US Economic Outlook IHS ECONOMICS. Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, ,

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1 IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook US Economic Outlook How long will the ride last? September 2014 ihs.com Paul Edelstein, Director NA Financial Economics, ,

The US economy is gaining momentum US Outlook/ September 2014 Third-quarter economic growth remains strong, supported by a pickup in homebuilding, a drop in imports, and robust capital spending.

2 The US economy is gaining momentum US Outlook/ September 2014 Third-quarter economic growth remains strong, supported by a pickup in homebuilding, a drop in imports, and robust capital spending. An end to above-trend inventory accumulation will be a headwind to growth in late 2014 and early Consumers will cautiously boost spending in response to gains in employment, income, and household net worth. Homebuilding will rise in as supply catches up with demand. Capital spending will accelerate in in response to global market growth, replacement needs, and technological advances. Interest rates will rise significantly over the next three years as monetary accommodation is withdrawn. 2

3 Looking forward, we will still be counting on consumer spending to drive the bulk of economic growth Contributions to real GDP growth Annualized percentage change Real GDP Consumer spending Fixed investment Housing Inventories Exports Imports Government 3

4 The Institute for Supply Management s indexes signal growth in manufacturing and services ISM indexes 65 Over 50 indicates expansion Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) 4

5 Is the labor market getting tight enough to drive wage pressures? Job creation and the unemployment rate Number of new jobs (000s) Unemployment rate (%) Employment growth Unemployment rate 5

6 The big question: Is the labor market loose or tight? Why do we need to know? Will drive timing and magnitude of Fed actions. Is the current condition of the labor market due to either: Structural issues mismatches between labor supply and demand (TIGHT) Cyclical issues inadequate economic growth (LOOSE) Structural Issues Aging labor force Inadequate skills Poor mobility Cyclical Issues Disillusionment with job search prospects Poor job growth in manufacturing and construction sectors Inadequate wages 6

7 About 3% of the working age population has dropped out of the labor force since the end of the recession Employment and labor Number of Workers (Millions) Percent of labor force Employment (Left) Labor force (Left) Participation rate (Right) 62 7

8 Two problems: (1) Participation rates are falling. (2) More people are moving into age cohorts with generally lower participation rates. Working age population by age cohort (Millions) Labor force participation rates (est.) 17% 65% 82% 84% 18% 64% 80% 82% % 81% 73% 71% 0 38% 34%

9 Layoffs are down, but labor market lacking in dynamism. Labor market mobility characteristics % of private labor force/month Thousands of workers Hires (left) Quits (left) Jobless claims (right) 9

10 Structural unemployment? More unemployed workers per job opening Beveridge Curve ( ) Job openings (thousands) Unemployed (millions of workers) 10

11 There s still a cadre of workers looking to add hours. Part-timers for economic reasons (000s) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,

12 No discernible inflation pressures here Average hourly earnings Percent change vs. year-ago Why are wages not rising? Sector mix a disproportional amount of jobs created in lowerpaying fields Skills displacement improved tools enabling lower paid employees to work at levels formerly held by higher paid staff Pent up wage deflation sticky wages prevented full wage adjustments from occurring during the recession Labor market slack many facets of the labor market still face excess supply issues 12

13 Only the services areas are materially adding jobs Employment before and after the recession (millions) Local Government State Government Federal Government Leisure & Hospitality Healthcare Transportation Education Other Services Information Wholesale Financial Services Retail Prof. & Bus. Services Losses from recession: 7.4 million Changes since recession end: 8.2 million Utilities Mining Construction Manufacturing *=Recession period: December 2007 through June 2009 Change during recession * Change since end of recession * 13

14 Do we exclude the long-term unemployed when looking at how a tight labor market may drive wage pressures? Number of unemployed in the labor force (000s) US Outlook/ September ,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Total number of unemployed Long-term unemployed Short-term unemployed 14

15 Here s what the Fed is looking at to identify inflation. Personal consumption deflators 5 Percent change vs. year-ago All goods and services Excluding food and energy 15

16 Are inflation expectations well anchored? US Outlook/ September year TIPS spread /1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/

17 Consumer spending: Positives beginning to outweigh the negatives. Slow wage growth Debt burdens still high Negative Forces Student loan debt on the rise Low fertility rates and population growth rates Real median household income flat, income inequality up Poverty rates elevated Food prices creeping up Positive Forces Pent-up demand for durable goods (autos) Jobs growth picking up House prices rising Debt burdens lower Household asset values surpassed pre-crisis levels (for some) E-commerce retail sales gaining share of retail trade Back-to-school retail sales looking solid but not as strong as last year 17

18 Household median and mean incomes have been stagnant for more than a decade dollars $80,000 $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 US OUTLOOK US Outlook/ / SEPTEMBER September 2014 $40, Median Mean Source: US Census: Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States 18

19 Households still deleveraging, though more slowly Mortgage and non-mortgage debt as percent of disposable income

20 Households only willing to accumulate certain types of debt. Percent of disposable income US OUTLOOK US Outlook/ / SEPTEMBER September Non-revolving Revolving 20

21 US light-vehicle sales hold at near pre-recession sales rates. Light-vehicle sales 20 Millions of units, annual rates Total Cars Light trucks 21

22 The housing recovery should be here, but US Outlook/ September 2014 Pluses Reasonable mortgage rates Decent job creation Consumer deleveraging helps affordability Recent history of price appreciation Rental markets tight, helping spur multi-family starts Minuses Adverse household formation among under-35 and y.o. households. Greater perceived risk of holding real estate Higher input prices for builders squeezing margins Shortage of buildable lots Very stringent lending standards for builders and buyers Job mobility stuck at recession levels Significant student loan burden Lack of distressed properties for sale, especially impacting investor demand Household formation has slowed again 22

23 Single-family housing indicators: Also improving, but slowly Existing Home Sales* 5.5 New Home Sales* Housing Permits* Housing Starts* *Millions, SA 23

24 Housing picks up, but not back to last decade s peaks; share of multi-family increases. Housing starts Millions of units Single Family Multi-family 24

25 We expect the decline in rental vacancy rates to spur building activity Rental vacancy rates Percent of total units

26 Over the past ten years, 4% of all households have sold their homes without buying anew Homeownership rates Percent of households

27 Homeownership rates are dropping for all age cohorts except maybe 65+ Homeownership rates by age cohort % of households US Under and up 27

28 Household formation has slowed sharply Household formation year-on-year change Millions of households

29 Purchasing managers indexes for manufacturing give mixed signals Purchasing (Index, managers over 50 indicates indexes expansion) Index, over 50 signals expansion United States Eurozone China Japan Sources: Institute for Supply Management (US), Markit, National Bureau of Statistics (China) GPS/October

30 Destinations of US merchandise exports US Outlook/ September 2014 Merchandise exports Percent of total, 2013 Pacific Rim 24.6% All other 9.7% China 7.7% Japan 4.1% Canada 19.0% Europe 20.7% Other Americas 11.7% Mexico 14.3% 30

31 Interest rate lift-off in June US Outlook/ September 2014 Interest rates Fed Funds Rate 10-year Treasury 31

32 Fed will tighten with a big balance sheet US Outlook/ September 2014 Fed assets 5,000 4,000 Billions $ 3,000 2,000 1, MBS Treasury securities Agency debt 32 32

33 Bond market conundrum flight-to-safety theory Decomposition of 10-year Treasury yield (percent) /2/2013 7/2/2013 1/2/2014 7/2/ year yield term premium short-rate expect

34 Bond market conundrum secular stagnation theory Treasury yields (percent) /1/2013 7/1/2013 1/1/2014 7/1/ year forward 10-year rate 5-year rate 34 34

35 The secret isn t out yet in Washington: The federal budget deficit is unproblematic Federal budget balance sheet 30% 25% 20% Percent of GDP 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Cessation of stimulus Repeal of Bush tax cuts Spending sequester cuts Revenues Expenditures Deficit 35

36 Federal debt to stabilize at around 70% of GDP. US Outlook/ September 2014 Publically held federal debt Percent of GDP

37 Most federal spending growth that will occur over the next decade will involve transfer payments Federal budget expenditures Billions of USD 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, CAGRs 1.2% 7.7% 5.1% 1, % 1.5% Defense Spending Nondefense Spending Transfer Payments Interest Payments Subsidies 37

38 Stock prices are reaching new peaks: S&P 500 US Outlook/ September 2014 S&P 500 stock price index Index level $s per share (ann. 4-quarter MA) SP500 (LEFT) SP500 EPS (RIGHT) 38

39 Stock prices are looking overvalued on some measures. Robert Shiller s Cyclical-Adjusted PE Ratio (S&P500)

40 Increases in interest rates lead to turning points in the equity market. Relationship between S&P 500 and Fed policy Percent change Percent yield S&P500 (Left scale) Fed Funds Rate (Right scale) 40

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