GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
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1 GLOBAL ECONOMICS, REAL ESTATE PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017 RICHARD BARKHAM GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
2 BREXIT
3 TRUMPISM
4 EURO-TRUMPISM 4 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
5 LET S GET GEOPOLITICS IN PERSPECTIVE G7 COUNTRIES, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%) 8 FALKLANDS WAR US EMBASSY IN BEIRUT BOMBED SYRIA WAR JAPANESE TSUNAMI 7 6 REAGAN SHOT IRAN-IRAQ WAR STARTS GLASNOST IN USSR INDIRA GANDHI KILLED IRAN-IRAQ WAR ENDS LOCKERBIE BOMBING 1ST GULF WAR IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT BERLIN WALL FALLS MAASTRICHT TREATY BOSNIAN WAR ENDS FALL OF THE SOVIET UNION BRITISH RULE IN EUROZONE CREATED / 11 US INVASION OF IRAQ MADRID TRAIN BOMBING GAZA WAR RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR ISIS EMERGES PARIS BOMBING CRIMEA ANNEXED BREXIT VOTE / TRUMP Source: Research, Macrobond, IMF, WEO. 5 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
6 ONLY THE CYCLE MATTERS G7 Countries Unemployment Rate (%) We are close to the cyclical trough Source: Research, Macrobond, IMF, WEO. 6 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
7 THE CYCLE DRIVES WORLD EQUITY VALUES MSCI Equities 2Y-o-2Y (%) G7 Unemployment (%) Source: Research, Macrobond, MSCI, G7 Unemployment (inverted) MSCI World Equities Index (2y/2y) 2 year lag 7 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
8 AND WORLD REAL ESTATE VALUES G7 Unemployment and Global Composite Office Yield (%) Source: Research, Macrobond, Global Composite Office Yield G7 Unemployment 8 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
9 AND FUNDAMENTALS (EUROPEAN OFFICE VACANCY ) European Office Vacancy (%) G7 Unemployment (%) SLUGGIS H European Office vacancy G 7 Unemployment Source: Research, Macrobond 9 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
10 AND RENTAL PRESSURE Euro Office Rental Growth (%) G7 Unemployment (%) SLUGGIS H Average Euro Offices G7 Unemployment SOURCE: RESEARCH, MACROBOND. 10 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
11 GEOPOLITICS RARELY BRINGS THE CYCLE TO AN END
12 INTEREST RATES ARE KEY TO THE END OF THE CYCLE G7 INTEREST RATE, DEVIATIONS FROM TREND AND G7 UNEMPLOYMENT G7 Unemployment(%) Interest Rate (%) Spike Spike Spike 5 No Spike G7 Unemployment G7 Interest rate, deviations from trend Source: Research, Macrobond, Economics, Pricing & Outlook For 2017
13 SO WHY IS IT NOT HAPPENING?
14 ITS BEEN A VERY TOUGH RECOVERY
15 THE U.S. WAS VERY BADLY DAMAGED BY THE GFC U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT (U3 AND U6, %) % % U6 Unemployment U3 Unemployment U3 Unemployment forecast U6 Unemployment forecast Source: Research, BLS, Q ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
16 THE EUROZONE CRISIS WAS A MAJOR HICCUP Eurozone Unemployment (%) Four wasted years Unemployment Unemployment Forecast What might have been Source: Research, Macrobond, Q ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
17 THE RISE AND SLOWDOWN IN CHINA IS PART OF THE STORY China GDP Growth Y-O-Y (%) AVERAGE 10% AVERAGE 9% 8 NEW NORMAL 6% Source: Research, Macrobond GDP growth GDP growth forecast ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
18 MOST RECENTLY AN EMERGING MARKETS CRISIS Average annual GDP growth (%) China Emerging Markets Brazil Russia Opec Source: Research, Macrobond. 18 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
19 DEMAND SHOCKS HAVE KEPT INFLATION DANGEROUSLY LOW Core CPI Inflation vs. Target Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK U.S. Core Source: Research, Macrobond, Q ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
20 THERE IS A BIGGER PROBLEM OF GLOBALIZATION 20 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
21 TRADE SHOCK FROM CHINA Share Of World Manufacturing Output (%) Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK U.S. Brazil China India Russia Source: Research, Macrobond ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
22 REMEMBER THE FIRST OIL SHOCK?
23 CAPITAL RECYCLING THEN 1970s OPEC THE WEST 23 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
24 CAPITAL RECYCLING NOW Now OPEC CHINA EMs THE WEST 24 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
25 THE WORLD HAS FAILED TO DE-LEVER Change In Debt To GDP By Country 2007 To 2014 (%) Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK U.S. Brazil China India Russia Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Research, ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
26 BACK TO THE CYCLE? 26 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
27 Budget balance, % of GDP THE CHINESE STARTED IT China, Central Government Budget Balance, % of GDP 1 0 (1) Major fiscal boost (2) (3) (4) (5) Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Source: Research, Macrobond, ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
28 TRUMP IS ALSO ON THE CASE
29 5.0% REAL WAGES ARE GROWING STRONGLY US REAL EARNINGS GROWTH 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% REAL EARNING GROWTH AVERAGE 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% SOURCE: RESEARCH, MACROBOND 29 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
30 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% INFLATION IS TRENDING UP US CORE CPI 2.5% 2.0% CORE-CPI TARGET 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% SOURCE: RESEARCH, MACROBOND 30 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
31 A MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE SHOULD BE EXPECTED
32 Jan 1995 Jan 1996 Jan 1997 Jan 1998 Jan 1999 Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018 SHORT RATES HEADING UP Fed Funds Rate (%) U3 Unemployment (%) Cyclical low last 20 years Fed funds U.S. forecast (Oxford) Fed dots Forward curve Unemployment Unemployment (forecast) Source: Atlanta Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Macrobond, Research. 32 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
33 12/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 LONG RATES HAVE ALREADY MOVED US Government 10 Year Bond Yield (%) Source: Macrobond, Research, ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
34 AN ERA OF DANGEROUS DOLLAR STRENGTH S&P 500 CORPORATE EARNINGS, USD NOMINAL TRADE WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATE EXCHANGE RATE (USD) CORPORATE EARNINGS (USD, BN) S&P 500 Corporate Earnings SOURCE: RESEARCH, MACROBOND & ST. LOUIS FED USD Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate 34 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
35 Czech republic Thailand China Malaysia Taiwan Israel South Korea South Africa Phillippines Poland Russia India Qatar Mexico Indonesia Hong Kong Colombia Singapore Chile Turkey Brazil EMERGING MARKET $ DEBT Exports of Good Services & Income Receipts (%) Private sector Loans Private sector Source: CreditSights, Bloomberg Business review, BIS, BAML Index Data, Haver, ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
36 OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL REAL ESTATE PRICING 36 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
37 WORLD REAL ESTATE PRICES G7 Unemployment and Global Composite Office Yield (%) Source: Research, Macrobond, Global Composite Office Yield G7 Unemployment 37 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
38 3/1/ /1/1990 9/1/1991 6/1/1992 3/1/ /1/1993 9/1/1994 6/1/1995 3/1/ /1/1996 9/1/1997 6/1/1998 3/1/ /1/1999 9/1/2000 6/1/2001 3/1/ /1/2002 9/1/2003 6/1/2004 3/1/ /1/2005 9/1/2006 6/1/2007 3/1/ /1/2008 9/1/2009 6/1/2010 3/1/ /1/2011 9/1/2012 6/1/2013 3/1/ /1/2014 9/1/2015 6/1/2016 ACTUALLY TWO KEY DRIVERS GLOBAL OFFICE YIELDS VERSUS G7 BOND RATES AND G7 UNEMPLOYMENT G7 Unemployment (%) Global Office Yield, G7 Average Bond Rate (%) Source: Research, Macrobond, G7 Unemployment Global Composite Office Yield G7 bond rate 38 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
39 KEY COEFFICIENTS 70 bps G7 bonds 50 bps G7 unemployment SOURCE: RESEARCH 39 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
40 CONCLUSIONS
41 Globalisation has thrown up many problems Political volatility will be with us for some time Fiscal stimulus - immediate response correct Trade and immigration checks longer term response - wrong Capital glut diminishing Rates depressed in medium term, but end in sight? Cycle alive and well Demand shocks had moderating impact this will reverse End of cycle Will driven by the U.S. will unfold in emerging markets 41 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
42 Real estate (firm conclusions) Fundamentals and rent pressure will protect values for 24 months But the era of yield compression is over bond rates win in medium term Next recession probably reasonably mild Real estate (speculative conclusions) Regime shift back to a higher inflation higher interest rate world More higher yielding bonds to compete with prime real estate Questions to be answered Will de-globalisation affect cross border capital flows? 42 ECONOMICS, PRICING & OUTLOOK FOR 2017
43 THANK YOU PROFESSOR RICHARD BARKHAM PHD MRICS GLOBAL CHIEF ECONOMIST
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