nominal GDP % 6% 4% 2% 0% 10 year US treasury bond yield -2% -4% Source: Datastream

16 The interest rate cycle is finally turning up 8 US interest rates % 4 3 US 10-year treasury bond yield 2 1 Federal funds rate Source: Datastream

17 So far there is no sign yet of an inflation problem 4.0% Core consumer price inflation 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% US Eurozone Japan 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Source: Datastream

18 But an inflation shock may come from the US, now out of spare capacity Billions of US$ constant prices 18,000 GDP and potential GDP in the US 17,500 US GDP 17,000 16,500 16,000 US potential GDP or supply capacity 15,500 15,000 14,500 14, Source: Datastream

19 Hard Brexit looking more likely damaging not disastrous The Treasury View: 3-4 years worth of GDP growth lost Source: UK Treasury The Long Term Impact of EU Membership and the Alternatives

20 Airlines have been using strong cash flows to reduce debt Debt adjusted for operating leases/ebitdar 8 Adjusted net debt/ebitdar Middle East Latin America Asia Pacific Industry average Europe North America Investment grade credits Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst

21 Focus remains on sweating assets as well as protecting margins EBIT margin, % revenue Capital productivity, revenue/invested capital, US$ 10 Components of return on capital EBIT margin Capital productivity Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, McKinsey, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts

22 % of invested capital The evolving trend for 2018 points to a 4 th year of good returns Return on capital invested in airlines and their cost of capital Return on capital (ROIC) Cost of capital (WACC) Source: IATA Economics using data from McKinsey, The Airlines Analyst, IATA forecasts

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