The Great Economic Reset

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1 The Great Economic Reset CMTA Annual Conference Squaw Creek Lake Tahoe April 13, 2016 Presented by Douglas C. Robinson, RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm Advisory services offered through RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC Securities offered through Foothill Securities, Inc., a Registered Broker/Dealer, Member FINRA/SIPC RCM Robinson Capital Management, and Foothill Securities are unaffiliated.

2 Immigration Adjusted Birth Index 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500, Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Center for Health Statistics, Dent Research

3 Key Consumer Expenditures/Investments Spending Apartments Shopping Centers Offices Colleges Starter Homes 33 Trade-Up Homes Peak in Spending Consumer Life Cycle Age Autos Vacation Homes Resorts 52 Retirement Homes Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Annual Surveys and Research Memorandum-H.S. Dent RV s 60 65

4 Men's Apparel Expenditures Age Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure, H.S. Dent

5 Spending on Drugs Expenditures Age Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure, H.S. Dent

6 Funeral, burial or cremation Expenditures Age of Head of Household Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure, H.S. Dent

7 Healthcare Spending Wave Births on a 80-Year Lag Immigration-Adjusted Births Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure, H.S. Dent

8 Total U.S. Debt Outstanding Q Trillions Federal Govt Trust Funds $60 Federal Govt State and Local Govt $50 Financial Sector Foreign $40 Corporate Consumer Credit $30 Home Mortgage $20 $10 $ Data Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Report, Treasury Direct, 2016 Government $22.5Trn Financial $15.3Trn Foreign $3.0Trn Corporate $12.6Trn Consumer $13.0Trn Total: $66.4 Trn

9 Total U.S. Debt Growth vs. GDP Total Debt GDP $70 Debt Growth= 833% $60 Trillions $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 Debt Growth=2.66x GDP Growth GDP Growth= 313% $ Current Debt is 3.54x GDP Data Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Treasury Direct, 2016

10 China Debt Growth vs. GDP $35 GDP China Total Debt Debt Growth= 2,635% $30 Trillions $25 $20 $15 Debt Growth=3.43x GDP Growth Current Debt is 2.64x GDP GDP Growth= 768% $10 $5 $ Data Source: Bloomberg, 2016

11 China Export - Import Data Source: Bloomberg, 2016

12 Central Banks Balance Sheet Explosion $14 Federal Reserve European Central Bank Bank of England Bank of Japan People's Bank of China (less forex) Swiss National Bank $12.9T +$8.2T $12 $10 Trillions $8 $6 $4.7T $4 $2 $ Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research, 2016

13 Italy, Bad Loan Ratio 17 Bad Loan Ratio 15 Percent Data Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/14

14 Deutsche Bank Stock Crashes Down 87% from 2008, and 60% from 2015 high 120 Price % Data Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/8/16

15 Total Derivatives Market Over-the-Counter Notional Value Currently 7x Global GDP Trillions Data Source: Bank for International Settles, Bloomberg, 2016

16 U.S. Total Debt as Percent of GDP by Sector, % During the last great economic reset, non-government debt fell dramatically to 50% of GDP. Today all debt exceeds 360% of GDP. GSE Financial 150% 50% Corporate Consumer Total Government Data Source: Deleveraging? What Deleveraging? Geneva Reports on the World Economy 16, Luigi Buttiglione, Philip R. Lane, Lucrezia Reichlin and Vincent Reinhart, St. Louis Fed, 2014

17 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Crude Oil 1983-Present Data Source: Bloomberg, as of 4/8/16 WTI, $/Barrel

18 Year Commodity Cycle CRB Index (PPI before 1947) Peak Source: Bloomberg, Future assumptions are the opinions of Dent Research and are not guaranteed.

19 The Velocity of Money GDP divided by M2 Money Supply Source: Bloomberg, 2016

20 Fed s Inflation Gauge US Personal Consumption Expenditures Core 2004-Present Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Inflation Fed Inflation Target Percent Source: Bloomberg, 2016

21 Employment Growth Since Foreign Born Native Born Job Growth Indexed to Jan Data Source: BLS, Dent Research, 2016

22 Who s Working? Source: Advisor Perspectives Doug Short, 2016

23 Food Service vs. Manufacturing Jobs Source: BLS, Zero Hedge, 2016

24 Unemployment Insurance Claims Lowest since 1973 Source: Advisor Perspectives Doug Short, 2016

25 US Household Debt Service Ratio Lowest in 35 years Percent Source: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, 2016

26 Sacramento County Median Home Price % Source: California Association of Realtors, Bloomberg, 2016

27 5 Year Treasury Channel 1980-Present Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Yield Source: Bloomberg, 2016

28 5 Year Treasury 2011-Present Source: Bloomberg, 4/08/16

29 USA # 1 Global 5 Year Treasury Rates Compared Percent Source: Bloomberg, March 08, 2016

30 The Buffett Indicator Market Value of Equities Outstanding to GDP close to 2 standard deviations from mean Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Advisor Perspectives Doug Short, 2016

31 Record NYSE Margin Debt Source: NYSE, Bloomberg, Advisor Perspectives Doug Short, 2016

32 Sunspot Cycles Recession Number of Sunspots Sunspot Number Source: European Space Agency, NASA, Dent Research, 2016

33 Sunspot Cycles Source: European Space Agency, NASA, Dent Research, 2016

34 Stock Market Bubble? Compare November 1994-March 2000 to March 2009-present Source: Bloomberg, Dent Research, 2016

35 Who s Buying? S&P 500 companies have bought back $2.1 trillion of their own stock since 2010 Source: Bloomberg, Dent Research, 2016

36 Are Stocks Set to Fall 70% by 2017? Dow Megaphone Pattern 20,000 E 16,000 C 12,000 8,000 A B D 4, Dow Jones Index 5,500-6,000 Source: Bloomberg, 2016, Future return assumptions are the opinions of Dent Research and are not guaranteed.

37 The Spending Wave Births Lagged for Peak Spending 5,000,000 19,000 16,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 Dow Adjusted for Inflation 13,000 10,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 Immigrationadjusted Births Lagged for Peak Spending 7,000 4,000 2,500,000 1, Source: Dent Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Bloomberg, 2016

38 Questions? These views represent the opinions of RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict performance of any investment. These views are subject to change based on subsequent developments. Advisory services offered through RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC, SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through Foothill Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Douglas C. Robinson, Registered Representative. Available at iuniverse, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Borders.com

39 Douglas C. Robinson Independent Registered Investment Advisor Doug Robinson is the principal of RCM Robinson Capital Management, an SEC registered investment advisory and management firm specializing in institutional fixed income management and OPEB trust asset allocation strategies. Doug is a frequent guest speaker and long-time member of the California Municipal Treasurers Association. With over thirty years in the investment industry, he is the editor of robinsoncapital.com, an educational web site providing investors with information on institutional fixed income, GASB 45 mitigation strategies and portfolio management. Doug is also a Branch Manager and Registered Principal with Foothill Securities. Doug received his Bachelors of Science degree in Economics from University of Missouri-Columbia and is co-author of Boom or Bust - Understanding and Profiting from a Changing Consumer Economy. Doug also serves as board member to the California State Treasurer's Office, Local Investment Advisor Board (LIAB) which provides oversight to the Local Agency Investment Fund (LAIF), managing $21.3 billion as of February RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC Foothill Securities, Inc. 27 Reed Boulevard Mill Valley, CA Phone: Fax: The information contained herein is based on sources and data believed reliable, but is not guaranteed. Advisory services offered through RCM Robinson Capital Management LLC, SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through Foothill Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Douglas C. Robinson, Registered Representative.

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