Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook
|
|
|
- Martha Collins
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Sr. VP/Chief Economist, LAEDC February 17, 2016
2 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Conclusion/ Forecast Summary
3 U.S. Economy
4 Annual % Change GDP Low Steady Growth f 2017f Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC
5 U.S. Economy at a Glance Consumer Sector Business Sector Government International Trade Other Macro Indicators: Labor Market Inflation
6 Consumption Up With Income Growth 4 Annual % Change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
7 8% 7% Business Investment Spending Annual Percentage Change % 6% 5% 4% 5.0% 4.5% 3% 2.6% 2% 1% 0% -1% Total Equipment Intellectual Property Structures Source: IHS, LAEDC
8 f 2016f 2017f Budget Deficit Stable, Rising in Receipts Outlays 10 Source: Office of Management and Budget Source: Office of Management & Budget
9 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Dollar: Index vs Basket of Currencies Higher Dollar: Pricier Exports Less Expensive Imports/Foreign Travel Source: Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve via FRED
10 Global Economy Up Overall Annual % Growth f 2017f World Euro Area Developing Asia Latin America/Carb. Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, January 2016 Update Japan
11 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 U.S. At Full Employment 12% 10% Unemployment Rate U.S.: 4.9% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: US BLS, CA EDD
12 Wage & Salary Jobs Slower Growth % Change f 2017f Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC
13 U.S. Consumer Inflation Rising 4.5 Year-Year % Change in CPI-U f 2017f Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; forecasts by LAEDC
14 U.S. Forecast: What to Watch Kyser Center for for Economic Research
15 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Key Interest Rates 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Fed Funds Fixed Rate Mort 10-Year T-Bond Source: Federal Reserve
16 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan Plunging Oil Good or Bad? Dollars/barrel West TX Intermediate Source: US Energy Information Administration Source: US Energy Information Administration
17 First Significant Wage Gains in Years 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Annual % Change in Hourly Wage Annual Inflation Rate -1.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
18 Hot Button Issue: Household Income Median HH Income in Thousands of 2014 Dollars Source: Census Bureau
19 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Stock Market Volatility Up 19,000 Daily DJIA 18,500 18,000 17,500 17,000 16,500 16,000 Oct ,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 Source: Federal Reserve
20 China & U.S. Economy Exports to China as % of GDP: US: 0.96% CA: 1.10% Linkages & Ripple Effects Financial system: global integration Economic system: U.S. linkages limited Ripple effects
21 S. Korea Saudi Arabia European Union Mexico Canada China Australia Nigeria Japan (2013) USA Brazil Exports as % of GDP Selected Countries (2014) Source: World Bank
22 U.S. Forecast
23 U.S. FORECAST: Steady, Modest Growth Real GDP - Annual % Chg. Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg f 2017f 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% Unemployment Rate 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7% Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 1.6% 0.1% 2.0% 2.4% Forecast Source: LAEDC
24 California Economy
25 California Growth Outpacing U.S. 4% Annual % Change US GDP CA GSP 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% f 2017f Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS, forecasts by LAEDC
26 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 CA Unemployment Rate Falling Quickly 14% 12% Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted U.S.: 5.0% CA : 5.8% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: US BLS, CA EDD
27 4 3 % Change CA Job Gains Outpace U.S f 2017f Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecasts by LAEDC
28 Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted San Jose San Francisco Riverside-San Bernardino Fresno Orange San Diego Stockton Sacramento Modesto Los Angeles Oakland Ventura Bakersfield CALIFORNIA 2015: +470, % YTY 1.1% 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.7% 4.4% 5.4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
29 Long Term Job Trajectories Vary 200 CA SF OR LA RVSB Source: EDD, Compiled by LAEDC
30 California Economic Forecast f 2017f Nonfarm Jobs - annual % chg. 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 1.6% Unemployment Rate 7.0% 6.2% 5.5% 5.3% Personal Income - annual % chg. Total Taxable Sales - % chg. Housing Permits - thousands of units 4.7% 5.7% 4.7% 5.7% 4.9% 3.4% 5.5% 7.0% Forecast Source: LAEDC
31 Southern California Economy
32 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Local Unemployment Rates 20% Dec LA - 5.8% OC - 4.1% IE - 5.9% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
33 Major Industries in Southern California INCOME GENERATING International Trade Entertainment Tourism Business Services Aerospace Fashion & Apparel Knowledge Creation INCOME CIRCULATING Retail Sales Leisure & Hospitality Health Care/Social Assistance Personal Services Nonprofit Sector
34 Job Trends by Industry Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment by industry, not seasonally adjusted 2015 YTY: +94,700 jobs, +2.2% YTY; u-rate: 6.9% Construction Leisure & Hospitality Health Care & Social Assistance Wholesale Trade Educational Services Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Retail Trade Administrative & Support & Waste Services Government Financial Activities Information Manufacturing 0.0% -0.9% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.5% 5.9% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
35 Job Trends by Industry Orange County YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Educational Services Construction Transportation & Warehousing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Health Care & Social Assistance Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Nondurable Goods Leisure & Hospitality Durable Goods Government Wholesale Trade Administrative & Support & Waste Services Retail Trade Finance & Insurance Information 2015 YTY: +47,400 jobs, +3.2%; u-rate: 4.4% -1.2% 5.4% 4.5% 4.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 7.9% 11.9% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16%
36 Job Trends by Industry Riverside San Bernardino YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry Administrative & Support & Waste Services Transportation & Warehousing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Construction Wholesale Trade Educational Services Leisure & Hospitality Finance & Insurance Nondurable Goods Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Durable Goods Government Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade Information 2015 YTY: +48,400 jobs, +3.8%; u-rate: 6.5% -0.6% 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 7.8% 9.4% 7.4% 6.7% 6.1% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4% 4.2% 4.1% 3.6% -5% 0% 5% 10% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
37 Job Trends by Industry Ventura County YTY percent change in nonfarm employment by industry 2015 YTY: +5,000 jobs, +1.7%; u-rate: 5.5% Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 10.7% Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 5.4% Administrative & Support & Waste Services 3.3% Leisure & Hospitality 3.0% Construction 2.9% Information 2.7% Government 1.6% Wholesale Trade 1.5% Retail Trade 1.5% Educational & Health Services 0.3% Financial Activities -0.2% Manufacturing -2.6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
38 Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Millions of TEUs 2015 YTY: +1.3% Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC
39 Southern California Transportation and Warehousing Employment Thousands 300 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Dec YTY: +2.8% 2015 YTY: +4.2% 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
40 ,200 1,000 Southern California Professional & Thousands Business Services Employment Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Dec YTY: +2.3% 2015 YTY: +3.9% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
41 Thousands 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Southern California Education & Health Care Employment Los Angeles Inland Empire Ventura Orange San Diego Dec YTY: +3.0% 2015 YTY: +3.5% 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
42 ,200 1, Southern California Leisure & Hospitality Employment Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire San Diego County Ventura County Thousands Dec YTY: +4.2% 2015 YTY: +4.0% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
43 Southern California Retail Employment 1, Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura Thousands Dec YTY: +1.9% 2015 YTY: +1.5% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
44 Tourism: LA County Record High Day Visits Overnight Visits Source: L.A. Tourism and Convention Board
45 Motion Picture & Sound Recording Employment in Los Angeles County Thousands 2015 YTY: -0.5% Sources: CA EDD. LMID
46 Southern California Construction Employment Thousands Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire San Diego Ventura 200 thousand jobs Dec YTY: +9.4% 2015 YTY: +6.5% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
47 SoCal Manufacturing Employment 1,000, , , ,000 Durable Goods Nondurable Goods 2015 YTY % Chg. Durable: +0.7% Nondurable: +0.3% 600, , , , , ,000 0 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
48 Value of Manufacturing Output California Billions of Inflation Adjusted Dollars (2009 Base Year) Durable Goods Nondurable Goods Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Economics
49 Southern California Real Estate
50 Homeownership Stabilizing in CA 70 Percent, annual, not seasonally adjusted U.S. California Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
51 Median Prices Existing Single-Family Homes Source: California Association of REALTORS County Dec-14 Dec-15 YTY % Change Los Angeles $464,650 $502, % Orange County $683,490 $710, % San Bernardino $216,020 $234, % Riverside County $322,020 $348, % Ventura $569,600 $601, % San Diego $494,500 $548, % California $453,270 $489, %
52 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1 12Q1 13Q1 14Q1 15Q1 Apartment Rents Southern California $2,200 LA OC RV SB VN $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 Source: CA Real Estate Research Council
53 Housing Demand Depends On: Drivers: Job and income growth Net increases in wealth Demographics Expected increases in mortgage rates Constraints Down payment sources Rising mortgage rates Strict underwriting requirements
54 Millennial Population by Age ~11 Million Millennials in State of California 100% 75% 50% 25% % Source: CA Department of Finance
55 California Household Formation Annual change number of households, thousands 200 New HH Formations Average since Source: IHS Global Insight
56 Apr-71 Feb-73 Dec-74 Oct-76 Aug-78 Jun-80 Apr-82 Feb-84 Dec-85 Oct-87 Aug-89 Jun-91 Apr-93 Feb-95 Dec-96 Oct-98 Aug-00 Jun-02 Apr-04 Feb-06 Dec-07 Oct-09 Aug-11 Jun-13 Apr Percentage Mortgage Interest Rates 30-year Fixed Rate, Conventional Mortgage Source: Federal Reserve
57 Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County Permits issued, thousands Multi-Family Single-Family '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16f '17f Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC
58 18 16 Residential Building Permits Issued in Orange County Permits issued, thousands Multi-Family Single-Family '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16f '17f Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC
59 Residential Building Permits Issued in the Inland Empire Permits issued, thousands Multi-Family Single-Family '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16f '17f Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC
60 Office Vacancy Rates Declining 30 Percent vacant, quarterly averages q07 1q08 3q08 1q09 3q09 1q10 3q10 1q11 3q11 1q12 3q12 1q13 3q13 1q14 3q14 1q15 3q15 Source: Cushman and Wakefield Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura
61 Industrial Vacancy Rates Very Low 16 Percent vacant, quarterly averages q07 1q08 3q08 1q09 3q09 1q10 3q10 1q11 3q11 1q12 3q12 1q13 3q13 1q14 3q14 1q15 3q15 Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura Source: Cushman and Wakefield
62 2016 Southern California Forecast
63 L.A. 5-County Employment Growth, 2016 Total nonfarm job growth forecast for 2016 (thousands): jobs Health Care & Social Asst Prof, Sci & Tech Srvs Admin. & Support Srvs Retail Trade Leisure & Hospitality Government Construction Transport. & Utilities Wholesale Trade Educational Services Mgmt. of Enterprises Information Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Other Services Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division, forecast by LAEDC
64 2016 Top Five Industries by Percentage Gains in Employment Rank Los Angeles Orange Inland Empire Ventura 1 Prof, Sci, Tech Prof, Sci, Tech Prof, Sci, Tech Admin & Supp 2 Admin & Supp Education Admin & Supp Health Care 3 Health Care Health Care Construction Prof, Sci, Tech 4 Education Admin & Supp Mgmt. of Co's Education 5 Construction Construction Trans & Utilities Real Estate Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
65 Conclusion Cruise Speed Growth: US, CA, & So Cal Income Gains and Growth in Spending California Outpacing US Real Estate/Construction Outlook Good Job Gains in Most Local Industries
66 Southern California Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Thank You!
2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014
2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist,, LAEDC October 8, 2014 Outline U.S. Economy California Economy Southern California Economy & Industries Five-Year Outlook
Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015
Analysis. Answers Riverside Rising Economic Outlook for the Region April 2015 Beacon Economics, LLC California fact versus fiction Looking back a few years (2009 / 2010) everyone was saying that CA would
National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference
National and Regional Economic Outlook Central Southern CAA Conference Dr. Mira Farka & Dr. Adrian R. Fleissig California State University, Fullerton April 13, 2011 The Painfully Slow Recovery The Painfully
School of Business. Economic Outlook and Forecast. Beyond the Headlines
Beyond the Headlines Economic Outlook and Forecast San Bernardino County Superintendent of Schools: Chief Officials September 30, 2016 Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Economist/Director of Research, UCR Forecast
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts
Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Boulder Economic Forecast Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January 17, 2018 Real GDP Growth
U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business
U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks Presented by the Business Research Division Leeds School of Business University of Colorado at Boulder U.S. Economic
Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley
Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley Economic & Commercial Real Estate Outlook Kevin Thorpe, Chief Economist 2012 Another Year Of Modest Improvement 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1
Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast
Inland Empire International Trade Economic Forecast Mira Farka Adrian Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland Empire Regional SBDC Network California State University,
Current Hawaii Economic Conditions. Eugene Tian
Current Hawaii Economic Conditions Eugene Tian Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism At the PATA/TTRA 2016 Annual Outlook & Economic Forecast Forum February 3, 2016 Positive Signs in the
2009 California & Bay Area Real Estate Market Outlook
2009 California & Bay Area Real Estate Market Outlook November 24, 2008 Fairmont Hotel Leslie Appleton-Young C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist California Real Estate Market: 2008 California s Housing
President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economics
The U.S. Economic Outlook Chartspresented by WilliamC Dudley Charts presented by William C. Dudley President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of New York Washington and Lee University H.
Economic Update and Outlook
Economic Update and Outlook NAIOP Vancouver Chapter November 15, 2012 Helmut Pastrick Chief Economist Central 1 Credit Union Outline: Global, U.S., and Canadian economic conditions Canada economic and
The Erie Economy: Performance, Opportunities, and Challenges
The Erie Economy: Performance, Opportunities, and Challenges Eggs n Issues Manufacturer and Business Association December 2015 Dr. Kenneth Louie The Economic Research Institute of Erie Sam and Irene Black
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services
The U.S. Economy How Serious A Downturn? Nigel Gault Group Managing Director North American Macroeconomic Services Growth Is Cooling; But a Soft Landing Is Likely (Real GDP, annualized rate of growth)
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH. Southern California Regional Economic Forecast
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY LONG BEACH Southern California Regional Economic Forecast Lisa M. Grobar, Ph.D. Director, CSULB Economic Forecast Project Office of Economic Research 2009: A terrible year for
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
Zions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Intermountain Credit Education League May 10, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around
Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu
Texas Uncertain Economy in a World of Uncertain Oil Prices Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist recenter.tamu.edu National Economic Recovery still Going 2 U.S. Outlook Expected GDP growth still modest:
WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)
AUGUST 2018 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 Labor Force Employment 1,152,626 1,116,938 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 2016 to 2017: 35957 (3.1%)
Economic Outlook March Economic Policy Division
Economic Outlook March 212 Economic Policy Division Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 2 1 1 - -1 197 197 198 198 199 199 2 2 21 U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 197 to Q4 211 Real
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
Real Estate: Investing for the Future. Sponsored By:
Real Estate: Investing for the Future Sponsored By: Percent Change, Year Ago 6 5 4 3 2 1 Real GDP Growth United States, 2000 Prices 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 U.S. Employment
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies
The Changing Global Economy Impacts on Seaports and Trade Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist, PAGI Group, JLL (Port, Airport & Global Infrastructure) Agenda Where are we in the cycle? What are the barriers
Economic and Real Estate Outlook
Economic and Real Estate Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS October 13, 2016 1990 1991 1992 1993
U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook. July 15, 2014
2014 U.S. Economic and Apartment Market Overview and Outlook July 15, 2014 U.S. Economic Overview U.S. GDP Growth Persistent Despite 1Q Polar Vortex Annualized Quarterly Percent Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014
Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast May 13, 2014 Outline for Today Myths and Realities of this Recovery Positive Economic Signs Negative Economic Signs Outlook for 2014 The Employment Picture
Zions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Veteran Owned Business Conference May 11, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction
Economy On The Rebound
Economy On The Rebound Robert Johnson Associate Director of Economic Analysis November 17, 2009 robert.johnson@morningstar.com (312) 696-6103 2009, Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Executive
Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017
Economic Overview Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017 TTX Overview TTX functions as the industry s railcar cooperative, operating under pooling authority granted by the Surface Transportation
2007 Real Estate Market Forecast. October 18, 2006 Leslie Appleton-Young C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist
2007 Real Estate Market Forecast October 18, 2006 Leslie Appleton-Young C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Overview California Real Estate Market What happened in 2006? Tipping Points/Market Psychology
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations. Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends. September 10, 2013
Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends September 10, 2013 The Freight Economy Washington continues to be a headwind on economic
MAINTAINING MOMENTUM:
MAINTAINING MOMENTUM: 2018 National Economic Update September 12, 2018 noun mo men tum \ mō-ˈmen-təm, mə- \ 1 b : the strength or force that allows something to continue or to grow stronger or faster as
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum
The Global Economy: Sustaining Momentum David J. Stockton Senior Fellow Peterson Institute for International Economics Chief Economist Monetary Policy Analytics October 5, 2017 What s Driving the Global
What you should know, higher prices trade tensions, and the expanding economy September 11, 2018 Mark Schniepp Director
The 2018 Economy What you should know, higher prices trade tensions, and the expanding economy September 11, 2018 Mark Schniepp Director 1 The annual update Why are you here? (1) I m here for the update
WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)
AUGUST 2016 WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS) 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 Labor Force Employment June 2015 to June 2016: 36,504
Briefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy
Briefing on the State of the State presented to the SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy Rae D. Rosen Assistant Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of New York November 16, 2006 Key Points: Economic
Frederick Ross. Real Estate Market Overview. Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President. Frederick Ross. Company.
Frederick Ross Real Estate Market Overview Presented by: Kevin Thomas Senior Vice President Frederick Ross Company January 2003 Business Consumers Source: BEA, Ross Research Housing...Bust or Rust? 2001
Market Insights. June 30, 2018
June 30, 2018 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.3%
From Recession to Recovery
From Recession to Recovery Monday, April 26, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator Michael Klowden, President and CEO, Milken Institute Speakers Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, Pacific
Market Insights. March 29, 2019
March 29, 2019 Economic Overview 2 Global & Regional Growth Forecasts IMF GDP Forecasts (% change YoY) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Advanced Economies 1.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3%
International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports
International Trade Economic Forecasts An Overview of Orange County and Southern California Exports Mira Farka Adrian R. Fleissig Institute for Economic and Environmental Studies Orange County / Inland
A comment on recent events, and...
A comment on recent events, and... where we are in the current economic cycle November 15, 2016 Mark Schniepp Director Likely Trump Policies $4 to $5 Trillion in tax cuts over 10 years to corporations,
Zions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Kenworth National Dealers Conference November 8, 2018 1 National Economic Conditions 2 Volatility Returns to the Stock Market 27,000 Dow Jones Industrial Average October 10,
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Presented to: Maquiladora Industry Outlook Conference September 29 2006 Presented by: Patrick Newport Principal, U.S. Macroeconomic Service 781-301-9125 patrick.newport@globalinsight.com
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum. Canada leading the pack
Global economy maintaining solid growth momentum Canada leading the pack Dawn Desjardins (Deputy Chief Economist) (416) 974-6919 dawn.desjardins@rbc.com September 2017 Brighter global outlook gains traction
Houston and Tomball Economic and. Housing Outlook. recenter.tamu.edu. Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist
Houston and Tomball Economic and Dr. James P. Gaines Research Economist Housing Outlook recenter.tamu.edu THE CURRENT SITUATION The Future Just Ain t What It Used to Be! Yogi Berra National Economic Recovery
Transitions: 2019 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver February 6, 2019
Transitions: 2019 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver February 6, 2019 Prepared by: Can Stock Photo / jkirsh In Partnership with: Consumer Changes and Influences Slowing population growth Aging of the population
MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE. Matthew Marsh September 2016
MARKET AND CAPACITY UPDATE Matthew Marsh September 2016 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
The US Economic Outlook
IHS ECONOMICS US Outlook The US Economic Outlook November 2014 ihs.com Rafael Amiel, Director latin America Economics +1 215 789 7405, rafael.amiel.ihs.com 2014 IHS The US economy is gaining momentum Growth
Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services
Will 2016 Be the Last Hurrah for Commercial Real Estate? Presented By: John Chang First Vice-President Marcus & Millichap Research Services Rising Uncertainty Creating Headwinds for Commercial Real Estate
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook
MBA Economic and Mortgage Finance Outlook MBA of Alabama Annual Conference June 7, 2017 Presented by Lynn Fisher Mortgage Bankers Association 1 Summary of the MBA Outlook 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP Growth
Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office
Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the author and do not necessarily
Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder
Dr. Richard Wobbekind Executive Director, Business Research Division and Senior Associate Dean for Academic Programs University of Colorado Boulder Member FDIC VectraBank.com Economic Outlook 2015 Richard
Economic Update and Outlook
The Building Industry Association Of Okaloosa-Walton Counties Economic Update and Outlook Rick Harper, PhD February 1, 2018 The Economic Outlook 3rd longest postwar expansion for U.S., marked 103 months
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States?
Canadian Teleconference: Can the Canadian Economy Survive the Turmoil in the United States? Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist Dale Orr Canadian Macroeconomic Services Copyright 2008 Global Insight, Inc.
State of the City of Carpinteria
April 21, 2017 Mark Schniepp Director State of the City of Carpinteria jobs 1,000 Employment in Information / Carpinteria Valley 2006 -- 2016 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 ConstructiveDIVE.com
U.S. Overview. Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013
U.S. Overview Gathering Steam? Tuesday, October 1, 2013 Uneven global economic recovery Annual real GDP growth projections (%) Projections 2013 2014 World 3.1 3.1 3.8 United States 2.2 1.7 2.7 Euro Area
SA economic review Kevin Lings. August 2018
SA economic review Kevin Lings August 2018 South Africa real GDP growth year-on-year %y/y 8 7 6 5 Ave 4.3% 4 Ave 2.5% 3 2 Ave 0.9% 1 0-1 -2-3 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2
colorado.edu/business/brd
colorado.edu/business/brd Big Changes, Unknown Impacts Southwest Business Forum Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations January
2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and
2018 Economic Outlook Forum Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies Institute VP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Towson University November 29, 2018 $19,000
State of American Trucking
State of American Trucking October 11, 2018 Rod Suarez Economic Analyst American Trucking Associations rsuarez@trucking.org Business Cycles U.S. Expansions Duration October 1949 - July 1953 May 1954 -
Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1
WYOMING DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC TREND LCCC LIFE Program April 7, 2012 Cheyenne, Wyoming Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist Economic Analysis Division Stateof Wyoming Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming
Economic & Financial Market Outlook
Economic & Financial Market Outlook BC Pension Forum March 1, 2013 Chris Lawless, Chief Economist Overview Global forces Recent economic performance ~ US, Europe, Japan, China ~ Other emerging markets
Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities. Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013
1 Future Global Trade Trends - Risks & Opportunities Pulse of the Ports: Peak Season Forecast March 21, 2013 June 2012 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Economist Summary Higher economic growth in 2013, possible
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review
The World and U.S. Economy and San Pedro Bay Container Trade Outlook Forecast Review Michael Keenan Harbor Planning and Economic Analyst Port of Los Angeles October 5, 2009 Review of 2007 Container Trade
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?
More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different? C2ER Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Chief Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations June 14, 2017 Real GDP
Zions Bank Municipal Conference Economic Overview August 13, 2015
Zions Bank Municipal Conference Economic Overview August 13, 2015 Overview National Economic Conditions Utah Economic Conditions Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country Percent
The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six years of steady growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half Full
The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies. Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight
The United States: Fiscal Facts and Fantasies Presented by: Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist IHS Global Insight Subdued Recovery: Tailwinds Battling Headwinds The U.S. Recovery: Tailwinds More sectors
THE MOST INFORMATIVE EVENT COVERING REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS
THE MOST INFORMATIVE EVENT COVERING REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS 2014 U.S. Economic, Capital Markets, and Retail Market Overview and Outlook Retail Trends 2014 U.S. Economic Overview and Outlook Total Employment
Zions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club June 28, 2018 Dow Tops 26,000 Up 48% Since 2016 Election Jan 26, 2018 26,616 Oct 30, 2016 17,888 Source: Wall Street Journal Dow Around Correction Territory
Outline. Overview of globalization. Global outlook for real economic activity & inflation. Risks to the outlook
2017 International Economic Outlook Everett Grant Research Economist Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas October 2017 The views expressed are those of the author and
Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee
Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee The U.S. economy has now enjoyed 7 years of economic growth since the Great Recession Real GDP grew by 1.2% in
The Economic Outlook. Economic Policy Division
The Economic Outlook Economic Policy Division Glass Half Full Six plus years of moderate growth Real GDP Outlook Percent Change, Annual Rate 10 5 0-5 -10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Glass Half
Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast. Strome College of Business
Old Dominion University 2017 Regional Economic Forecast January 25, 2017 Professor Vinod Agarwal Director, Economic Forecasting Project Strome College of Business www.odu.edu/forecasting The views expressed
Zions Bank Economic Overview
Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankruptcy Lawyers Forum March 20, 2018 National Economic Conditions When Good News is Bad News Is Good News?? Dow Tops 26,000 Up 44% Since 2016 Election Source: Wall
How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports
How Global Trade Is Driving Demand For Ports 17 April, 2018 Dr. Walter Kemmsies Chief Strategist JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure JLL Ports Airports and Global Infrastructure Capital Markets
ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018
ORLANDO MSA MARKET OVERVIEW LAST UPDATED: MAY 2018 Orlando MSA Market Overview Labor Market Payroll Employment Commercial Real Estate Residential Real Estate Consumer Spending Visitor Industry Labor Market
U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity New Orders for Durable Goods Billions
U.S. Economic Activity. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Economic Activity Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2019 Contents 1 Economic Activity 2 Wages and Prices 3 Financial Activity Economic Activity Economic Activity Index 160 Consumer Confidence and Sentiment
Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook. February 1, 2011
Shifting International Trade Routes A National Economic Outlook February 1, 2011 Today s Objectives Endeavor to provide a broad context for today s program by briefly touching on: Some good news Some not
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond
Reading the Tea Leaves: Investing for 2010 and Beyond Wednesday, April 28, 2010; 8:00 AM - 9:15 AM Moderator: Maria Bartiromo, Anchor, CNBC's Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo Speakers: Nick Calamos, President
Zions Bank Economic Overview. March 14, 2017
Zions Bank Economic Overview March 14, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Wall Street Journal 120.0 110.0 100.0
U.S. Property Market Outlook, 2013Q1. Jim Costello, Managing Director CBRE Americas Research Investment Research
U.S. Property Market Outlook, 2013Q1 Jim Costello, Managing Director CBRE Americas Research Investment Research CBRE Page 2 Outlook for the Real Side of the Economy Operationally, what do Research Teams
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE January 14, 2019 Scott Colbert, CFA Executive Vice President Director of Fixed Income & Chief Economist scott.colbert@commercebank.com GLOBAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
2008 Real Estate Market Forecast. October 10, 2007 Leslie Appleton-Young C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist
2008 Real Estate Market Forecast October 10, 2007 Leslie Appleton-Young C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Overview California Real Estate Market: 2007 Recap 2007 Forecast Sub-Prime, Credit Crunch
US Economic Activity
US Economic Activity GDP has been in positive territory for seven consecutive quarters, and the advance estimate shows the US economy grew at a 1.0% rate in the fourth quarter 2015. US Economic Activity
Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist Disclaimer Disclaimer: The statements in this presentation do not represent the official views of the
The U.S. Economic Outlook
The U.S. Economic Outlook Nigel Gault Chief U.S. Economist, IHS Global Insight FTA Revenue Estimation & Tax Research Conference Charleston, West Virginia October 17, 2011 What Has Happened to the Recovery?
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from http://peoplesguidetohouston.wordpress.com/category/uncategorized/
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS
The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS February 2019 Mississippi University Research Center Mississippi Institutions of Higher Learning Darrin Webb, State Economist dwebb@mississippi.edu (601)432-6556
Trade and Economic Trends
Trade and Economic Trends Marine Terminal Management Training Program Paul Bingham Managing Director, Global Commerce & Transportation IHS Global Insight Long Beach, CA September 21, 2009 The Global Recession
2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond. Keynote Presentation
2014 Economic Forecast: Boulder & Beyond Keynote Presentation Business Research Division Richard Wobbekind Executive Director Business Research Division & Senior Associate Dean Leeds School of Business
2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?
2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End? Advantage Bank Place cover image here Richard Wobbekind Senior Economist and Associate Dean for Business and Government Relations November 15 th, 2018
www.colorado.edu/leeds/brd CAREER ADVANCING DEGREES FROM LEEDS EVENING MBA PROGRAM FOR WORKING PROFESSIONALS #1 PART-TIME MBA Program in Colorado according to U.S. News & World Report Engage in a collaborative
Economic Growth in the Trump Economy
Economic Growth in the Trump Economy Presented to State Data Center Conference William F. Fox, Director November 18, 2016 GDP Grows, Though Slowly 10.0 8.0 Percentage Change, Previous Qtr, SAAR 6.0 4.0
Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association. April 12, 2017
Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association April 12, 2017 National Economic Conditions Dow 20,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source:
MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION
OXYGEN EVENTS CONFERENCE GALA PERFORMANCE 2017 MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES DURING THE NEXT RECESSION - THE CASE OF ROMANIA - Ph.D. Andrei RĂDULESCU Senior Economist, Banca Transilvania Researcher, Institute