Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
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1 Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013
2 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic growth 2013 tax increases, sequester, budget debate, and healthcare (2014). The housing recovery and auto production are helping freight volumes. The U.S. energy production boom is boosting truck tonnage. Freight drags include, slower manufacturing output and concerns over Fed tapering.
3 30% 25% 20% 15% 25.0% Various Housing Industry Measures (YTD Year-Over-Year Percent Change) 23.1% 22.0% 19.3% 17.2% 10% 5% 0% New Housing Starts New Home Sales New Permits Residential Construction Spending Existing Home Sales Sources: Census Bureau, NAR, and ATA
4 Myth 1: Recent increases in home prices and interest rates will derail the housing recovery.
5 Home Prices Percent Change in Single-Family Home Prices From July % +16.4% +23.2% +27.0% +17.0% +6.5% TN home prices are off just 4.3% from peak in July Source: CoreLogic >15% <0% 10%-14.9% 5%-9.9% 0%-4.9% National Average: 12.4%
6 30-Year Fixed Mortgage The Housing Recovery 6% July: 4.37%, the highest average since July % 4% 3% 2% Sources: Freddie Mac & ATA Low: 3.4%
7 20% 15% 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates ( YTD; Average Annual Rates) 1981: 16.6% 2013 YTD: 3.7% 10% 5% 0% Source: Freddie Mac
8 Despite the Rise in Mortgage Rates, 30- Year Fixed Mortgages & Home Ownership is Still Cheap Historically Year Median Home Price Inflation Adjusted Median Price Interest Rate Monthly Payment Inflation Adjusted Monthly Payment 1981 $68,900 $182, % $960 $2, $195,000 $255, % $1,148 $1, $257, % 81 +1% % $1,317 Monthly payment is interest and principal only; Median home prices are of new residential homes (2013 is July); Inflation adjusted is Q Dollars Sources: Freddie Mac, Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and ATA -48% 81-13% 03
9 Housing Summary Rising prices and rising mortgage rates will slow the housing recovery, but not detail it. 5.1-months supply of existing homes in July, down from 6.3-months in June 2012, which is helping home building. Distressed homes foreclosures and short sales were only 15% of sales in July, down from 24% a year earlier. Home prices increased 12.4% from July 2012, the 17 th straight gain, although prices are still 18% below April 2006 peak.
10 Myth 2: Consumer confidence drives consumer spending.
11 Drivers of Household Spending 10% % 5% 3.7% 5.2% 4.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 0% Total Payrolls 0.3% Real Disposable Income Existing Home Values Sources: BEA, BLS, and ATA
12 Thousands Sources: DOL and ATA Average Payroll Changes by Quarter Jobs (Avg/mo) 186k 182k 210k Unemployment Rate 8.1% 7.6% 7.2% 2010 Q Avg 155k
13 Billions Retail Sales $450 Total Sales 5.3% 4.2% 5.4% 15% $425 $400 Year-over-Year Percent Change (Speed) Level (Direction) 10% 5% $375 $350 $325 $ % -5% -10% -15% Sources: Census Bureau & ATA
14 Myth 3: The U.S. doesn t make anything anymore.
15 World s Top Manufacturing Economies Fact: U.S. is largest or second largest manufacturing country depending on how it is measured. China 17.9% China 15.2% ROW 59.6% U.S. 14.9% ROW 56.7% U.S. 19.3% Japan 7.6% Japan 8.8% Current $ Real $ with Exchange Rate Adjustments Source: United Nations
16 New Factory Orders x Aircraft $480,000 $460,000 $440,000 $420,000 $400,000 $380,000 $360,000 $340,000 $320,000 $300,000 Year-over-Year Percent Change (Speed) Millions of $ (Level) % 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Sources: Census Bureau & ATA
17 2007 = 100 Factory Output Year-over-Year Percent Change Level of Production 10% 5% Factory Output 4.2% 2.3% 2.9% 0% -5% -10% -15% % Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA
18 5% 4% 3.6% Increases in U.S. Factory Output by Decade (Average Annual Increases) 3.5% 3.7% 3% 2% 1% 2.0% 1.5% 0% Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
19 Myth 4: The U.S. imports most of our energy.
20 Million Barrels per Day U.S. is Becoming Energy Total U.S. fuel consumption is at the lowest level in 17 years. 2. The U.S. is now a net fuel EXPORTER for the first time since By 2020, the U.S. is projected to become the largest oil producer globally (currently number 3). Crude Oil Imports Crude Oil Production Source: EIA
21 20% 15% Crude and Natural Gas Production (Annual Increases) 13.8% 15.1% % 5% 5.4% 0% Crude Source: Energy Information Administration 1.0% Natural Gas
22 Myth 5: Inflation is on the verge of surging.
23 Inflation Measures (Average Annual Percent Change) 4% % 3.3% 2013 YTD 3% 2014 Forecast 2.5% 2.3% 2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1% 1.1% 0.3% 0% Sources: DOL and ATA CPI Core CPI PPI Core PPI CPI: Consumer Price Index Core CPI: CPI x Food & Energy Prices PPI: Producer Price Index Core PPI: PPI x Food & Energy Prices
24 Core CPI Wage Growth Drives Inflation (Scatter Plot of Private Industry Wage Growth & Core CPI) 14% 12% 10% % Sources: DOL & BEA 6% 4% 2% 0% -2%-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Private Industry Wages
25 Myth 6: Fed tapering and rising interest rates will end the recovery.
26 Higher interest rates can have some positive impacts More risk taking/lending by banks More investment from foreigners
27 6% 5% 4% Real Gross Domestic Product (quarterly, annualized rate percent change, 2005 dollars) 2010 Q Real GDP 2.8% 1.5% 2.7% 3% 2% 1% 0% Sources: BEA and ATA
28 Trucking Trends: Demand
29 Changes in Freight Volumes (Seasonally Adjusted) 5% 4.7% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2.3% 0.8% 2012 Jan-Jul YOY 2.4% 1.3% 0% -1% -0.1% Tonnage TL Loads LTL Shipments Sources: ATA s Monthly Truck Tonnage Report & Trucking Activity Report
30 9% Changes in TL Loads by Sector (Seasonally Adjusted) 7% 5% Jan-Jul YOY 5.1% 3% 1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.8% -1% -3% -0.6% Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report Dry Van Flatbed Temp Tank Spot Loads Only
31 10% 5% 2.1% Changes in TL Loads by Sector (Seasonally Adjusted) Jan-Jul YOY 6.7% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -0.6% Short: < 500 miles Medium: miles Long: >1,000 miles -15.8% Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report Short Medium Long Intermodal
32 Trucking Trends: Capacity
33 0% TL & LTL Capacity Changes (Percent Change in the Number of Company & IC Tractors) 0.6% -5% -4.9% -1.6% -10% Jan-Jul YOY -15% -20% Jun '13 vs Dec '07 Includes all types of truckload carriers -15.0% TL Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report LTL
34 Are All TL Fleets Adding Capacity? No Decreased Tractors 37% Added Tractors 39% Unchanged 24% Average Month in 2013 Source: ATA
35 TL Supply vs Demand = TL Tractor Count Index TL Loads Index Oversupply Through July Source: ATA
36 Large For-Hire TL Carriers: Trends in Independent Contractors & Company Drivers Includes all types of TL carriers; January 2012=100; Carriers with at least $30 million in annual revenues Company Drivers: +0.6% ICs: -0.2% Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report
37 Small For-Hire TL Carriers: Trends in Independent Contractors & Company Drivers Source: ATA s Trucking Activity Report Includes all types of TL carriers; January 2012=100; Carriers with less than $30 million in annual revenues Company Drivers: +8.6% ICs: -7.2%
38 ELDs HOS THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT Adding It All Up Reduction in Productivity Fewer Qualified Drivers Sleep Apnea ELDs CSA Increased Demand & Less Supply Economic Growth Truck Count Down from Peak in 2007 Capacity Crunch
39 The Driver Situation
40 TL Truck Driver Turnover Rates 150% 125% 100% Large Small Q Large TL: 97% Small TL: 82% LTL: 15% 75% 50% 25% 0% Q1 '13 Source: ATA
41 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 28.0% Construction Industry 25.7% Snapshot From June 2012 through March 2013, construction employment increased by 184,000. And, in February 2013 alone, construction payrolls grew by 48,000, the largest single month in 7 years YTD 2.0% 2.7% Housing Starts Sources: Census Bureau and Department of Labor Construction Employment
42 Industry Costs
43 Costs Continue to Rise Regulatory Costs Equipment HOS Drivers Pay Turnover Recruitment Fuel Despite Record Production, Fuel Costs Remain Elevated
44 Average Weekly Earnings for TL $900 $ % in Q1 13 YOY Drivers +58% since 1990 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Q1 Source: Department of Labor
45 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 +1.1% in Q1 13 YOY Real Average Weekly Earnings for TL Drivers 2012 Dollars -11% since 1990 Source: Department of Labor Q1
46 Miles Per Truck Per Month Are Down 15,000 Includes all types of TL carriers 10,000 10,946 8,926 7,604 8,250 8,080 7,752 8,069-26% 5, YTD Source: ATA
47 Thanks! Follow me on
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