The Texas Gulf Coast Overview and Outlook
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1 The Texas Gulf Coast Overview and Outlook Jesse Thompson Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Houston Branch 06/2018 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
2 Texas Gulf Coast 2
3 Texas Gulf Coast Three main factors are shaping the Texas Gulf Coast outlook Energy Industry Boom-Bust-Recovery Petrochemical Manufacturing & Construction Boom & Energy Exports Hurricane Harvey 3
4 Employment: Gulf Coast Metro Employment Plateaus in Oil Bust, Index, Dec.2014= Texas (ex. Gulf Coast) 106 U.S. (ex Texas) Texas Gulf Coast NOTE: Victoria data seasonally adjusted using x12. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed. Harvey: 13.8k jobs off Gulf Coast payrolls in Sept
5 Population: Gulf Coast growth slowed on domestic net migration in wake of oil bust. Thousands of People 200 Domestic Net Migration International Net Migration Natural Increase SOURCES: Census Bureau. 5
6 Unemployment: Harvey impact bigger in Beaumont and Corpus Christi. Labor markets are tight. Percent 9 8 Beaumont Corpus Christi Houston Victoria Texas SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7 Energy 7
8 Energy Survey: In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well? Dollars per barrel Permian (Midland) Permian (Delaware) Bakken $47 $49 $50 Permian (Other) SCOOP/ STACK Other U.S. (Shale) Other U.S. (Non-shale) $52 $53 $54 $ Number of responses NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses. 65 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 8
9 Energy Cycle: Texas Energy Recovery Continues Index, June 2014 = Thousands of jobs Selected mining-related jobs Crude oil price TX rig count NOTES: Rig count and nominal price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil indexed to June 2014 = SOURCES: Energy Information Administration; Baker Hughes; Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed
10 TX Oil Basins: Drilling activity up on higher prices. Rigs Permian Eagle Ford Rigs SOURCE: Baker Hughes 10
11 Manufacturing Construction & Trade 11
12 Real Energy Exports: Oil and gas exports surging amidst elevated Billions of dollars 7 6 Petroleum and coal products 5 4 Oil and gas 3 2 Chemicals NOTES: Data are for the Houston-Galveston and Port Arthur customs districts. Values are centered three-month moving-averages, adjusted to June 2014 dollars using NAICS export price indices. SOURCES: Census Bureau; Bureau of Labor Statistics. 12
13 Super-cycle of Chemical Investment Underway 139 announced projects valued at $71 billion. 65% of projects are foreign direct investment (or include a foreign partner). Second Wave of construction deliveries scheduled for Some Planning-stage projects (gray bars) may not get built. Announced Chemical Industry Investment in Texas Billions of Number of dollars Projects $16 30 $14 25 $12 $10 20 $8 15 $6 10 $4 $2 5 $ Complete Under Construction Planning Number of Projects NOTE: Data as of June 2018 SOURCE: American Chemistry Council NOTE: The data is based on publicly available information, which is believed to be accurate, but have not been independently verified by ACC. Source: American Chemistry Council analysis. 13
14 Super-cycle of Chemical Investment Underway Chemical Construction-related job boom past its peak. Number and Value of new project completions Peaked in Peak was blunted due to Hurricanes and project delays. Midstream and refinery construction projects will absorb some of the construction jobs lost over the next two years *As of 2018:Q2 SOURCE: American Chemistry Council Billions of dollars $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 Announced Chemical Industry Investment in Texas Number of Projects 30 $ Complete Under Construction Planning Number of Projects NOTE: The data is based on publicly available information, which is believed to be accurate, but have not been independently verified by ACC. Source: American Chemistry Council analysis
15 Hurricane Harvey 15
16 Hurricane Harvey: Impact smaller than expected, gowth well above Sept projections Thousands of jobs, SA 3,520 3,500 3,480 3,460 3,440 3,420 3,400 3,380 3,360 3,340 Baseline 9/4/17 $60 billion estimate of Harvey Damages (9/4/2017) Extrapolated from actual data Aug to May NOTE: Gulf Coast includes the Houston, Beaumont-Port Arthur, Victoria, and Corpus Christi MSAs. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; authors' calculations. 16
17 Construction Job Growth: Hurricane Harvey keeping construction job growth elevated. Percent Jan to Apr Apr to Apr Average since Total construction (7%) Specialty trade contractors (4%) NOTES: Numbers in parentheses represent share of total Houston employment. Shares are rounded. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed. 0.2 Construction of buildings (2%) Heavy & civil (2%) 17
18 The Texas Gulf Coast Overview and Outlook Jesse Thompson Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Houston Branch 6/2018 The views expressed in this presentation are strictly those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
19 TX Imports of Iron & Steel: Tariff applies to significant share of imports, correlated with recent well permits Billions of Dollars 1.8 Number of Well Permits Value of Imports Subject to Tarrif Texas Oil & Gas Well Permits Total Iron and Steel Imports (ex tariffed items) NOTES: Data are seasonally adjusted, three-month centered moving-averages. SOURCES: Census Bureau data accessed June 8th
20 OECD Stocks: Petroleum & Other Liquids Inventories Level Below 5-yr moving average. Millions of barrels, eop 3,200 3,100 3,000 April ,816 2,900 2,800 2,700 2,600 5-year moving-average average 2, NOTE: Dashed line is a forecast. SOURCE: Energy Information Administration. 20
21 Downstream Activity: Recovered from Harvey in a few weeks. Thousands of railcars Chemical railcar loadings Percent utilization Gulf Coast Refinery utilization rate -1 Landfall Weeks since hurricane landfall SOURCES: Association of American Railroads; Energy Information Administration. 21
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