Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist. recenter.tamu.edu
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1 Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist recenter.tamu.edu
2 U.S. Outlook Uncertain impact of Tax Cut and Jobs Act Slow GDP growth new norm 8 years avg. 2.2%; 2017 ~2.3%; 2018 ~3% Interest rates likely to rise maybe! Inflation 2% - 2.5% Industrial production and manufacturing positive but little help on employment Housing improving, not fully recovered Jobs expand 1.5% - 2%; Unemployment rate ~4.0% 2
3 e 2018p Texas and U.S. Economic Growth Annual Percent Change in Real GDP 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% Texas US 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 5.1% 4.8% 4.9% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% -0.3% -0.6% -2.8% Sources: BEA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 3
4 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Thousands of Jobs, SA Monthly Change in Total Nonfarm Employment Six-month moving average ,000 Average of ~197,000 jobs per month since October 2010 Sources: BLS; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
5 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Inflation Remains Relatively Low 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items; Y/Y % change in index -3.0% Source: BLS 5
6 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Consumer Confidence Index Harvey hit Texas hard Texas U.S. Source: The Conference Board (1985=100); Haver Analytics 6
7 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Overall Index SA 1986 = 100) Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses; based on ten survey indicators
8 Interest Rate % Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Source: Federal Reserve Board; FHLMC; Haver Analytics; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 30-Year FMR and the Federal Funds Rate Upper Target Fed Funds Rate 30-YR FMR Impact on LT rates not as strong
9 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Expected Interest Rate on a 30-Year, Fixed-Rate Mortgage in Year FRM rate is projected to rise in 2018 by 25bp to 100bp with Fed increasing Fed Funds rate at least 75 bp Apr bp +50bp bp Source: FHLMC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 9
10 Texas Economy 2017 Recovery Year A Very Good Year 2018: Probably Better 10
11 Texas Economic Outlook: 2018 Better Than 2017 Employment: +2.5% - 3.0%; Energy & Manufacturing, Healthcare, Business & Professional Services; Leisure & Hospitality GDP: 4.1% 2018 from 3.6% 2017 Energy sector downturn mostly over; oil prices $55 - $60/bl.+ Population expansion continues but at slower pace Local Growth Issues becoming more pressing, causing greater strain on state and local resources and causing some cost impacts on local housing Rebound from Harvey will contribute to economic growth in 2018; impact on property values in affected counties & neighborhoods ongoing 11
12 e 2018p Texas Annual Jobs 14,000,000 13,000,000 12,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000, ,933,250 jobs; average 276,193/year; +2.5% 8,291,400 8,058,700 7,786,100 7,515,100 7,125,700 7,204,600 7,301,200 9,461,200 9,543,900 9,446,400 9,189,400 8,973,700 8,642,700 9,527,700 9,400,700 10,098,300 9,771,800 10,642,400 10,428,200 10,341,100 10,374,500 11,241,200 10,914,400 10,604, % +310, % +326, % +352, % +275, % +158, e +2.3% +306, P +2.8% +344,600 12,652,470 12,307,850 12,028,400 11,869,700 11,593,900 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 12
13 1/7/2000 3/31/2000 6/23/2000 9/15/ /8/2000 3/2/2001 5/25/2001 8/17/ /9/2001 2/1/2002 4/26/2002 7/19/ /11/2002 1/3/2003 3/28/2003 6/20/2003 9/12/ /5/2003 2/27/2004 5/21/2004 8/13/ /5/2004 1/28/2005 4/22/2005 7/15/ /7/ /30/2005 3/24/2006 6/16/2006 9/8/ /1/2006 2/23/2007 5/18/2007 8/10/ /2/2007 1/25/2008 4/18/2008 7/11/ /3/ /26/2008 3/20/2009 6/12/2009 9/4/ /25/2009 2/19/2010 5/14/2010 8/6/ /29/2010 1/21/2011 4/15/2011 7/8/2011 9/30/ /22/2011 3/16/2012 6/8/2012 8/31/ /21/2012 2/15/2013 5/10/2013 8/2/ /25/2013 1/17/2014 4/11/2014 7/3/2014 9/26/ /19/2014 3/13/2015 6/5/2015 8/28/ /20/2015 2/12/2016 5/6/2016 7/29/ /21/2016 1/13/2017 4/7/2017 6/30/2017 9/22/ /15/2017 3/9/2018 6/1/2018 Weekly Active Texas Rig Count & Price of WTI 1, Rig Count (left) Rig Count up 280, +162% since May /21/2014, 906 6/27/2014, $ WTI $/bl. (right) 2/12/2016, $ /20/2016, 173 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Source: Baker Hughes; EIA; RE Center at Texas A&M University 13
14 Austin Economy
15 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Austin Monthly Jobs 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000, , , , , , ,000 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 15
16 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Annual Employment Growth Rates US Austin Texas Source: BLS, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 16
17 Austin Annual Jobs 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , , , % % 2017 ~2.5% 461, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,900 1,025, , ,000 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 17
18 Austin Employment Change Industry December 2016 December 2017 Change % Change Total Nonfarm 1,018,800 1,048,800 30, % Wholesale Trade 49,300 54,000 4, % Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities 18,600 19,700 1, % Leisure and Hospitality 123, ,700 6, % Mining, Logging and Construction 60,300 63,300 3, % Education and Health Services 118, ,400 4, % Other Services 44,700 46,300 1, % Manufacturing 56,300 58,300 2, % Professional and Business Services 171, ,500 4, % Government 181, ,400 2, % Financial Activities 57,700 58, % Retail Trade 108, , % Information 28,900 28, % Sources: Texas Workforce Commission NSA; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
19 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Austin & Texas Business-Cycle Indexes Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 10/1980= Austin Texas Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 19
20 Austin Retail Sales $1,500 $2,500 $3,500 $4,500 $5,500 $6,500 $7,500 $8,500 $9,500 $10,500 $11,500 1Q1978 1Q1979 1Q1980 1Q1981 1Q1982 1Q1983 1Q1984 1Q1985 1Q1986 1Q1987 1Q1988 1Q1989 1Q1990 1Q1991 1Q1992 1Q1993 1Q1994 1Q1995 1Q1996 1Q1997 1Q1998 1Q1999 1Q2000 1Q2001 1Q2002 1Q2003 1Q2004 1Q2005 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015 1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018 Millions of Dollars 20
21 Texas Demographics 21
22 Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016 El Paso Hudspeth -2, ,000 1,001-20,000 20, , , ,469 Dallam Sherman OchiltreeLipscomb Hansford Hutchinson Hartley Moore RobertsHemphill Oldham Potter Carson Gray Wheeler Deaf Smith Randall DonleyCollingsworth Armstrong Parmer Castro Briscoe HallChildress Swisher Hardeman Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Wilbarger Motley Cottle Foard Wichita Clay Lamar Crosby King Knox Baylor Archer Cooke GraysonFannin Red River CochranHockley Dickens Montague Bowie Lubbock Delta Kent Jack Titus Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Haskell Young Wise Denton Collin Hunt Hopkins MorrisCass Stonewall Throckmorton Franklin Rockwall Rains Gaines Scurry Fisher Jones Parker Tarrant Dallas Wood Marion Upshur DawsonBorden Stephens Shackelford Palo Pinto KaufmanVan Zandt GreggHarrison Hood Smith Andrews Martin Eastland Johnson Mitchell Ellis Nolan Taylor Erath Panola Howard Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Navarro Hill Loving Glasscock Ector Comanche Winkler Midland Coke Bosque Shelby Sterling AndersonCherokee RunnelsColemanBrown Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Ward Mills McLennanLimestone Crane San AugustineSabine Reeves Upton Reagan Tom Green Coryell Irion Leon Houston Angelina Concho Falls San SabaLampasas Trinity McCulloch Bell RobertsonMadison Schleicher Burnet Polk Tyler Jeff Davis Pecos Menard Milam Walker Jasper Newton Crockett Mason Llano Williamson Brazos Grimes San Jacinto Sutton Kimble Burleson Hardin Gillespie Travis Lee Montgomery Terrell Blanco Washington Orange Presidio Liberty Edwards Kerr Hays Bastrop Waller Kendall Jefferson Val Verde Fayette Austin Harris Brewster Real Comal Caldwell Chambers Bandera Guadalupe Colorado Fort Bend Bexar Gonzales Kinney Uvalde Medina Lavaca Galveston Wharton Brazoria Wilson DeWitt Jackson Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Maverick Goliad McMullen Dimmit Bee Calhoun La Salle Live Oak Refugio Webb San Patricio Aransas Jim Wells Duval Nueces Kleberg Zapata Brooks Jim Hogg Kenedy 96 counties lost population over the 6 year period. Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates; Texas State Demographer s Office 22
23 Median Household Income, Texas counties, Dallam Hartley Oldham Hansford Lipscomb Sherman Ochiltree Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Potter Carson Gray Wheeler tl_2010_48_county10 MedHHInc15 $22, $35, $35, $45, $45, $55, $55, $65, $65, $89, tl_2010_48_county10 El Paso Hudspeth Randall Collingsworth Deaf Smith Armstrong Donley Swisher Parmer Hall Childress Castro Briscoe Hardeman Lamb Motley Cottle Floyd Wilbarger Bailey Hale Foard Wichita Montague Lubbock Dickens Grayson Cochran Clay Lamar Red Crosby King Knox Baylor Archer Cooke Fannin Hockley River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Delta Franklin Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Haskell Young Jack Wise Denton Collin Kent Hunt Hopkins Titus Cass Borden Shackelford Morris Palo Rockwall Rains Wood Gaines Dawson Scurry Fisher Jones Parker Stephens Tarrant Pinto Dallas Van Upshur Marion Howard Kaufman Harrison Nolan Hood Taylor Johnson Zandt Ellis Smith Eastland Gregg Andrews Martin Mitchell Erath Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Winkler Midland Sterling Coke Runnels Comanche Hill Navarro Cherokee Panola Loving Ector Bosque Anderson Shelby Glasscock Coleman Brown Hamilton McLennan Freestone Ward Nacogdoches Upton Culberson Crane Reagan Tom Concho Mills Coryell Irion Limestone Leon Houston San Augustine Reeves Green McCulloch San Lampasas Falls Angelina Sabine Saba Bell Robertson Trinity Schleicher Burnet Jasper Milam Pecos Menard Mason Madison Crockett Polk Jeff Davis Llano Brazos Walker Tyler Williamson Newton Sutton Kimble Blanco BurlesonGrimes San Jacinto Gillespie Travis Lee Washington Montgomery Hardin Terrell Presidio Kendall Hays Bastrop Orange Val Verde Edwards Kerr Waller Liberty Fayette Brewster Real Austin Harris Bandera Comal Caldwell Guadalupe Colorado Chambers Jefferson Kinney Uvalde Medina Bexar Gonzales Fort Bend Lavaca Galveston Wilson Wharton DeWitt Brazoria Maverick Karnes Jackson Zavala Frio Atascosa Matagorda Goliad Victoria La Calhoun Dimmit Live Refugio Salle Bee Oak McMullen San Aransas Jim Wells Patricio Webb Zapata Duval Nueces Kleberg Jim Brooks Hogg Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Year Sample; Texas State Demographer s Office 23
24 Alternative Projections Texas Population ,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 From 1970 to 2010 (40 years), Texas added 13.9 million people 54,369,297 47,386, Scenario Scenario 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 25,145,561 40,502,749 30,000,000 20,000,000 50% Scenario 20,000,000 10,000,000 From 2010 to 2050 (40 years), Texas will add between 22 and 30 million people 10,000, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer 2014 Projections ( Scenario) 24
25 Projected Legend Population Change, Texas tl_2010_48_county10 Counties, F6-6, ,000 2,001-10,000 10, , ,001-1,000,000 1,000,001-3,480,000 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections Migration Scenario 25
26 Austin MSA Population Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis & Williamson Counties 6,000,000 5,000, ,460,651; 202% increase 86,500/year average 5,176,940 4,000,000 3,960,317 3,000,000 3,035,547 2,306,857 2,000,000 1,716,289 1,249,763 1,000, , , Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer s Office 2014 Projection; Scenario 26
27 Williamson County Population 2,500,000 2,000, ,554,279; 368% increase 38,850/year average 1,976,958 1,500,000 1,380,749 1,000, , , , ,542 37, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer s Office 2014 Projection; Scenario 27
28 Hays County Population 900, , , ,000; 425% increase 16,675/year average increase 824, , , , , , , , , , ,000 27, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Demographer s Office 2014 Projection; Scenario 28
29 Housing Market 29
30 Macro Housing Issues 1. Demographics: generational life cycles; shifting tastes, preferences, attitudes & desires 2. Affordability: the main challenge for the next several years (decades?); income growth vs. price changes 3. Capital Flows & Lending Requirements: equity requirements; interest rates and monetary/fiscal policies 4. Infrastructure: transportation, education, utilities 5. Development: Design, Density, Resources and Processes 6. Regulatory: lending; environmental; land use controls Federal State Local
31 2018 Housing Market Mortgage Rates: Probably up ~0.5%+/- by year-end Household Formations: ~1.25 million+; millennial demand grows, but constrained by debt, income, prices, savings Sales volume slower but price growth Increased first-timers, millennials more active Prices pushed up from low inventory & high demand ~4.5% Rental Market: loosening, low vacancies from greater inventory, higher rents Single-family Rental: organized SF rental market with institutional owners competing with entry buyers Home Construction: possible slow down in volume; significant cost increases in labor, materials, land Affordability: prices and rents increasing faster than incomes definite constraint on market
32 p Annual Texas Home Sales 370, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 Since 2011 Sales + 58% Average Price + 42% Median Price + 52% 2018p sales +6-7% Prices +4% 126, , , , , , , , ,940 Sales Avg Price Md Price 209, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,375 $370,000 $350,000 $330,000 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 $70,000 $50,000 Source: TAR Data Relevance Program; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 32
33 e 2018p Texas SF Building Permits 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40, average 95,529/year 46,209 38, % % 2017e +10.4% 2018p +9% 59,543 69,964 70,452 70,421 83,132 82, , , ,782 99, , , , , , ,366 81,107 68,230 68,170 67,254 81, , , , ,511 93, ,636 20,000 0 Source: US Census Bureau; NAHB; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
34 e Texas SF Building Permits per 1,000 New Households 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1, , added 1.33 million HHs. Would have built 1.1 million SF homes at average/year; actually built 776k. About 315,000 units short. 1,339 1,191 1,550 2, average 820/year 1,242 1, Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M 34
35 e 2018p Texas MF Building Permits 80,000 70, average 45,444/year 69,995 67,319 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 32,237 34,684 35,720 43,794 56,918 44,716 32,620 42,409 43,081 44,431 39,796 38,427 53,894 58,542 49,897 32,260 56,406 56,644 59,342 56,854 55,149 20,000 10,000 8,962 10,298 9,514 15,545 17,375 21,504 0 Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
36 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Texas Residential Construction Leading and Coincident Indexes Jan 2000= Coincident Index Total Housing Permits (12-MMA) Leading Index Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 36
37 The Austin Housing Market 37
38 p Austin Annual Home Sales 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,068 7,4858,389 9,784 10,41811,291 12,40612,253 15,338 17,845 18,321 18,095 18,41419,469 22,193 26,448 29,767 27,571 22,068 20,999 20,407 19,547 25,209 33,907 32,711 31,435 29,97130,164 37,637 Source: ABOR; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
39 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Austin Months Inventory 8 7 Average since months Source: ABOR: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 39
40 Austin 2017 Sales and EoY Months Inventory by Price Sales 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,803 6,964 5,595 7,310 3,829 3, $0 - $69,999 $70,000 - $99,999 $100,000 - $149,999 $150,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $299,999 $300,000 - $399,999 $400,000 - $499,999 $500,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000 + MOI Source: BCS Regional Association of REALTORS ; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 40
41 p Austin Median Home Prices $330,000 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 $110,000 $90,000 $70,000 $50, %; %; % 2018p +5.5% 125, , , ,819 72,252 75,865 82,929 90,949 95, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,225 Source: ABOR; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 41
42 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Austin Monthly Median Home Price 12-Month Moving Average $325,000 $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 Average Annual Appreciation ~ 5% $125,000 $100,000 Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 42
43 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Austin Monthly Average Home Price per Square Foot for Resale Homes $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 Austin Md Price/sf Tx MdPr/sf Source: ABOR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University 43
44 Austin Sales by Price Distribution Percent Distribution Price Range $0 - $69, $70,000 - $99, % 35% $100,000 - $149, $150,000 - $199, $200,000 - $249, $250,000 - $299, $300,000 - $399, % $400,000 - $499, % $500,000 - $749, $750,000 - $999, $1,000, Source: ABOR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
45 Williamson Co. Annual Home Sales 12,000 11,500 11,000 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5, % +24% 7, % 6,297 10,542 10,247 9,576 9,682 +6% +3% +1% Current Months Inventory ,068 +5% Source: ABOR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
46 Williamson Co. Median Home Price $280,000 $270,000 $260,000 $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $172,270 $181,000 +5% % $221,000 $200, % +11% $241,000 +9% $257,500 +7% $273,500 +6% Source: ABOR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
47 Source: Four Rivers AoR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Hays Co. Annual Home Sales 5,000 4, % Current Months Inventory 2.9 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,798 2, % 2, % 3, % 3,230 +5% 3,391 +5% 3,560 +5% 1,
48 Source: Four Rivers AoR; TAR Data Relevance Project; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University Hays Co. Median Home Price $270,000 $260,000 $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210, % $205,874 $229, % $239,650 +5% $255,990 +7% $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $163,000 $178,000 +9% $192,700 +8% +7% $150,000
49 1Q2001 1Q2002 1Q2003 1Q2004 1Q2005 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015 1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018 Industrial Warehouse Rent Rates (Triple-Net Asking Rent Overall) $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 Austin DFW Houston San Antonio $ Source: CoStar and NAI REOC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
50 1Q2001 1Q2002 1Q2003 1Q2004 1Q2005 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015 1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018 Retail Rent Rates (Triple-Net Asking Rent Overall) $22.00 $20.00 Austin DFW Houston San Antonio $ $ $ $ $ Source: CoStar and NAI REOC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
51 1Q2001 1Q2002 1Q2003 1Q2004 1Q2005 1Q2006 1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012 1Q2013 1Q2014 1Q2015 1Q2016 1Q2017 1Q2018 Overall Office Rent Rates (Gross Asking Rates) $28.00 $26.00 Austin DFW Houston San Antonio $ $ $ $ $ $ Source: CoStar and NAI REOC; Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
52 Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist recenter.tamu.edu
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Dr. James P. Gaines Chief Economist. recenter.tamu.edu
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