ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018
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1 ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018
2 Orlando MSA Market Overview Labor Market Payroll Employment Commercial Real Estate Residential Real Estate Consumer Spending Visitor Industry
3 Labor Market Labor Force, Orlando MSA Seasonally Adjusted 1,400,000 Employed Unemployed 1,300,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000, , ,000 February 2018 (NSA, 12-Month Change) Labor Force: 1,340,019 (+43,426) Employed: 1,293,745 (+54,557) Unemployed: 46,274 (-11,131) 700, Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS Seasonally Adjusted
4 Labor Market 12 Unemployment Rate, Orlando MSA Seasonally Adjusted RECESSION 10 Orlando MSA United States February 2018 (NSA) United States: 4.4% Florida: 3.8% Orlando MSA: 3.4% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5 Labor Market 12,000 New Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Orlando MSA 12-Month Moving Average 10, YTD (through March) 8,265 (-152) 8,000 6,000 RECESSION 4,000 2, Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
6 Labor Market $900 Average Weekly Hours & Earnings, Orlando MSA 12-Month Moving Average 40 $ MMA Weekly Earnings (left axis) 12 MMA Weekly Hours (right axis) $ $750 March 2018 (NSA, 12-Month Change) Hours: 35.2 (0.86%) Earnings: $ (3.66%) 32 $ Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
7 Payroll Employment Hundreds 1,300 1,250 1,200 Total, Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Orlando MSA Seasonally Adjusted Nov 07 Jan ,700 jobs lost RECESSION Jan 10 - Present 301,200 jobs regained HURRICANE IRMA 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, March 2018 (12-Month Change) 1,284,700 (+42,000) Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Payroll Employment 8% Change in Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Orlando MSA Y/Y % Change, Seasonally Adjusted RECESSION HURRICANE IRMA 4% 0% March 2018 United States: 1.5% Orlando MSA: 3.6% -4% Orlando MSA United States -8% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9 Payroll Employment % Change in Payroll Employment, MSAs > 1 Million Jobs March 2017 March 2018, Not Seasonally Adjusted Rank MSA % Change 1 Austin, TX 3.60% 2 ORLANDO, FL 3.52% 3 Phoenix, AZ 3.24% 4 Riverside, CA 3.19% 5 Seattle, WA 3.05% 6 Charlotte, NC 2.98% 7 Dallas, TX 2.85% 8 San Jose, CA 2.73% 9 Denver, CO 2.50% 10 Tampa, FL 2.17% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10 Payroll Employment Thousands 80 Net Job Gain, Orlando MSA Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Labor Market Statistics Center
11 Payroll Employment Thousands % Liesure & Hosp % TOTAL NET GAIN: 42,100 Business Svcs % Education & Health Job Gains by Industry, Orlando MSA 12 Month Change March 2018, Not Seasonally Adjusted 4.5% 7.1% % 3.2% 3.2% % % % Finance Mfg. Retail Const. Other Svcs. Local Gov. Information Wholesale 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Net Job Gain (left axis) Y/Y % Change (right axis)
12 Payroll Employment IMPROVING 3% Employment Momentum by Florida MSA/MD February 2018, Seasonally Adjusted EXPANDING 2% 3-Month % Change South Florida Central Florida ORLANDO 1% West Palm Beach Miami Tampa Space Coast Gainesville Fort Lauderdale Deltona Lakeland Jacksonville 0% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% CONTRACTING SLIPPING -1% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Year-Over-Year % Change
13 Commercial Real Estate Office Market, Orlando MSA 20% Total Vacancy (left axis) Average Direct Asking Rate (FSG, right axis) $25 16% Q (12-Month Change) Vacancy: 7.1% (-0.4pp) Average Asking Rate: $21.50 (+$0.55) Net Absorption: 37,410 SF (-311,720 SF) Construction Deliveries: 62,436 SF YTD (-62,564 SF Q2 17) $23 12% $21 8% $19 4% $17 0% YTD $15 Source: CoStar; only includes existing office properties larger than 5,000 sq. ft.
14 Commercial Real Estate Industrial Market, Orlando MSA 20% Total Vacancy (left axis) Average Direct Asking Rate (NNN, right axis) $7 16% 12% Q (12-Month Change) Vacancy: 4.1% (-1.0pp) Average Asking Rate: $6.02 (+$0.24) Net Absorption: 763,540 SF (+407,470 SF) Construction Deliveries: 820,157 SF (-1,104,586 SF Q2 17) $6 8% $5 4% 0% YTD $4 Source: CoStar; only includes existing industrial properties larger than 10,000 sq. ft.
15 Residential Real Estate 60,000 Home Sales vs. Median Sales Price, Orlando MSA 2018 YTD (through March) Sales: 8,296 (+1.52%) Median Sales Price: $229,000 (+9.10%) $250,000 Sales (left axis) Median Sale Price (right axis) 50,000 $200,000 40,000 $150,000 30,000 $100,000 20,000 10,000 $50, YTD $0 (p) = preliminary Source: Orlando Regional Realtor Association
16 Residential Real Estate 35,000 Housing Permits, Orlando MSA Units Authorized 30,000 7,338 Single-Family Multi-Family 25,000 20,000 9,027 15,000 6,833 8,436 4,634 10,000 5, ,309 6,341 23,646 4,684 4,953 4,808 14,227 14,431 11,805 1,972 12,038 1,033 9,222 9, ,322 5,280 3,707 4,221 4,533 5, YTD (p) = preliminary Source: U.S. Census Bureau
17 Consumer Spending January 2000 = 100 Orlando MSA Retail Index January 2018 (12-Month Change) (+9.8%) Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research
18 Consumer Spending $Billions 70 Taxable Sales, Orlando MSA Autos & Accessories Consumer Durables Tourism & Recreation 2017 (Y/Y Percent Change) Autos: $9.2b (+4.3%) Durables: $2.9b (+3.5%) Tourism: $25.5b (+7.8%) Non-Durables: $16.2b (+2.2%) Building Investment: $3.1b (+9.6%) Business Investment: $9.8b (+6.8%) TOTAL: $66.6b (+5.6%) Consumer Non-Durables Building Investment Business Investment Source: Florida Legislature, Office of Economic & Demographic Research
19 Visitor Industry Total Passengers, Orlando International Airport Millions 45 Domestic International 2018 YTD Passengers, (YOY Change) Domestic: 10.2 M (+8.3%) International: 1.5 M (+13.3%) TOTAL: 11.7 M (+9.0%) Source: Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
20 Visitor Industry Hotel Occupancy vs. Average Daily Rate, Orlando MSA 100% $140 Hotel Occupancy (left axis) Average Daily Rate (right axis) 90% $130 $120 80% 81.3% 70% 60% 67.9% 65.8% 59.5% 63.9% 67.6% 68.8% 70.5% 73.7% 76.7% 75.5% 78.7% $110 $100 $90 50% YTD $80 Source: Visit Orlando
21 THANK YOU
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