Revive European investments in the Mediterranean After the Awakening ISPI Conference

Transcription

1 Revive European investments in the Mediterranean After the Awakening ISPI Conference Emmanuel Noutary, General Delegate ANIMA Investment Network Milan, 3 June

2 Mediterranean Investment and Partnership Observatory (ANIMA MIPO) 11 countries monitored FDI recorded Business partnerships Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey Projects announced since qualification criteria: sector, type of company, target and origin country, amounts involved, jobs created, etc. 4 quarterly trend releases 1 annual report Used for country benchmarking, economic monitoring, business prospecting, media analysis and research papers Real time information (database) (geographic location) June 2014 ANIMA

3 The FDI recovery is still awaited

4 FDI announced in the MED region The region still suffers from the crisis second round effects Flux d'ide A certain resilience in 2011 and 2012 but a drop in number of projects (-30%) A switch of FDI project type in 2013 (larger) to be monitored Oiuiouoiuoiuouo Flux d'ide brut ANIMA (M ) Iouiooiuoiuouoiu Flux d'ide net ANIMA (M ) Nombre de projets iuiouoiuoiuoiuoiuouo Nombre de projets June 2014 ANIMA

5 FDI announced by country in M source ANIMA-MIPO Algérie Egypte Israël Jordanie Liban Libye Maroc Palestine Syrie Tunisie Turquie June 2014 ANIMA

6 FDI dominated by 5 sectors Investors favoured rent than industry projects Maghreb Machreck Autres MED Energie Banque, assurance Télécommunications, internet BTP, immobilier Ciment, verre, matériaux Tourisme, restauration Logiciels, informatique Agro-alimentaire Chimie, plasturgie, engrais Distribution, commerce Composants électroniques Automobile June 2014 ANIMA

7 A more cautious approach

8 A switch of behavious favoured by the crisis Partnerships and JV leave more room for value captation by MED countries 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 24% 35% 54% 44% 47% 47% 46% 47% 49% 52% 54% 76% 65% 46% 56% 53% 53% 54% 53% 51% 48% 46% Partial investment (brownfield, JV, partial acquisition, concession) Global investment (greenfield, subsidiary, full acquisition) Partnership FDI June 2014 ANIMA

9 A problem of spillovers and inclusiveness

10 The unbalanced territorial development of FDI June 2014 ANIMA

11 A low job efficiency of the sectors providing FDI Top 5 FDI sectors (50% of FDI ): Energy, Public Works, Cement, Bank, Tourism Job efficiency ratio by FDI sector in the MED-11 countries Sources: ANIMA MIPO June 2014 ANIMA

12 A necessary renewed view at economic development 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 WEF ranks Tunisia as the most competitive country in Africa and Maghreb The Global Competitiveness Report , released by the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) June 2014 ANIMA

13 EU investment is far below its potential

14 Europe n 2 for the second consecutive year Europe = 29% of FDI amounts in 2013 compared to 45% until 2011: lowest year of the last decade Gulf countries take the lead (37% of invested amounts) North America stable = 20% BRICs are volatile = 12,5% in 2013 Intra-MED FDI hardly exist USA-Canada Autres pays MED-11 Golfe Europe June 2014 ANIMA

15 EU investors: still numerous but small projects Europe = still 40% of announced FDI in 2012 in number of projects, but the European leadership is faltering Gulf projects are 182m in average (compared to 65m for all project in average, and EU and US projects are 46-48m in average) Europe Golfe USA-Canada Autres pays MED-11 June 2014 ANIMA

16 but EU FDI projects have more spillovers (1) European FDI projects create more jobs by million invested SME Major Co. Transnational Co. Fund Average Europe MED Gulf Other countries USA-Canada Average Number of jobs created by million Euros invested, by region of origin and by type of company (Source: ANIMA-MIPO ) June 2014 ANIMA

17 EU FDI projects have more spillovers (2)... and they have a greater contribution to economic diversification: European companies are the top investors in most of the strategic sectors for the MED countries 100% 90% 80% 70% 3% 0% 5% 13% 7% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 9% 7% 15% 5% 26% 7% 19% 9% 10% 5% 20% 13% 3% 3% 3% 5% 12% 21% 22% 9% MED-11 Gulf 60% 50% 15% 9% 56% 10% 28% 8% Other countries 40% 79% 30% 57% 59% 65% 57% 58% 58% USA-Canada 20% 33% 43% 10% Europe 0% Aeronautics Agribusiness Automotives Consulting Software Distribution Drugs Mechanics Transport & logistics June 2014 ANIMA

18 EU present the larger potential for partnership Enseignes, magasins, franchise Accord de développement Partenariat technologique Partenariat commercial Contrat de gestion Bureau de représentation June 2014 ANIMA

19 Actions undertaken to relaunch EU investment from SMEs

20 Recover trust between EU and the Mediterranean Mobilise political and opinion leaders in the EU The European Union and its member states have to show their commitment to partnering with the Mediterranean at the highest level Head of Chambers & Employers Federation Business networks Diaspora networks Make the EU more visible in the Mediterranean EU investors and businesses EU support policies Actions Intelligence/ information Roadshows Visits from EU leaders to policy makers in the Mediterranean Current initiatives led by ANIMA June 2014 ANIMA

21 Develop a more balanced partnership Involve players from the South with new mindset Clusters, innovation poles, incubators, accelerators Angels, private equity funds Assess the inclusive impact of business and investment Job creation Economic spillovers (sub contracting) Coherence with national/ regional development policies The problem of South South integration Reduce the interest of local markets Limits the negotiation capacities Current initiatives led by ANIMA June 2014 ANIMA

22 Thank you for your attention Emmanuel NOUTARY ANIMA INVESTMENT NETWORK 11b rue Saint Ferréol Marseille FR T. +33(0)