Manitoba Water Stewardship. Coping with Drought. Drought Research Initiative Workshop. Inn at the Forks, Winnipeg. A.A. Warkentin. January 11-13, 2007

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1 Manitoba Water Stewardship Coping with Drought Drought Research Initiative Workshop Inn at the Forks, Winnipeg A.A. Warkentin January 11-13, 2007

3 Annual Renewal of Water Supplies Important Precipitation-based Parameters: 1. Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up (May-Oct. antecedent Year). 2. Snow Accumulation (November-March). 3. Spring/Early Summer Rains (April-July).

4 Parameter Analysis for Period (74 years) Mean of 9 Long-Term Stations in Southern Manitoba Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up: out of 74 Dry 19 years Winter Precipitation: 74 Dry 19 years out of April July Precipitation: out of 74 Dry 16 years

5 Drought Persistence based on Parameter Analysis (Average of 9 Climate stations in Southern Manitoba) For 19 Years when SM at Freeze-Up was Low: Winter was Dry 5 times Wet 5 times Average 9 times April July was Dry 2 times Wet 7 times Average 10 times

6 Drought Analysis Average of 9 Stations in Southern Manitoba Of the 74 Years ( ) in Southern Manitoba None had all three parameters below 80% of average. Following 12 years had low Parameters

8 Lake Winnipegosis Mean Monthly Elevation Elevation (feet above sea level)

9 Lake Winnipeg Mean Monthly Elevation Recorded Summer Target Jan-70 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Elevation (feet above sea level)

10 Lake of the Woods Mean Monthly Elevation for January Monthly Recorded Average January ( ) Elevation (feet above sea level)

11 Split Lake at Split Lake Mean Monthly Elevation Elevation (feet above sea level) Recorded Average Predicted Dry Predicted Median Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03

12 Red River at Emerson Mean Monthly Flow for January January Recorded Average January ( ) Flow (cfs)

13 Assiniboine River at Headingley Mean Monthly Flow for January 2000 January Recorded Average January ( ) Flow (cfs)

14 Winnipeg River at Slave Falls Mean Monthly Flow for January January Recorded Average January ( ) Flow (cfs)

15 Grass River at Standing Stone Falls Mean Monthly Flow for January January Recorded Normal January ( ) Flow (cfs)

16 Lake Minnewasta near Morden Daily Average Elevation Elevation (feet above sea level) Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07

17 Primary Drought Related Concerns Reservoir storages supplying communities. River levels to enable pumping for cities, towns, irrigation. Aquifer levels supplying communities, farms. Dugouts supplying water for cattle. Suitable lake levels for water supply, fish, recreation. Supplies for hydroelectric generation. Deterioration of Water Quality.

18 Primary Drought Sensitivities Summer reservoir operations sensitive to short intense meteorological droughts (2 4 weeks) within a relatively dry period. Multiple use reservoir operations sensitive to longer dry periods (several months to years). Rivers, dugouts sensitive to short droughts like Spring runoff very important but rest of year important also. Aquifers sensitive to multiple year droughts. Long term drought-proofing strategies sensitive to design drought (worst on record). Water uses sensitive to temperature. Water quality sensitive to flow rates, temperature and

19 Drought Information Sources Historical and real time levels of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, aquifers Water Survey of Canada, Manitoba Water Stewardship. Information on water uses Manitoba Water Stewardship and licensed users. Precipitation Data and Statistics Timely Climate Monitoring Network. Climate Outlooks MSC and NOAA. Soil Moisture Manitoba Water Stewardship, Manitoba Agriculture. Snowcover Manitoba Water Stewardship, Climate Research Branch. Drought Indices (NADM) PFRA. On-farm water supplies Manitoba Water Services Board, PFRA, Manitoba Agriculture. Information on local conditions regional staff of provincial and municipal government.

23 Water Supply Conditions and Outlook for Manitoba 2004 Based on Lower Decile Precipitation from February onward Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship, February 5, 2004 Historical Droughts, Weather. Soil Moisture and SnowcoverConditions Status / Forecast for Major Rivers, Lakes, Reservoirs Aquifers, On-Farm Water supplies Potential Problems within each Major Watershed.

Cree Lake SASKATCHEWAN Reindeer Lake Lynne Lake Churchill Big Sand Lake 50 Southern Indian Lake Split Lake River

Albert La Ronge MANITOBA FlinFlon The Pas Highrock Lake Wekusko Lake Cedar Lake Thompson Sipiwesk Lake Lake

Saskatoon 25 ONTARIO 75 50 MANITOBA WATER BRANCH Spring Runoff Forecast For 2004 With Lower Decile Precip. Feb.

30, 2004 Swift Current Regina Yorkton Estevan 50 25 Minot Provisional Data ( Subject to Revision ) Dauphin Brandon

24 Cree Lake SASKATCHEWAN Reindeer Lake Lynne Lake Churchill Big Sand Lake 50 Southern Indian Lake Split Lake River 75 Stephens Lake 100 River River Gods Hudson Bay River Vermilion ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN North Battleford Prince Albert La Ronge MANITOBA FlinFlon The Pas Highrock Lake Wekusko Lake Cedar Lake Thompson Sipiwesk Lake Lake Winnipeg Nelson Knee Lake Gods Lake Island Lake Hayes MANITOBA ONTARIO Sandy Lake Big Trout Lake Coronation Saskatoon 25 ONTARIO MANITOBA WATER BRANCH Spring Runoff Forecast For 2004 With Lower Decile Precip. Feb.-April Percent of 30 Year Median PREPARED: DRAWN: SUBMITTED: Medicine Hat 100 A.A.W. DATE: Jan. 30, 2004 Swift Current Regina Yorkton Estevan Minot Provisional Data ( Subject to Revision ) Dauphin Brandon U.S.A. MANITOBA Winnipeg Grand Forks Fargo Red Lake Kenora Lake of the Woods 25 Lac Seul SCALE IN MILES Lake St. Joseph Atikokan

25 Feb. 3, 2004 Manitoba Water Stewardship Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004 Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on. Spring Runoff: Rivers: -Well below average most areas due to dry soil, low depression storage (flood risk is very low). Lakes: -most larger rivers presently at year lows. -Red, Assiniboine, Churchill lower than in some improvement on Winnipeg River, Nelson River. -continued water shortages for optimum hydroelectric generation. -water quality, fishery a concern. -Many lakes presently at year lows. -minor rise or decline expected in water quality, recreation and fish a serious concern.

26 Feb. 3, 2004 Reservoirs: (operated by Manitoba Water Stewardship) Aquifers: -most reservoirs close to full after spring runoff. -reservoirs with small drainage areas will remain low. -could be some stress on Shellmouth Reservoir. -Most aquifers low but not as low as in early 1990 s. -minor rise in spring likely (significant in confined aquifers). -levels in autumn lower than in 2003 on heavily used aquifers. -wells on smaller aquifers could run dry. -fringe areas of major aquifers could run dry. -continued problems at Ogilvie Aquifers. -possible water access problems at Selkirk, Birds Hill, McCreary. On-Farm Water Supplies: -dugouts are very low in most areas except SE Manitoba. -should be enough water to pump-fill most dugouts this spring. -many shallow farm wells likely to run dry by late summer. -water hauling will be necessary where piped water not available. Manitoba Water Stewardship Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004 Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on.

27 Lake Manitoba Forecast Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Jan 28, Observed Predicted Lower Decile Feet above Sea Level Predicted Median Predicted Upper Decile Summer Target (under review) Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04

29 1410 Shellmouth Reservoir Operation Scenarios---Jan. 28, 2004 Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship Maintain 150 cfs unless Heavy Snow develops Lower Decile Level 1200 Median Level Reservoir Level in Feet Upper Decile Level Target After Spring Runoff Lower Decile Outflow Median Upper Decile Outflow in CFS Jan. 28/04 Jan. 31/04 Feb. 14/04 Feb. 28/04 Mar. 15/04 Mar. 31/04 Apr. 15/04 Apr. 30/04 May 15/04 May 31/04 June 15/04

31 Manitoba Water Stewardship Uses of Drought Information Hydrologic data is used in combination with soil moisture, precipitation, and climate statistics to prepare forecasts for rivers, reservoirs, and lakes. Control works operated based on forecasts and risk of drought continuing. Inter-Departmental Drought Committee activated when risk of water shortages is high. Plans formulated to cope with drought. Water conservation is undertaken uses restricted to important needs. Actions such as: -pumping to fill dugouts during spring. -water hauling. -deepening of wells, drilling new wells. -using alternate sources of water. -water rationing.

32 Pertinent DRI Research Forecasting onset of Droughts. Forecasting Duration of Droughts. Forecasting Spatial Extent of Drought. Forecasting Severity of Droughts. Statistics (probability) of various types of droughts for several time horizons e.g. 2050, Knowledge of Causes. (Frequency, Duration, Extent, Severity) e.g. Less Snow, Greater Evapotranspiration, different annual time distribution of runoff, summer dry or winter dry.

33 Manitoba Water Stewardship How can DRI work with us? Short Term (first year): Outline Objectives and Research Conducted. Ask Partners for Feedback. Progress Report at end of Year. Longer Term (next 4 years): Annual Progress Reports. Additional Workshop at end of 2 nd Year (or as Recommended by Researchers). Overview of significant results as soon as available.

36 Lake Winnipegosis Mean Monthly Elevation for January Monthly Recorded Average January ( ) Elevation (feet above sea level)

37 Lake Winnipeg Mean Monthly Elevation for January Monthly Recorded Average January ( ) Elevation (feet above sea level)

38 Lake of the Woods Mean Monthly Elevation Elevation (feet above sea level) Recorded Jan-70 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Summer Target

39 Churchill River at Leaf Rapids Mean Monthly Flow for January January Recorded Normal January ( ) Flow (cfs)

Adopted Regulation Strategy Lake of the Woods Control Board Regulation Meeting March 12, 2013

Adopted Regulation Strategy Lake of the Woods Control Board Regulation Meeting March 12, 2013 The Lake of the Woods Control Board held a Regulation Meeting March 12, 2013 in Kenora. The strategy was formulated