March 6, SUBJECT: Briefing on Columbia River Basin salmon and steelhead returns for 2017 and run forecasts for 2018
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1 James Yost Chair Idaho W. Bill Booth Idaho Guy Norman Washington Tom Karier Washington Jennifer Anders Vice Chair Montana Tim Baker Montana Ted Ferrioli Oregon Richard Devlin Oregon March 6, 2018 MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: Council members Lynn Palensky SUBJECT: Briefing on Columbia River Basin salmon and steelhead returns for 2017 and run forecasts for 2018 BACKGROUND: Presenters: Dan Rawding (WDFW), Paul Kline (IDFG), and Brian Burke (NOAA NW Fisheries Science Center) Summary: The Council will be briefed on the 2017 returns and 2018 run forecasts of adult salmon and steelhead Dan Rawding (Columbia River Policy and Science Coordinator, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife) will present the latest information on the 2017 adult Chinook, coho, sockeye, and chum salmon and steelhead run forecasts for the Columbia and Snake rivers, with a brief summary of expectations for the 2018 fisheries. His presentation will also include a retrospective review of the 2017 adult salmon and steelhead returns and fisheries in the Columbia River excluding the Snake Basin. Paul Kline (Asst. Chief of Fisheries for the Idaho Department of Fish and Game) will then summarize the recent and historical returns of salmon and steelhead to the Snake River Basin, focusing on the species/run groupings of spring, summer and fall Chinook salmon; summer steelhead; and sockeye salmon. For each species/run grouping, counts of fish crossing Lower Granite Dam will be presented. Numbers of fish passing Lower Granite Dam comprise the aggregate count of adult salmon and 851 S.W. Sixth Avenue, Suite 1100 Steve Crow Portland, Oregon Executive Director Fax:
2 steelhead destined for eastern Oregon s Grande Ronde and Imnaha river drainages and Idaho s Clearwater and Salmon River drainages. Brian Burke (Research Fishery Biologist at NOAA s NW Fisheries Science Center), will present the outlook for Chinook and coho returns to the Columbia River based on local and regional ocean conditions. Relevance: This information is relevant to our high-level indicators. It gives the region a preview for what is expected for adult returns in the current year. Workplan: More Info: This task is captured in the Division s work plan under Adaptive Management - Annual Reports. Links: Columbia River Forecasts: Joint State Staff Reports Columbia River DART:
3 SNAKE RIVER SALMON AND STEELHEAD RETURNS Natural-origin and Hatchery-origin Spring/Summer Chinook Summer Steelhead Sockeye Fall Chinook NPCC March 2018 Presented by: Idaho Department of Fish and Game 1
4 SNAKE RIVER SALMON AND STEELHEAD RETURNS Lower Granite Dam 2
5 NATURAL-ORIGIN SPRING/SUMMER CHINOOK 3
6 HATCHERY-ORIGIN SPRING/SUMMER CHINOOK 4
7 COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN SPRING/SUMMER CHINOOK 5
8 NATURAL-ORIGIN FALL CHINOOK 6
9 HATCHERY-ORIGIN FALL CHINOOK 7
10 COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN FALL CHINOOK 8
11 NATURAL-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD 9
12 NATURAL-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD 10
13 HATCHERY-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD 11
14 HATCHERY-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD 12
15 COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN SUMMER STEELHEAD 13
16 NATURAL-ORIGIN SOCKEYE 14
17 HATCHERY-ORIGIN SOCKEYE 15
18 COMBINED NATURAL- AND HATCHERY-ORIGIN SOCKEYE 16
19 SPRING/SUMMER CHINOOK SUMMARY Natural-Origin Forecast up: 12,655 vs. 4,108 Hatchery-Origin Forecast up: 53,218 vs. 30,179 17
20 FALL CHINOOK SUMMARY Natural-Origin Forecast down: 6,113 vs. 6,966 Hatchery-Origin Forecast down: 12,013 vs. 17,814 18
21 SUMMER STEELHEAD SUMMARY Natural-Origin Forecast up: 24,780 vs. 10,540 Hatchery-Origin Forecast up: 71,300 vs. 59,028 19
22 SOCKEYE SUMMARY Natural-Origin Forecast up: 216 vs. 14 Hatchery-Origin Forecast down: 162 vs
23 COLUMBIA RIVER SALMON AND STEELHEAD RETURNS NPCC March 2018 Presented by: Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
24 U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee 2 Consists of staff from federal, tribal and state entities. TAC reconstructs Columbia River salmon and steelhead returns post season and develops preseason forecasts. TAC reviews salmon and steelhead stock status as the runs progress and provides inseason run size updates. In 2016, TAC met 21 times between May and October to provide inseason run size updates on upriver salmon and steelhead. These inseason updates allow fishery managers to adjust fisheries as necessary in order to remain within ESA limits and management guidelines.
25 Upriver Spring Chinook Total # of fish returning to the mouth of the Columbia River 3 500, , , , , , , , ,000 50, Forecast: 160, Actual: 115, Forecast:166,
26 Upper Columbia Spring Chinook Total # of fish returning to the mouth of the Columbia River 4 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Forecast: 19,300 tot. / 3,300 wild 2017 Return: 11,166 tot. / 2,514 wild total wild 2018 Forecast: 20,100 tot. / 3,400 wild
27 Upper Columbia Summer Chinook 5 Total # of fish returning to the mouth of the Columbia River 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Forecast: 63, Return: 68, Forecast: 67,
28 Columbia River Sockeye 6 Total # of fish returning to the mouth of the Columbia River 700, , , , , , , Forecast: 198,500/1, Return: 88,263/ Forecast: 99,
29 Upriver Summer Steelhead 7 Total # of fish returning to Bonneville Dam 700, , , , , , , Forecast: 130, Return: 116, Forecast: 190,
30 Wild Winter Steelhead 8 Total # of fish returning to the mouth of the Columbia River 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Forecast: 11, Return: 9, Forecast: 11,700
31 Total Fall Chinook 9 Total # of fish returning to the mouth of the Columbia River 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Forecast: 582,600 / 460,500 upriver 2017 Return: 475,900 / 391,300 upriver Upriver fish 2018 Forecast: 365,600 / 286,600 upriver
32 Columbia River Coho Returns 10 # of Fish Returning to Col. River 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , Forecast: 225, Return: 235, Forecast: 228,758 Total At BON 400, ,
33 Columbia River Chum 11 # of Fish Returning to Col. River 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Peak counts Population estimates 2018 Forecast 4,000 5,
34 12 TOTAL Return of Salmonids to the Columbia River 4,000, Return: ~1.2 million fish 2018 Forecast: ~1.1 million # of Fish Returning to Col. River 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Chinook Coho Sockeye Steelhead
35 13 UPRIVER Salmonids Returning to the Columbia River 3,000, Return: 856 k fish 2018 Forecast: 904 k fish # of Fish Returning to Col. River 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Chinook Coho Sockeye Steelhead
36 2017 Fisheries Conservation 14 Summer Steelhead return was the lowest in the last 25 years Co-managers worked together to reduce recreational impact to steelhead There was heighten concerned for Snake River B-run that return primarily to the Clearwater and Salmon Drainges in Idaho Columbia (OR & WA) and Snake (WA) Rolling closures in mainstem Columbia Aug Dec to protect B runs Hatchery limit reduced from 2+ in a normal year to 1 WA & OR closed tributaries to steelhead angling or limited angling to C&R Snake River C&R until mid-oct. and 1 hatchery steelhead < 28 No fishing in Upper Columbia
37 2017 Non-Indian Sport Fisheries 15 Spring Chinook Below Bonneville: 126,800 angler trips 12,700 hatchery fish kept Bonneville to WA/OR border: 1,400 hatchery fish kept Snake River (WA waters): 1,300 hatchery fish kept Summer Season Below Bonneville: 58,100 angler trips 3,100 hatchery Chinook 4,300 hatchery steelhead 700 sockeye Bonneville - Priest Rapids: 100 hatchery Chinook 500 sockeye Priest Rapids Chief Joseph: 4,100 hatchery Chinook 5,500 sockeye Fall Season Buoy 10: 95,000 angler trips 17,800 Chinook kept 9,200 hatchery coho kept Below Bonneville: 133,300 angler trips 25,100 Chinook kept 1,300 hatchery coho kept 1,900 hatchery steelhead kept Hanford Reach: 44,100 angler trips 16,900 Chinook kept
38 2017 Non-Indian Commercial 16 Fisheries MAINSTEM FISHERIES Spring Season 3,300 hatchery Chinook 6 periods (65 hrs total) Summer Season 3,000 Chinook/ 400 sockeye 2 periods (16 hrs total) Fall Season 58,900 Chinook 1,100 Coho includes seine fishery: 1,000 Chinook and 500 Coho SELECT AREA FISHERIES (SAFE) Spring Season 7,300 Chinook Summer Season 1,800 Chinook Fall Season 12,400 Fall Chinook 34,700 Coho
39 2017 Treaty Indian Fisheries 17 Landed fish are either kept for ceremonial & subsistence (C&S) purposes, or sold commercially. Spring Chinook 5,200 fish Summer Chinook 18,600 fish Sockeye 12,800 fish Summer Steelhead 2,700 in spring/summer 10,800 in fall 13,500 TOTAL Fall Chinook 134,100 Coho 5,100
40 18 Questions?
41 Impact of Recent Observations on Salmon Returns Northwest Power and Conservation Council March 14 th, 2017 Brian Burke NOAA Fisheries, NWFSC Supported by:
42 Field Sampling Juvenile Salmon & Ocean Ecosystem Survey (JSOES): May ( , present) June (1998 present) September ( , 2015) Newport Line Biweekly (1996-present) Micronekton Survey, 30 m June (2011, present)
43 Pacific Basin-Scale Dynamics September 2014 The blob El Niño La Niña (x2) September 2015 September 2017
44 Biological Response
45 Extremely Low Salmon Abundance 7 6 June Yearling Salmon Catches Chinook salmon Coho salmon Number per km towed
46 Basin-scale physical indices Regional physical indices Regional biological indices
47 Regression Analysis yy = aa + bb JJJJJJJJJJ + εε
48 Regression Analysis yy = aa + bb JJJJJJJJJJ + cc OOOOOOOOOO + εε
49 Chinook at Bonneville Dam Dynamic Linear Models Sibling Regression and the first Principal Component of the stoplight chart Spring Chinook March 15 May 31 Outlook for 2018: 96K (55-168) Outlook for 2019: 109K (52 230) (no jack information) Return data from Columbia Basin Research, DART
50 Chinook at Bonneville Dam Dynamic Linear Models Sibling Regression and the first Principal Component of the stoplight chart Fall Chinook Aug 1 Nov 15 Outlook for 2018: 292K ( ) Outlook for 2019: 327K ( ) Return data from Columbia Basin Research, DART
51 Coho at Bonneville Dam Dynamic Linear Models First Principal Component of the stoplight chart Coho OPIH Outlook for 2018: 1.9% ( ) Return data from Columbia Basin Research, DART
52 Stock-specific Charts: Interior Spring Chinook Year Indicators PDO (winter) PDO (spring) PDO (summer) NPGO (fall) ONI (spring) SST (WA, spring) SST (WA, summer) SST (coastwide, spring) SST (coastwide, winter) Ichthyo. Biomass S. Cop. Biomass Biological Trans Example use: Snake River Sp/Su Chinook Life Cycle Modeling
53 Conclusions Blob and El Niño are gone, La Niña diminishing The ocean ecosystem (biology) changed significantly, and is still changing Expected returns in 2018: similar to 2017 (well below 10 year mean for Chinook)
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FISH PASSAGE CENTER 1827 NE 44 th Ave., Suite 240, Portland, OR 97213 Phone: (503) 230-4099 Fax: (503) 230-7559 http://www.fpc.org/ e-mail us at fpcstaff@fpc.org MEMORANDUM TO: Rob Lothrop, CRITFC FROM: