Rotary Club of Pocatello Economic Overview. April 28, 2016

Transcription

1 Rotary Club of Pocatello Economic Overview April 28, 2016

2 Economic Headwinds National and international uncertainty Continued low energy prices Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Consumer spending and consumer confidence remain low

3 Uncertainty at the National and International Level

4 Payroll Change 000 s National Job Growth Improving Million Jobs Lost Million Jobs Recovered Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping % in Mar 3.0 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

6 Underemployment vs. Unemployment U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7 Long-Term Unemployment Remains High Million Persons 8.0 Unemployed for more than 27 weeks March 2016: 2.2 m Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and American Bankers Association

8 1950 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted Labor Force Participation Rate % 68 Among Lowest in Over 35 Years Mar % Apr % Mar % 58 56

9 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sept 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Consumer Confidence Lower than One Year Ago Above 110 indicates economic prosperity Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board

10 Percent Consumer Spending is Under Par Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

11 Expansion Outlook Still Below Normal 30% Next Three Months Good Time to Expand 20% 10% Average 0% Sources: National Federation of Independent Business and American Bankers Association

12 The Fed is Under Pressure Japan Central Banks with Negative Interest Rates European Central Bank Sweden Denmark Switzerland -0.10% -0.40% -0.50% -0.65% -0.75% Source: global-rates.com

13 USD Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 PARITY $1.05 $0.90 $0.80 Source: Investing.com

14 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 $ Per Barrel Oil Prices Are Down $ $ $108 $ $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $26 Sources: Pre-2016 data from U.S. Energy Information Administration; Post-2016 from Investing.com

15 2007 Source: Baker Hughes Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs ,200 Total U.S. Rig Count 2,000 1,800 1,931 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

16 Federal Funds Rate Forecast (March 2016) Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

17 Fed Funds Rate Longer Run Projections Average Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

18 This Uncertainty is Causing Disruptions to Many Communities

19 Thousands of Employees Wyoming Employment Still Not Fully Recovered from Recession Loss Gain of 5,000 jobs from low in Loss of 20,000 jobs from Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

20 WY Industries - Employment Gains Percent Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -20.8% Construction -7.1% Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. -2.0% -3.2% -2.6% -4.5% -0.5% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.6% Leisure & Hospitality -3.0% Other Services Government Total: -3.2% 0.0% 1.3% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally Adjusted

21 WY Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -5,400 Construction -1,700 Manufacturing -200 Trade, Trans., Utilities -1,800 Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv Ed. & Health Serv. 700 Leisure & Hospitality -1,100 Other Services Government Total: -9, ,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1, ,000 2,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally Adjusted

22 Wyoming Employment Change Rates By County March 2015 to March 2016 State Rate = -3.4% 5.0% or more 3.0% to 4.9% 1.0% to 2.9% Teton -0.1% Lincoln -1.0% Uinta -8.6% Park -0.8% Sublette -5.5% Fremont -2.0% Sweetwater -5.4% Big Horn -3.9% Washakie -2.0% Hot Springs -2.9% Sheridan -2.4% Campbell -6.7% Crook -2.8% Johnson -4.6% Weston -1.9% Natrona -8.5% Converse -4.2% Carbon 5.5% Albany 2.2% Platte -4.4% Niobrara -4.0% Goshen -0.9% Laramie -1.9% 0.0 to 0.9% Loss Source: Wyoming Department of Workforce Services Note: Not seasonally adjusted

23 Economic Tailwinds Strong population growth in the Intermountain West Idaho job growth the best in the country Unemployment low and dropping Construction activity on the rise Agriculture supports a strong state economy

24 Idaho Population 11 th Fastest Growing in U.S. CA 0.9% OR 1.5% WA 1.5% NV 1.9% ID 1.2% AK 0.2% UT 1.7% AZ 1.5% MT 0.9% WY 0.3% CO 1.9% NM 0.0% HI 0.8% Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8% ND 2.3% SD 0.6% NE 0.7% TX 1.8% KS 0.3% OK 0.8% MN 0.6% IA 0.5% MO 0.3% AR 0.4% WI 0.2% LA 0.5% IL -0.2% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.8% AL 0.3% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7% 0.0% to 0.2% Population Loss WV -0.3% VT -0.1% PA 0.1% NC 1.0% SC 1.4% GA 1.2% VA 0.7% FL 1.8% NH 0.2% NY 0.2% ME -0.1% DC 1.9% CT -0.1% DE 1.1% MD 0.5% MA 0.6% RI 0.1% NJ 0.2% Source: U.S Census Bureau

25 Total Population Idaho Population and Components of Change 1,800,000 1,654,930 60,000 1,600,000 50,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 9,097 10,925 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Components of Population Change 0-20,000 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

26 Idaho Population Growth Rates By County 2014 to 2015 State Average = 1.2% Boundary 3.1% Bonner 0.8% Kootenai 2.1% Benewah -0.3% Latah 0.5% Nez Perce 0.3% Lewis -0.9% Shoshone 0.3% Clearwater -0.2% Idaho 0.4% Increase of 3.0% or Greater Adams -0.1% Valley 3.0% Lemhi 0.1% Increase of 1.2% to 2.9% Increase of 0.5% to 1.1% Increase of 0.0% to 0.4% Population Loss Washington -0.2% Payette Gem 0.3% 0.5% Canyon 2.2% Ada 1.7% Owyhee 0.0% Boise 3.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Elmore -1.5% Camas 2.7% Gooding 1.1% Twin Falls 1.6% Custer -1.4% Blaine 0.7% Lincoln -0.1% Jerome 0.1% Cassia -0.1% Butte -4.2% Minidoka 0.8% Power -0.4% Clark 0.7% Jefferson 0.6% Bingham -0.5% Oneida 1.8% Bannock 0.3% Franklin 0.6% Fremont -0.4% Madison Teton 0.5% 2.5% Bonneville 1.4% Caribou -0.7% Bear Lake -0.6%

27 U.S. Generational Distribution by County Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

28 ID Generational Population By County As of July 1, 2014 Boundary Bonner Kootenai Benewah Shoshone Latah Clearwater Nez Perce Lewis Idaho Lemhi Baby Boomers (Ages 50-69) Adams Valley Generation X (Ages 30-49) Generation Y (Ages 15-29) Washington Payette Gem Canyon Ada Boise Elmore Camas Custer Blaine Butte Clark Jefferson Fremont Madison Teton Bonneville Generation Z (Ages 0-14) Gooding Lincoln Bingham Jerome Minidoka Power Bannock Caribou Owyhee Twin Falls Cassia Oneida Bear Lake Franklin Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

29 CA 2.6% OR 3.3% WA 3.2% NV 2.8% Idaho Employment Growth AK -0.5% ID 3.6% UT 3.3% AZ 3.1% Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 U.S. Rate = 2.0% MT 0.7% WY -3.2% HI 2.9% CO 2.8% NM 0.3% ND -4.5% SD 1.0% NE 1.6% KS 0.0% TX 1.6% OK -0.4% MN 1.1% IA 1.0% MO 0.9% AR 2.2% WI 1.8% LA -0.7% IL 1.3% MS 1.8% 3.0% or more MI 2.3% IN 1.3% TN 3.2% AL 1.2% OH 1.8% KY 2.0% GA 3.1% WV -0.7% VT 1.4% PA 1.4% NC 2.5% SC 2.7% VA 2.8% FL 2.9% 2.2% to 2.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 2.1% 0.0% to 0.9% NH 1.6% NY 1.4% ME 1.0% DC 1.3% CT 0.9% DE 2.6% MD 2.4% MA 1.8% RI 1.8% NJ 2.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Loss

30 Thousands of Employees Idaho Employment at New Highs 800 Gain of 93,000 jobs since low in Loss of 59,000 jobs from Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

31 Idaho Employment Gains and Losses Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -8.8% Total: 3.5% Construction Manufacturing 4.2% 3.6% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.7% Information 0.0% Financial Activity 2.4% Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. 3.9% 4.2% Leisure & Hospitality 8.3% Other Services Government 2.5% 3.5% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

32 Idaho Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -300 Total: 22,900 Construction 1,500 Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities 2,200 2,300 Information 0 Financial Activity 800 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3,100 Ed. & Health Serv. 4,100 Leisure & Hospitality 5,400 Other Services 800 Government 3,000-1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

33 Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Employment Idaho Employment Change Rates By County Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 State Rate = 2.3% 3.0% or more 2.3% to 2.9% 1.0% to 2.2% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Washington Boundary -1.8% Bonner 0.7% Kootenai 2.6% Benewah -0.6% Latah -1.6% Nez Perce 2.9% Lewis -2.2% Adams 1.0% Clearwater 0.0% Idaho -2.2% Valley 3.0% -1.9% Custer Clark 4.0% 0.6% Payette Gem 1.2% 2.5% Canyon 2.7% Ada 2.8% Owyhee 3.9% Shoshone 2.0% Boise 2.9% Elmore -5.0% Camas 0.8% Gooding 3.2% Twin Falls 3.3% Lemhi 0.3% Blaine 0.0% Lincoln -0.2% Jerome 3.5% Minidoka 2.5% Cassia 2.5% Butte 4.1% Power -0.4% Jefferson 4.1% Bingham 0.4% Oneida 4.2% Bannock 1.9% Fremont 3.2% Madison Teton 3.5% 0.8% Bonneville 4.6% Caribou -4.8% Bear Lake Franklin -0.2% -0.7%

34 Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment OR 4.5% CA 5.4% WA 5.8% NV 5.8% ID 3.8% UT 3.5% AZ 5.4% MT 4.3% Rates in the Country WY 5.2% CO 2.9% NM 6.2% March 2016 U.S. Rate = 5.0% ND 3.1% SD 2.5% NE 3.0% KS 3.9% OK 4.4% MN 3.7% IA 3.8% MO 4.2% AR 4.0% WI 4.5% IL 6.5% MS 6.3% MI 4.8% IN 5.0% TN 4.5% AL 6.2% OH 5.1% KY 5.6% GA 5.5% WV 6.5% VT 3.3% PA 4.9% NC 5.5% SC 5.7% VA 4.0% NH 2.6% NY 4.8% ME 3.4% DC 6.5% CT 5.7% DE 4.4% MD 4.7% MA 4.4% RI 5.4% NJ 4.4% AK 6.6% TX 4.3% LA 6.1% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 4.5% FL 4.9% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics HI 3.1% 4.6% to 4.9% (at or below the U.S. rate) 5.0% to 5.9% 6.0% or more

35 Idaho vs. U.S. Unemployment Rates U.S. Idaho Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

36 Idaho Unemployment Rates By County March 2016 State Rate = 3.8% Boundary 5.6% Bonner 6.1% Kootenai 4.7% Benewah 7.0% Latah 3.3% Nez Perce 3.4% Lewis 8.2% Shoshone 7.7% Clearwater 8.1% Idaho 5.9% 3.2% or lower Adams 9.9% Valley 5.9% Lemhi 3.1% 3.3% to 3.8% 3.9% to 5.5% 5.6% to 6.9% 7.0% or greater Washington 5.7% Clark Custer 2.3% 5.5% Payette 4.7% Canyon 4.3% Gem 4.8% Ada 3.3% Owyhee 4.8% Boise 5.8% Elmore 7.2% Camas 4.6% Gooding 3.4% Twin Falls 3.2% Blaine 3.5% Lincoln 5.0% Jerome 2.9% Cassia 3.0% Butte 3.9% Minidoka 3.1% Power 4.4% Jefferson 3.1% Bingham 3.6% Bannock 3.4% Oneida 4.1% Fremont 3.6% Madison Teton 2.6% 3.1% Bonneville 3.1% Caribou 4.0% Bear Lake Franklin 5.3% 4.4% Source: Idaho Department of Labor

37 Idaho Personal Income Growth Lower than Nation OR 5.8% CA 6.3% WA 4.7% NV 5.4% AK 3.8% ID 3.4% UT 5.5% AZ 4.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : U.S. = 4.4%; ID = 3.4% MT 4.4% WY 1.7% HI 4.6% CO 5.1% NM 3.7% ND -0.2% SD 0.0% NE 1.7% KS 2.5% TX 4.3% OK 2.3% MN 3.8% IA 0.6% MO 3.0% AR 3.9% WI 3.5% LA 3.4% IL 3.7% MI 4.3% IN 4.0% TN 4.8% MS 2.9% AL 4.1% 5.0% or more OH 3.1% KY 4.5% GA 5.3% WV 2.2% VT 3.0% PA 3.3% NC 4.8% SC 5.1% VA 4.3% FL 5.2% NH 4.2% NY 4.0% 4.4% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 3.0% to 4.3% 0.0% to 2.9% Decrease ME 3.2% DC 4.8% CT 3.1% DE 3.9% MD 4.1% MA 4.7% RI 3.7% NJ 4.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

38 Thousands U.S. Monthly Housing Starts New Housing Units by Permit Type 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Total Single Family Units Multi-Family Units Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted

39 Idaho Residential Construction Activity 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Single-Family Units Multifamily Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau

40 Millions ID Value of New $3,500 Residential Construction $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Single Family Units Multi Family Units Total Source: U.S. Census Bureau

41 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of U.S. GDP 2014 Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction 1.2% 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% Manufacturing 12.0% Wholesale Trade Retail Trade 6.0% 5.8% Transportation/Warehousing Information 2.9% 4.6% Financial Services 20.2% Professional & Business Services 12.0% Educational & Health Services 8.2% Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services 2.2% 3.8% Government 12.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

42 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of Idaho GDP 2014 Agriculture 7.0% Mining Utilities 1.5% 1.6% Construction 4.1% Manufacturing 12.7% Wholesale Trade 6.0% Retail Trade 7.8% Transportation/Warehousing Information 1.9% 2.9% Financial Services 17.8% Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services 8.4% 9.4% Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services 2.1% 3.3% Government 13.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

43 Contribution to US Agriculture Industry By State 2014 Contribution State 2014 Ranking 16.6% California 1 st 5.5% Texas 3 rd 3.7% Washington 7 th 2.1% Idaho 16 th 1.9% Oregon 19 th 1.6% Colorado 24 th 1.0% Arizona 31 st 1.0% New Mexico 32 nd 0.4% Utah 39 th 0.4% Wyoming 40 th 0.2% Nevada 45 th Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island

44 United States Nebraska South Dakota Iowa North Dakota Idaho Kansas Montana Arkansas Wyoming Minnesota Agriculture Real Value Added to State GDP $3, $3,286 $3,250 Top 10 States Per Capita 2014 $3, $2, $2,403 $2,173 $2, $1,728 $1,722 $1, $1,220 $1, $874 $849 $778 $ $422 $0.00 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island

45 Idaho Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold (In Thousands of Dollars) Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey Note: Total slightly higher than individual amounts shown due to information withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations

46 Millions of Dollars Idaho Net International Exports $7,000 $6,000 $5,899 $6,113 $5,784 $5,000 $4,704 $4,988 $5,150 $5,136 $4,000 $3,721 $3,880 $3,260 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

47 Millions of Dollars Idaho Exports: Top 5 Industries $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Computers & Electronics Food Chemicals Primary Metal Mfg Agricultural Products

48 Idaho Exports Sectors with Significant Changes: Commodity Share of Total 2004 Share of Total 2014 Change in Share Percent Change Food & Kindred Products Primary Metal Manufacturing Transportation Equipment 8.4% 15.1% 6.7% 217% 0.2% 5.8% 5.6% 4650% 1.4% 4.6% 3.1% 465% Wood Products 0.7% 3.5% 2.8% 768% Machinery 3.9% 2.5% -1.3% 16% Paper 4.6% 2.5% -2.1% -5.0% Computers & Electronics 65.5% 43.9% -21.6% 18% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

49 Idaho Economic Indicators Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Gross State Product e 2016f 2017f Source: Moody s Analytics e = estimate f = forecast

50 Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Phone: Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.