Market Situation and Outlook Trämarknaden i Karlstad,
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1 Market Situation and Outlook Trämarknaden i Karlstad, Magnus Niklasson, Swedish Forest Industries Federation
2 Last years message: We were worried about China and Egypt and believed the US and European market was the key. We still have an overhang of softwood, which combined with the low season is impacting the markets. But the global balance seems to improve slowly At the moment we have a (mainly) redwood problem generated by saturated and weaker market in China and liquidity problems in Egypt combined with continued high Russian supply to those markets! Continued increase in USA-consumption and steady (but moderate) growth in Europe is the key to better times!
3 Only partly correct! We still have an overhang of softwood, which combined with the low season is impacting the markets. But the global balance seems to improve slowly At the moment we have a (mainly) redwood problem generated by saturated and weaker market in China and liquidity problems in Egypt combined with continued high Russian supply to those markets! Continued increase in USA-consumption and steady (but moderate) growth in Europe is the key to better times!
4 Chinese surprise! 2016 the global softwood trade will reach a record high level. Imports of Softwood to China, total. Tons per month, thousand
5 This year: Where are we going? Long term: Free trade in general? Expansive financial politics? More specifically and short term: Canada U.S. softwood trade? Short (and long) term: Currency development?
6 SEK per GBP SEK per USD 14,0 13,5 13,0 12,5 12,0 11,5 11,0 10,5 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6, SEK per EUR 10,0 9,9 9,8 9,7 9,6 9,5 9,4 9,3 9,2 9,1 9,0 8,9 8,8 8,7 SEK per CAD 7,25 7,00 6,75 6,50 6,25 6,00 5,75 5, Initial moves on the currency markets: USD up and Euro down SEK/EUR SEK/CAD SEK/USD SEK/GBP
7 Trends in Softwood Trade
8 The best performing import markets ? In Europe and globally.
9 TURKEY. Imports of softwood per month. Seasonally adjusted Russia Sweden Romania Bulgaria Ukraine Third place: Turkey Turkey showed good development up to 2015 About m3 in import increase Ukraine has taken it all m3 per month, thousand
10 Germany. Imports of softwood. Seasonally adjusted Austria Sweden Ukraine Russia Belarus Second place: Germany Germany has showed stable gains throughout the recovery Belarus and Russia increases, toghether bigger than Sweden thousand
11 Russia Latvia Finland Sweden First place: UK Sweden has almost one third of the total market. Imports of softwood to United Kingdom. Seasonally adjusted. m3 per month, thousand
12 USA. Imports of softwood per month. Seasonally adjusted. 22,5 20,0 17,5 15,0 12,5 10,0-2,5 7,5 5,0 2,5 0, Canada, höger Germany, vänster Sweden, vänster 2,2 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 Globally: U.S. wins USA has grown more than China Good prices in SEK List price (Random Lengths) SPF 2x4 Western std&btr i USD and SEK up to november m3 per month, thousand m3 per month, million USD / bdf SEK / bdf 0 0 USD / bdf SEK/1.000 bdf
13 Supply
14 Small production increase in Europe The increase in supply is believed to be lower than the increase in demand. Good for the balance! Milj. m Produktion 2015 Germany -2% +5% Prognos (EOS) 2016 Sweden +2% -1% (-2%) Finland -3% +2% (+6%) Austria +4% +1% 5 0 Europe (14 contries*) +0,1% +1,8% *Excl. Russia Tyskland Österrike Finland Sverige Källa: EOS oktober 2016
15 Finland: New situation after ten years with decreasing production. New pulp production demands pulpwood, which drives sawlog supply as well and thus softwood production. Similar situation in Sweden Finnish Demand of Roundwood New and confirmed Actual SW logs (actual/forecast) Pulpwood (actual/forecast) SW logs (old forecast, Metla 2008) Pulpwood (old forecast, Metla 2008)
16 Russian Exports of Softwood, total. Seasonally adjusted Russian production of softwood. Seasonally adjusted. (about 2/3 of the total production) 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1, Russian exports has increased heavily: Very competitive and today profitable. But how much can the production increase in the short and medium term? Availability of logs is the challenge! Change: jan-aug 16 / jan-aug 15: +18% Change: jan-aug 16 / jan-aug 15: +6% Mill. m3 per month. m3 per month, thousand *Russias total softwood production 2016 is estimated to about 33 million m3. Källa: SvanData Källa: Pyrabelisk
17 SEK / RUB 0,22 0,21 0,20 0,19 0,18 0,17 0,16 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,12 0,11 0, Russian Construction. Completed apartments How much can the Russian export increase? The Ruble has gained some strength again and the domestic market might have bottomed. Thus, the competitiveness is no longer increasing. SEK/RUB Index
18 Russian Exports to China Hardly continue with the same pace as during this first half year! Russian exports to China increased 2.8 million m 3 up to August, compared with 2015 (+48%). m3 per month, thousand
19 Swedish Main Markets
20 0,33 0,30 0,28 0,25 0,23 0,20 0,18 0,15 0,13 0, ,16 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,10 0,09 0,08 0,07 0,06 0,05 0,04 0, Sweden: The importance of MENA is decreasing and East Aisa increasing. Last year we believed the importance of Overseas markets to decrease somewhat Correct when it came to Africa and Middle East But the Strength in Chinese (and to some extent other Eastern Asian markets) were underestimated The MENA markets as share of total Swedish exports. East Asia as share of total Swedish exports. Källa: Skogsindustrierna
21 China: Limited domestic supply and policies on construction brings a huge potential The new Chinese policy brings a substantial potential in wood construction Prefabricated building in steel and wood preferred. Target to 2025 that prefabricated building has a 30% market share Wood building today 0,07% share. 1% would mean another 5 million m3 softwood per year. If this becomes real, it means an increase in import with up to 3 million m3 each year up to 2020!
22 The domestic market the best of all Swedish markets! Deliveries have increased with more than 1 million m 3 per year. Leveranser till Svenska marknaden. Säsongsjusterade värden. Kubikmeter per månad, tusental Källa: Skogsindustrierna
23 Swedish production down m3 this year. Mainly redwood in Southern and Northern Sweden, but also whitewood will probably decrease marginally. Swedish Production of Softwood m3 per month, thousand
24 Prices up, production down! Production and Prices: Unique developement Index m3 per month, thousand
25 Whitewood stocks low, redwood stocks normal and falling. 55 Redwood stocks in days of production 55 Whitewood stocks in days of porduction jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt years average Current stock 35 jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt nov dec jan feb mar apr maj jun jul aug sep okt years average Current stock
26 Clear price cycles with decreasing difference between highs and lows. Are we entering a less volatile market? Swedish Export Price Index. Up to sep
27 Log prices have been relatively stable despite weaker softwood market Index Timmerpris (leveransvirke, hela landet) Trävarupriser (EXPI)
28 Summary 2016 the market consumed the overhang of softwood. At the same time consumption increases steadily: Improved balance. Redwood markets are still a question mark, but the balance/stock situation much better than last year. Better starting point for 2017 than Some big questions Russian exports? Chinese consumption? Chinese supply? Scandinavian supply? The NA lumber trade dispute
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