Cross Sector Property Update

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1 Ian Cross Sector Property Update Johnny Dudgeon, FRICS Savills Lincoln Tel:

2 UK Housing Market Residential Rural Commercial Strategic Land

3 East Midlands West Midlands East of England Scotland South West North West Wales South East Yorks & Humber North East London Annual House Price Growth 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: Savills Research using Land Registry

4 UK Mainstream House Price Growth Source: Nationwide (to Sept 2017), Savills +28% Last 5 years Next five years +14%

5 Mainstream house price forecasts 5 years % 17.0% 17.6% 18.1% 14.8% 15.9% 11.5% 14.8% 7.1% 14.2% 11.5%

6 730,000 Transactions 1,217,000 1,195,000 1,529,000 1,654, UK Housing Transactions 1,195, ,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , average average 12m to Jun-09 12m to Sep-14 Current Chart source: HMRC ,155, ,170,000 1,135, ,195, ,210,000

7 Who will be buying? Source: Savills, *2007 Previous ( ) Current (2017) Forecast (2022) First-time buyers 371, , ,000 Mortgaged home movers 750, , ,000 Mortgaged buy to let 183,000* 75,000 55,000 Cash buyers 386, , ,000

8 The Rural Land Market

9 per acre Acres Long term values and supply Source: Savills Research & Defra 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, , , , , , , , , ,000 50,000 - Source: Savills Rural Research & DEFRA Average UK Farmland ( per acre) Supply/Turnover (England)

10 Number of Acres East Midlands - Publicly Marketed* Farmland * Revised Series January Lowland farms/farmland over 50 acres with VP marketed in the National Press + Regional press & internet sites (since beginning 2013) 12, ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Derbyshire Leicestershire Lincolnshire Northamptonshire Nottinghamshire Rutland Source: Savills Research

11 Source: Savills Research Investment performance Source: Savills Research Net Income Return Capital Growth 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% All let property Agricultural let property Residential let property Commercial let property

12 per acre England - Source of income Source: Savills Research Agricultural Residential Commercial Leisure Woodland Sporting Minerals Other Source: Savills Research

13 Index: 1992 = 100 Farmland v other assets (capital growth) Source: Savills Research Prime Central London Prime GB Arable Residential Gold Wheat Commercial Gilts

14 Debt Sales Significant in Light of Low Base Rates 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Debt as Reason for Farmland Sale Base Rate Source: Savills Rural Research, Bank of England

15 UK Government View: Devolution and future farm policy I want to see the devolved administrations exercise more power in the future, just as long as it is consistent with making sure farmers in every part of the country have unimpeded access to the UK wide internal market. outside the EU the devolved administrations will have more powers than ever before to shape agricultural policies that suit their jurisdictions. 15

16 Key issues of Brexit for Agriculture Support Trade Regulation Labour Restructuring Innovation

17 Agricultural Productivity Index Productivity of UK Farming vs New Zealand Source: Food & Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% UK New Zealand 70m m 2016 Production: -5%

18 per acre GB farmland values by country 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 England Scotland Wales Year-on- Year 10 Yr CAGR Great Britain (2.3%) 7.0% England (2.2%) 7.3% Scotland (1.2%) 4.4% Wales (3.5%) 7.4% English Regions East (2.7%) 6.5% East Mids (6.1%) 6.6% North (4.2%) 6.5% West Mids (2.7%) 6.0% Source: Savills Rural Research South West (2.1%) 7.6% South East 3.1% 7.4%

19 Average Farmland Value ( /acl) GB Annual Farmland Supply (ac) GB Farmland Forecasts Source: Savills Research 8,000 7,500 GB Supply Average Value GB Farmland Straight Commerical Holdings Amenity / Lifestyle Holdings 200, , ,000 7,000 6,500 6,000 5, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 5,

20 Commercial

21 m m The markets outside London had their best ever year for investment activity Greater London Outside Greater London 35,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 Alt / Mixed Alt / Mixed 20,000 Leisure Industrial 20,000 Leisure Industrial 15,000 Ret Ware Shop Centre 15,000 Ret Ware Shop Centre 10,000 Unit Shop Office 10,000 Unit Shop Office 5,000 5,

22 Joules Lidl Aldi Hotel Chocolat Superdry Fat Face Ted Baker Grp Matalan Primark Jigsaw Poundland John Lewis Topps Tiles* Dunelm* Game UK Halfords* Morrisons Debenhams Tesco UK Asda Next Plc Sainsbury's M&S UK WHSmiths* Boux Ave* Carpetright* Maplin Moss Bros* Mothercare Total sales yr/yr Retail unfashionable but past its darkest moment Christmas 2017 was better than expected (again) What is defensive against internet shopping? There will be more stock on the market this year Stock selection is everything in retail In 2006 the vacancy rate for prime locations was 2.1% and for secondary 7.6% Now prime is 1.4% and secondary is 14.5% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Pick: Experience or Convenience, retail warehousing -10% -15%

23 Sq ft (millions) Logistics supported by structural change Take-up hit record levels in 2016, but was only average in 2017, Q strongest ever quarter Supply tight Rental growth at double normal levels, and yields are now lower than offices Urban logistics supported by last mile, densification, mixing of uses Impact on the larger logistics markets of Brexit, staff costs and AI? year rolling average take-up Pick: Develop big sheds or buy urban logistics especially where there is medium term potential for change of use

24 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul % London prime office yields are low in historic terms 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% City office West end office Source: Savills 24

25 Top rent ( per sq ft) And tight supply will drive further growth in prime rents in the major regional cities Birmingham Bristol Edinburgh Glasgow Leeds Manchester Source: Savills

26 Sq Ft # of lettings However, the growth of the serviced office operator has definitely affected take-up of units of less than 5,000 sq ft (8% down yoy, 29% down on 2011) 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Serviced office operator take-up # of sub 5,000 sq ft lettings ,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 26

27 Planning and Development

28 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Number of new homes per year Political urgency to accelerate to 300K homes per annum. Is there market capacity? Source: DCLG 350, , , ,000 New planning consents NPPF introduced Need 150, ,000 50,000 Net additional dwellings EPCs for new dwellings 0

29 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q nd hand transactions (rolling annual average) New build transactions (rolling annual average) Help to Buy is accelerating new build delivery Source: Savills using Land Registry 2nd hand New build 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0

30 But affordability limits market volumes in higher priced markets Lower quartile house price to lower quartile earnings ratio 0.0 to to 5.9 Income required to buy the average new home 27,000 Percentage of households with the required income 45% 5.9 to to ,000 47% 7.6 to to ,000 43% to to ,000 39% 11.4 to to 30.7 Source: Savills using ONS, HM Land Registry, DCLG and CACI 68,000 21%

31 Growing Build to Rent pipeline Source: HMRC, Savills / BPF 20% Of households in England privately rent The number of year olds in the private rented sector has increased from 11% to 29% in the last 10 years. 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Build to Rent Pipeline Complete Construction Planning 58,542 55,344 55,929 53,083 27,566 25,882 22,565 23,636 17,255 18,352 19,106 15,356 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

32 Summary Residential mainstream had a good run but more muted going forward Farmland had a phenomenal last 10 years. More commercial farmland having a price adjustment Commercial yield compression in West End offices and logistics Strategic land Government still not getting close to 300,000 houses being built per annum Always opportunities in a changing marketplace

33 Thank you Johnny Dudgeon, FRICS Savills (UK) Limited Olympic House Doddington Road Lincoln LN6 3SE Telephone

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