POWERING THE FUTURE OF THE BUS SECTOR

Transcription

1 POWERING THE FUTURE OF THE BUS SECTOR Umberto Guida Director Research & Innovation - Brussels, 15 September 2016

2 32 BILLION BUS JOURNEYS / YEAR IN EUROPE 7,8 billion journeys 9,2 billion journeys 56,8 billion journeys 31,7 billion journeys 2 8,1 billion journeys Source: Statistics Brief, June 2014, Bus+Trolley Tram Metro Suburban Rail Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

3 POWERING THE FUTURE OF BUS: NOT JUST TECHNOLOGY Quality of the service to the passengers Accessible, Comfortable, Cleaner Vehicles Improved commercial speed PT Dedicated Infrastructure Traffic & operations management Efficient Combined mobility Smart use of energy in vehicles Modal shift 3 Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

4 CLEAN URBAN FLEETS: WHAT IS THE PRIORITY? Today Only>Euro III Only Euro VI Today Only>Euro III Only Euro VI Urban Bus contribution to urban pollution calculated per passenger per km 50,3% 4 50,3% 24,5% 24,5% 34,2% Estimated emissions reduction by renewing the urban bus fleet 24,6% 11,6% 13,2% NMHC NOx PM Source: 34,2% NMHC NOx PM Urban Buses contribute for the 3% to the road transport city emission In Europe: 45% - Euro III or older Bus contribution to urban 24,6% pollution is really small 11,6% Renewal 13,2% of old-bus fleets towards low emission plus Modal Shift has a multiplier effect Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

5 A NEW REVOLUTION? Public Transport always been in the front-line of disruptive changes in propulsion Electrification already produced a revolution in public transport From horse-powered to electric trams 5 was already following this : The high cost of horses maintenance vs. electricity traction was one of the key topics discussed at the s Berlin Congress in Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

6 WHAT TRENDS FOR ALTERNATIVE FUELS? Current European fleet Future European fleet Bus fleet breakdown per fuel or energy used Source: ,5% Respondents distribution according to future plans to change propulsion system ratio

7 CITIES COMMITMENTS ON EMISSIONS REDUCTION Defined strategy & timescale The example of Oslo 7 Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

8 EBUSES DEMAND ANALYSIS Data-set 19 PTO/PTA strategies 25 cities / regions ,000 ebuses / 40,000 (5%) Low-slope grow Mostly pilots, tests, demo High number of barriers still in place Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

9 NEW CHALLENGES NEW BARRIERS Costs of Innovation New vehicles, infrastructure Depreciation New operations Service designed on technology Flexibility vs range Procurement and contracts Risk sharing of innovation Interoperability Between different solutions and implementations Involvement of ALL actors (some new!) Energy providers, city authorities 9 Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

10 EBUSES DEMAND ANALYSIS Data-set 12 PTO/PTA strategies (19) 20 cities / regions / 14,000 buses (43%) in cities with ebuses strategy 2025 High-slope grow Assuming barriers are removed Limited number of cities Mostly Central / Northern Europe Lack of funding for fleet renewal Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

11 EUROPEAN MARKET ANALYSIS: QUALITATIVE CONSIDERATIONS ON THE OFFER SIDE Bus Integrators + VOLVO Flexible offer Series production Evolution of the product Other high share European Bus Manufacturers Internal test Pilots Series Production Newcomers Offer with high performance higher risks Natural selection Evolution of product Industries from other mass transit domain (and electric solution providers) Products from background knowledge Mature / evolved ebuses More standard Solutions Bus industries outside the EU 11 Low costs Generally good performances Sometimes quality issue ebuses more adapted to EU market Synergies with EU OEMs

12 IN OPERATION! IN OPERATION Barcelona (IRIZAR) Stockholm (VOLVO) Münster (VDL) Pilsen (SKODA) Warsaw (SOLARIS) London (ADL) Nederland Cagliari (VAN HOOL / SOLARIS) Bonn (SILEO) Barcelona (SOLARIS) Paris (BLUEBUS) 12 INITIAL OPERATION INITIAL OPERATION

13 ZEEUS OBSERVATORY An extended Network of local experience European Cities experiencing ebuses 60 Cities (and 2 airports) 400 e-buses Publication in October City experiences World trends Industry products First results of ZeEUS Tests 13 pauline.bruge@uitp.org

14 IS BUS THE CINDERELLA OF TRANSPORT? 14 and they lived happily ever after Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -

15 THANKS Umberto Guida - Umberto Guida - Director Research & Innovation -