2016 Census: Release 2 Age, Sex, Dwelling types

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1 2016 Census: Release 2 Age, Sex, Dwelling types Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer May 11, 2017

2 Agenda A look at major age sex trends National Provincial/territorial Urban and rural areas A brief look at other topics Collective households Dwelling types Marketing implications A look ahead 2

3 Today s presenter Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer 3

4 housekeeping Listen only mode for attendees Questions at the end. Use the Webex Q&A Feature in your Interface Technical difficulties? Presentation deck will be available environicsanalytics.com/webcasts 4

5 Canada s population Census Population, Canada, , ,000 Total Population 35,151,725 Millennials Gen X Boomers Pre Boomers 400, , , ,000 0 Under 1 year Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Age years and over 5

6 Many more women at older ages Percent Female by Age, Canada, % 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 48.9% 66.4% 30% Under year Age All ages 50.9% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 6

7 More than half the population over age 40 Median Age of Population, Canada Years Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 7

8 More seniors than children Percent of Population, Canada % Age 0 14 Age Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 8

9 In 30 years, close to one in Four aged 65 and older Percent of Population, Canada % Age 0 14 Age Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census; Medium projections 9

10 An older population Percent of Population, Selected Age Groups, 2016 Actual and 10, 20, 30 Year Projections, Canada Age 0 14 Age % Projections Source: Statistics Canada, Medium projection 10

11 Canada still relatively young Percent of Population Aged 65 and Over, G7 Countries, % % 0 14 % % United States Canada United Kingdom France Italy Germany Japan Source: Statistics Canada, Analytical Report on Release of Age and Sex Data, 2016 Census 11

12 Highest growth at older ages; declines at some ages Percent Population Change , Canada % Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 12

13 High growth continues at older ages Projected Growth, , Canada % All ages Source: Statistics Canada, Medium projection 13

14 Working-age population continued to grow, but at reduced rate Percentage Growth of Working Age Population, Age 15 64, Canada % Growth in Labour Force % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 14

15 And working-age population continued to get older Population Age as Percent of Working Age Population, Age 15 64, Canada % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 15

16 Continued slow growth in population aged Projected Growth in Population, Aged 15 64, Canada % Projections Source: Statistics Canada, Population projections,

17 Determinants of Age Structure Pattern of past births: aging of Boomers Mortality rates International migration Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 17

18 Fertility rate has been relatively constant for 35 years Total Fertility Rate, Canada Rate Population Females aged M M M M 1.67 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 18

19 Number of births depends on fertility rates and number of women in childbearing ages Number of Births, Canada Births 000s 500 Pre Boomers Boomers Gen X Millennials Generation Z Baby Bust Depression Source: Statistics Canada, Vital Statistics 19

20 Life expectancy increasing Life Expectancy, Canada Life Expectancy at Birth (years) Life Expectancy at Age 65 (more years) Years Males Females Years Males Females Source: Statistics Canada, Vital Statistics 20

21 Provinces and territories

22 Atlantic provinces have oldest populations Average Age, Canada, 2016 Newfoundland and Labrador New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island British Columbia Québec Canada Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Yukon Alberta Northwest Territories Nunavut Years Source: Statistics Canada, Analytical Report on Release of Age and Sex Data, 2016 Census 22

23 More Seniors in All provinces except Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta Percent of Population, Canada, % 80% 60% 40% Age 65+ Age % 0% Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC YT NT NU 32.5 Age 0 14 Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 23

24 All provinces and territories had large increases in seniors populations Percentage Change in Age, Canada, Age 0 14 Age Age % YK NT NU AB BC NL PE NB Canada NS ON QC MB SK Source: Statistics Canada, Analytical Report on Release of Age and Sex Data, 2016 Census 24

25 Most provinces had declines at ages and Percent Population Change Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Age % Age % Canada NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC YK NT NU 25

26 Declines in population aged in some provinces Growth of Population, Aged 15 64, Nunavut Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba British Columbia Ontario Canada Yukon Québec 0.9 Northwest Territories 1.2 Prince Edward Island 2.0 Newfoundland and Labrador 3.2 Nova Scotia 3.8 New Brunswick % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 26

27 Urban and rural Areas

28 Younger population in the largest urban areas Percent of Population Aged 65 and Over, Largest CMAs 14.7 % Rest of CMAs 17.4 Medium Sized Urban 19.7 Rural/Small Town 20.3 Rural Territories Largest CMAs: Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, Ottawa Gatineau, Edmonton Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 28

29 29

30 A much younger First Nations population Reserve Population, Canada, 2016 Reserve Population 29.1 % Age 0 14 Age Age Age Age 65+ Total Population 16.6 % Age 0 14 Age Age Age Age 65+ Reserve Pop 28.5 years Median Age Total Pop 40.2 years Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 30

31 Wide variations in older population Percentage of Population Aged 65 and Over, CMAs, 2016 Trois Rivières QC Peterborough ON St. Catharines Niagara ON Kelowna BC Victoria BC Saguenay QC Belleville ON Thunder Bay ON Sherbrooke QC Kingston ON Highest % Ottawa Gatineau ON and QC St. John's NL Oshawa ON Toronto ON Kitchener Cambridge Waterloo ON Barrie ON Regina SK Saskatoon SK Edmonton AB Calgary AB Canada 16.9% Lowest % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 31

32 Rapid growth of population aged 65 and over in some areas Change in Population Aged 65 and Over, CMAs, Calgary AB Ottawa Gatineau ON/QC Oshawa ON Vancouver BC Halifax NS Moncton NB Edmonton AB Abbotsford Mission BC Victoria BC Sherbrooke QC Highest Lowest % St. Catharines Niagara ON Montréal QC Winnipeg MB Peterborough ON Regina SK Hamilton ON Greater Sudbury ON Thunder Bay ON Belleville ON % Canada Brantford ON % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 32

33 Much Older population in some smaller urban areas Medium Sized Urban Areas with 25% and Over Population 65+ Parksville BC Elliot Lake ON Wasaga Beach ON Cobourg ON Penticton BC Thetford Mines QC Tillsonburg ON Salmon Arm BC Courtenay BC Powell River BC Sorel Tracy QC Shawinigan QC Collingwood ON Hawkesbury ON/QC Matane QC Kawartha Lakes ON Port Hope ON Vernon BC % Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 33 Canada 16.9%

34 Municipalities with younger populations Top 10 Youngest Census Subdivisions, Municipalities 50,000 and over, Milton ON Airdrie AB Mirabel QC Grande Prairie AB Terrebonne QC Brampton ON Blainville QC Whitby ON Wood Buffalo AB Ajax ON Canada 16.6% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 34

35 Municipalities with older populations Top 10 Oldest Census Subdivisions, Municipalities 50,000 and over, Kawartha Lakes ON Saint Hyacinthe QC Cape Breton NS Trois Rivières QC Norfolk County ON Sault Ste. Marie ON Nanaimo BC Peterborough ON St. Catharines ON Sarnia ON Canada 16.9% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 35

36 City and suburban populations similar in proportion of seniors a result of high growth of seniors in suburbs Population Aged 65+, 2016 City Suburbs Growth of Population 65+ City Suburbs 31.1 % % Montreal GTA Vancouver Montreal GTA Vancouver GTA = Greater Toronto Area Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 36

37 Concentration of young adults downtown Percentage Distribution of Population, Toronto, 2016 Downtown Age 0 14 Age Age Age Age Age Age % Total City Age 0 14 Age Age Age Age Age Age % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 37

38 Highest downtown growth for and 65+ populations Growth of Population, City of Toronto (CSD), Downtown Total 31.6 % All ages Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 38

39 39

40 40

41 41

42 Collective Dwellings

43 Types of Collective Dwellings Health care and related facilities General and specialty hospitals Nursing homes, chronic care and long term care hospitals Residences for senior citizens Group homes or institutions for the physically handicapped and treatment centres Group homes or institutions for people with psychiatric disorders or developmental disabilities Correctional and penal institutions Shelters Total Collective Dwellings Population 685,480 Number 27,780 Group homes for children and youth Service collective dwellings Lodging and rooming houses Hotels, motels and other establishments with temporary accommodation services Other service collective dwellings Religious establishments Hutterite colonies Other 43

44 Older ages account for most of collective dwelling population Percent of Population in Collective Dwellings, Canada, % Total Age Groups and over Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 44

45 Many more women in health care facilities Seniors Population in Health Care and Related Facilities, Canada, 2016 Total Male Female Health care and related facilities 428, , ,740 Nursing homes 156,915 47, ,315 Residences for senior citizens 163,300 48, ,550 Facilities that are a mix of both a nursing home and a residence for senior citizens Residential care facilities such as group homes for persons with disabilities and addictions 82,360 24,190 58,175 12,955 6,125 6,830 Hospitals 13,050 5,170 7,875 45

46 Over one third of women over the age of 85 live in a health-related institution Percent of Population in Health Care and Related Facilities, Canada, 2016 Male Female % and over Age Groups Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 46

47 Pattern of aging differs Increase in Population ( 000), Canada Age 65+ 1,283 1,123 1, Count Projections Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Population Age M Age 75+ Count Projections 2016 Population Age M Age 85+ Count Projections 2016 Population Age M

48 Households and Private Dwellings

49 Average household size drops slightly Average Household Size, Canada Number of Persons Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 49

50 Over 60% of the population live in one- or two-person households Households by Size, 2016, Canada person 2 persons 3 persons 4 persons 5+ 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Statistics Canada, Analytical Report on Release of Age and Sex Data, 2016 Census 50

51 Over half of all dwellings are single-detached... Number of Dwellings, ,072, 080 Population in Private Dwellings 34,460, 060 Singledetached house 54% Apartment, building that has five or more storeys 10% Singledetached house 60% Apartment, building that has five or more storeys 7% Other 37% Other 33% Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 51

52 ... But much higher growth for high-rise apartments Growth in Number of Dwellings by Type, Canada % Total Single detached Apartment 5 or more storeys Other 751, , , ,900 Growth Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 52

53 Seniors downsizing to apartments Percent of Population Living in Apartments 5 or More Storeys, Canada, % 16% 14% 16.2 % of Population 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Total Age Groups and over Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 53

54 fewer seniors remain in single-detached dwellings Dwelling Type, Canada, % Single detached house Apartment five or more storeys Other 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total and over Single detached house Other Apartment, five or more storeys Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census 54

55 Some marketing implications /08/30/social media and older adults/ 55

56 The large and rapidly growing number of seniors Potential for businesses and industries offering products and services designed for seniors, especially the health care, travel and financial services industries Interest among seniors to remain living in their local communities rather than move to much more expensive health care facilities, and this trend likely will result in a greater need for home care services An increasing need for housing for seniors oriented rental apartments, residences for seniors With decreased mobility and many seniors living alone, municipalities will also face a need for services, particularly in suburban areas Businesses may need to consider packaging options and home delivery of products 56

57 The large Millennial group in transition Implications for housing Family formation Drop in twentysomething population has implications for part time workforce Not all Millennials are the same 57

58 What s ahead

59 Future Census Releases August 2, 2017 Families, households and marital status Language September 13, 2017 Income October 25, 2017 Immigration and ethnocultural diversity Housing Aboriginal peoples November 29, 2017 Education Labour Journey to work Language of work Mobility and migration 59

60 What s Ahead for Environics Analytics DemoStats 2017 DemoStats released Based on 2011 Census geography Based on 2011 Census 2018 DemoStats released at end of March Shift to 2016 Census geography Still based on 2011 Census, but will incorporate some trends from DemoStats released at end of March Built with 2016 Census based estimates adjusted for 2016 coverage Update to PRIZM5 based on 2016 Census and other data 60

61 2016 Census: Age, Sex, Dwelling types Questions Dr. Doug Norris Senior Vice President and Chief Demographer

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