CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH. Southern California Regional Economic Forecast
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1 CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH Southern California Regional Economic Forecast Lisa M. Grobar, Ph.D. Director, CSULB Economic Forecast Project Office of Economic Research
2 2009: A terrible year for job market 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%
3 2009: Region Shares the Pain 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% Los Angeles Orange R/SB Ventura
4 Quarterly Employment Growth Rates Percent LA OC RSB V
5 Forecast Summary Better, but not good Positive job growth! Healthy economic growth
6 Total Nonfarm Employment Growth 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% forecast
7 The downturn began with housing-related sectors Since 2006, the region has lost 188,000 construction jobs and 82,000 jobs in financial services It will take more than a decade for these sectors to return to 2006 peak employment levels
8 Construction and Mining 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Employment Growth forecast -25%
9 Finance Employment Growth 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% forecast
10 In 2009 the downturn spread more broadly Cyclical sectors all see large downturn as national recession worsens Retail particularly hard-hit with the decline in consumer spending
11 Durable Manufacturing 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Employment Growth forecast
12 Regional Taxable Sales Growth Percent
13 Retail Employment Growth 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% forecast
14 Port of Long Beach: Loaded 370,000 Inbound Containers (TEUs) 320, , , , ,
15 Regional Transportation, 4% 3% 2% Warehousing & Utilities forecast 1% 0% -1% -2% % -4%
16 Regional Professional & Business 6% 4% Services Employment Growth forecast 2% 0% -2% % -6% -8% -10%
17 Areas of Growth for 2010 Health Services Information Federal Government
18 Health Services 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Employment Growth forecast
19 Federal Government Employment 4% 3% 2% 1% forecast 0% -1% -2% -3%
20 Regional Economy Summary The region is starting to pull out of recession Annual job losses continue this year (but quarterly gains beginning in Q3) Conditions will improve significantly in 2011, with positive job growth A return to healthy job formation in 2012
21 Economic Outlook Los Angeles County
22 Total Nonfarm Employment 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Los Angeles County
23 Retail Employment Growth 4% 2% forecast 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%
24 California Film Incentives Last year CA allocated $500 million in tax credits through 2014 As of January the program used up the first 2 years of funding Employment in LA County motion pictures up 10,000 from year-ago But program is out of money until next fiscal year
25 Information Employment Growth 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% forecast
26 Los Angeles County 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Total Nonfarm Employment Growth forecast
27 Economic Outlook Orange County
28 Orange County Professional and Business services will lead Orange County out of the recession We expect Orange County to be the bestperforming economy in the region in
29 Orange County 4% 2% Total Nonfarm Employment Growth forecast 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%
30 Economic Outlook Riverside/San Bernardino
31 Riverside/San Bernardino This area hit very hard by sub-prime crisis As a result, the housing market will take longer to recover and will continue to be a drag on the economy through 2011.
32 Riverside/San Bernardino 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Total Nonfarm Employment Growth forecast
33 Economic Outlook Ventura County
34 Ventura County 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Total Nonfarm Employment Growth forecast
35 The Housing Market
36 The Regional Housing Market Coastal areas bottomed out in 2009 Median price up, but mostly reflecting more higher-priced homes in the mix Our view: it looks like the beginning of a recovery for the coastal areas But 2010 could see a bumpy ride as federal tax credits expire in April
37 Los Angeles County Median Price
38 Orange County Median Price
39 Proportion of Foreclosures in 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Housing Transfers LA Orange Riverside
40 Los Angeles County Housing Affordability Index % of Households that can buy 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: CA Association of Realtors
41 Orange County Housing Affordability Index % of Households that can buy 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: CA Association of Realtors
42 Housing Market in Near Term Credit is slowly easing The mix of homes is starting to shift back toward higher-priced homes, causing median price to rise True appreciation has been much smaller Once recovery gets underway, median price increases will reflect true appreciation
43 Los Angeles County Forecast of Housing Appreciation [year-to-year percentage change in median price] 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%
44 Orange County Forecast of Housing Appreciation [year-to-year percentage change in median price] 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
45 Summary 2009 was the trough of this housing cycle Median home prices rise in Los Angeles and Orange County in 2010 Sustained appreciation through 2012
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