Global Containerboard Outlook

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1 Global Containerboard Outlook European Conference March 2018 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information

2 Gleb Sinavskis Economist, European Paper Packaging Previous experience in the financial services industry Masters in Economics from Uppsala University, Sweden Author/co author of the Paper Packaging Monitor Europe and European Paper Packaging 5 and 15 Year Forecasts Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 2

3 Agenda Global Overview Asia North America Europe Conclusion Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 3

4 Synchronized Global Economic Growth Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 4

5 Growing Global Population and Urbanization Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 5

6 Rising Share of E Commerce in Global Retail Sales 5, % 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % 8.7% 23.2% 10.1% 21.1% 11.6% 19.1% 13.1% 17.4% 14.6% 16.1% 15.5% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Retail E Commerce Sales Percentage Change Percentage of Total Retail Sales % Source: emarketer, June 2017 Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 6

7 Global Containerboard Demand Growth Is Above Average in Apparent Consumption, Thousand Tonnes Virgin Containerboard Recycled Containerboard Demand Growth, % % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 7

8 Recycled Containerboard Capacity Growth Continues to Outpace Virgin Capacity, MillionTonnes Virgin Containerboard Recycled Containerboard 26% 22.5% Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 8

9 Global Containerboard Demand Asia has the largest market, followed by North America and Western Europe 7% 5% Far East 14% 8% 48% North America Western Europe Latin America Emerging Europe 18% All Other Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 9

10 Global Virgin Containerboard Demand Is Dominated by North America 41 million tonnes in % 6% 17% Far East 12% 12% North America Western Europe Latin America Emerging Europe 47% All Other Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 10

11 Asia Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 11

12 China Continues to Account for More Than 60% of Asian Demand Apparent Consumption, Thousand Tonnes 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Other Countries Japan Thailand Indonesia India Taiwan South Korea China Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 12

13 OCC Price Volatility in China US Dollars per Tonne OCC (1.05) Imports from Europe (Net Price) OCC, Imports from Japan (Net) OCC, Imports from the USA (Net) OCC, Post Consumer (Domestic, Net Price) Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Jan 2017 Apr 2017 Jul 2017 Oct 2017 Jan 2018 Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 13

14 Containerboard Prices in China Increased Substantially, Driven by Escalating Costs US Dollars per Tonne 1, Kraft Top Liner, 170 g, East China Testliner, 140 g, East China High Strength Corrugated Medium, 120 g, East China Jan 2013 Mar 2013 May 2013 Jul 2013 Sep 2013 Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jul 2017 Sep 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 14

15 Monthly Imports in China in by Grade Tonnes 250,000 Recycled Liner Recycled Medium Semichemical Medium Kraftliner 200, , ,000 50,000 0 Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 15

16 Monthly Imports in China in by Region Tonnes 250, ,000 Far East & Oceania North America Russia & CIS Southeastern Europe (Turkey) Western Europe Middle East 150, ,000 50,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 16

17 Chinese Imports Forecast Has Significant Upward Pressure 3.0 Chinese Imports Million Tonnes Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 17

18 Announced Capacity Additions in China Outpace Demand Growth Change in Million Tonnes Demand Capacity Operating Rate 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% 83% Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 18

19 Other Asian (Excl. China) Operating Rates Trending Up as Both Demand and Exports to China Grow Change in Million Tonnes Demand Capacity Operating Rate 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% 84% Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 19

20 North America Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 20

21 North American Box Market Shows Strong Growth Percentage Change of Shipments PERCENTAGE CHANGE Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 21

22 Operating Rates in North America to Stay High Change in Thousand Tonnes, Percent 1,500 1, Demand Capacity Operating Rates % 98% 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 22

23 North American Net Exports of Containerboard Will Increase Change in Net Exports, Million Tonnes Virgin Containerboard Recycled Containerboard Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 23

24 North American Prices Rose, Gap Between Domestic and Export Prices Decreased Significantly US Dollars per Short Ton Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Feb 2018 US East, Unbleached Kraftliner, 42 lb, Open Market China, Unbleached Kraft Linerboard, 175 g+ Southern Europe, Unbleached Kraft Linerboard, 175+ g Central/South America, Unbleached Kraft Linerboard (FAS), 42 lb Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 24

25 Europe Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 25

26 Recycled Containerboard, Western Europe Operating rates will remain above 94% through , % MILLION TONNES 25,018 20,018 15,018 10,018 5, % 3.9% 2.7% 1.8% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% % Demand (APC) Capacity Operating Rate Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 26

27 Virgin Containerboard, Western Europe Operating rates will stay close to 98% in % MILLION TONNES % 3.9% 2.1% 2.6% 97.0% 95.0% 93.0% 91.0% 89.0% % Demand (APC) Capacity Operating Rate Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 27

28 Net Trade Trends in Western Europe Virgin containerboard net imports to increase slowly MILLION TONNES Virgin Containerboard Recycled Containerboard Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 28

29 Germany: Prices Rose to Record Levels in 2017 Euros per Tonne Testliner 2, 140 g, Germany Unbleached Kraftliner, 175 g+, Germany Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 29 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Feb 2018

30 Italy: Prices of Kraftliner Skyrocketed due to Higher Import Prices Euros per Tonne Unbleached Kraftliner, 175+ g, Italy Testliner 2, 140 g, Italy Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Feb 2018 Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 30

31 Price Gap Between Kraftliner and Testliner Increases Euros per Tonne Gap Between Kraftliner 175+ and Testliner 2 Italy Germany Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 31

32 Variable Production Costs Will Rise for Kraftliner Year over Year Percentage Change 7% 5% 3% 1% 1% % 5% Kraftliner 175+ Testliner 2 Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 32

33 Containerboard Demand Growth in Emerging Europe Will Accelerate in Demand (APC) Production MILLION TONNES % Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 33

34 Conclusions Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 34

35 North American Operating Rates Should Remain High Through 2019 And remain well above the rest of the world 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% Western Europe Emerging Europe Far East Latin America North America Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 35

36 Take Home Points on Global Containerboard Elevated global demand growth will continue in Demand growth is solid in both emerging and developed markets Chinese policies are reshuffling trade flows in both PfR and recycled containerboard A lot of uncertainty surrounding China s policies still exists Continued tighter supply/demand balances in virgin containerboard in the near term Higher operating rates in this segment Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 36

37 Thank you! Questions? For more information on RISI s global paper packaging and containerboard coverage, visit Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information 37

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