The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch February 2017
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1 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch February 2017 Image from
2 Employment Index, Dec-2014= : Houston Plateaus 2016: Houston Loses a Few Jobs U.S. (ex Texas) Drilling activity collapses Texas (ex Houston) Houston Oil prices stop falling in Q1: SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, adjustments by the Dallas Fed. Metro Down 14K+ Jobs ytd in August
3 Employment Total Trade, transp & utilities (20%) rofessional & business svc (16%) Government (13%) Education & health services (13%) Leisure & hospitality (10%) Manufacturing (7%) Construction (7%) Financial activities (5%) Other services (4%) Mining & logging (3%) -8.3 Sept. to Dec. Dec.15 to Dec NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth by industry supersector. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed. 3.6
4 Real Retail Sales & Wages Billions of 2016:Q1 dollars 49 Real Wages Paid & Retail Sales Down From 2014 Retail Sales Billions of 2016:Q1 dollars Wages SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed. 24
5 Oil & Gas Extraction
6 Oil & Gas Extraction Index, June 2014= U.S. Rig Counts and Houston Employment 110 Thousands of jobs Mining-related jobs: Total 75,000 Jobs lost since Crude oil price U.S. rig count NOTE: Rig count and crude production seasonally adjusted. Rig count and nominal oil price indexed to June
7 Oil and Gas Jobs Percent Change 25 Selected Mining-Related Job Losses Slowing Fabricated metals Support activities for mining Total Architectural, engineering & related Extraction Agriculture, construction & mining machinery Note: data are three-month annualized percent changes. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor statistics; Seasonal and other adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
8 Survey: Need WTI~$50 to drill WTI: $53, ytd 2017
9 Oil & Gas Extraction Rigs Gas Basin Drilling Up Rigs Permian Drives Rig Recovery Marcellus Utica Haynesville Permian Eagle Ford Williston DJ-Niobrara W W May W W W W W W Oct W W W W W Apr W W May W W W W W W Oct W W W W W Apr-17 SOURCE: Baker Hughes
10 Inventories Million barrels 3,200 3,100 Total OECD Petroleum inventories projected to stay elevated Dec ,000 2,900 2,800 2, average 2,600 2, SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
11 Inventories U.S. crude inventories erode, product inventories surge Distillate fuel Crude (ex SPR) Gasoline Note: dashed lines are seasonally adjusted. Numbers are for week ending november 25th. SOURCE: EIA
12 Refining & Petrochemicals
13 Oil/Gas Ratio Refining & Petrochemicals Downstream advantage eroding? Brent Spread WTI/HH Dollar Spread
14 2009$ per barrel deviation from mean Refining Muse, Stancil & Co. East Coast Margins Muse, Stancil, and Co. Gulf Coast Margins WTI Crack Note: data are seasonally adjusted, centered three-month moving-averages. SOURCE: Muse, Stancil, & Co., Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
15 Billions of dollars 20 Downstream Advantage Downstream construction in Houston falls off in 2017 & Number of projects Value of projects delivered Number of projects delivered $55 Billion in capital Investments announced in Houston-area alone Note: Data are value of construction projects delivered. SOURCE: Baytown Economic Development Foundation. Institute for regional forecasting. 0
16 Punchline 2015 & 2016: Upstream Jobs Down Downstream-Related Jobs Up 2017: Upstream Jobs Up Downstream-Related Jobs Down Houston Region Job Growth Could be anemic into 2018
17 International Trade
18 Houston International Trade Index, Jun.2014= Value of Trade Falls With Oil and Strong Dollar Value of Trade Index Jan.1988=100; Axis Inverted West Texas Intermediate Texas Value of the Dollar NOTE: Data displayed are centered three-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted where appropriate. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Dallas Fed. Energy Information Agency. 96
19 Houston International Trade Index, Jun.2014= Value of Trade Falls While Volumes Stay Stable Value of Trade Vessel Weight NOTE: Data displayed are centered three-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted where appropriate. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Dallas Fed. Energy Information Agency.
20 Texas Medical Center
21 Health Employment Growth Percent 5.0 Job Growth Slowing Sept. to Dec. Dec.15 to Dec.16 Average since Total Ambulatory health (47%) Hospitals (27%) Other health (26%) NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total health employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
22 Construction & Real Estate
23 Construction & Real Estate Percent* 10 Sept.16 to Dec. 16 Dec.15 to Dec.16 Average since 2000 Construction Employment Falls Total construction Construction of buildings Heavy & civil construction Specialty trades Real estate & leasing NOTE: Real estate and leasing is not a subsector of construction.
24 Houston Home Sales Index Jan2000= Tight Market Pushes Up Prices Months supply of inventory Median Home Sales* Month's of supply *per the 12mma of payroll employment Note: Seasonally adjusted SOURCE: Houston Association of Realtors. Author's calculations.
25 Houston Home Sales 150 Total Multi-family pulls down total housing permits filed 1-Family Units
26 Outlook
27 Outlook
28 Outlook Percent change Houston Purchasing Managers Index and Employment Growth Index value U.S. recessions Houston employment HPMI NOTE: Employment growth is a three-month percent change. SOURCES: Institute for Supply Managment; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.
29 Outlook Percent growth 10 Total Number of Job Advertisements Slipping 8 6 Employment Total ads NOTE: Job ad data are a statistically optimized weighted moving averages, shifted forward two months.
30 Outlook Index, 1987= Major Leading Indexes paint improved, modest picture Index, 2010= Texas Leading Index U.S. leading index NOTES: July Texas Leading Index data point is an estimate. SOURCES: The Conference Board; Dallas Fed. 105
31 Looking Ahead
32 Looking Ahead Forecast: Dec-2015 to Dec-2016 Houston Job Growth*: -0.1% in to 1.5% in 2017 Texas Job Growth: % in 2017
33 More Content Online Houston Economic Indicators Energy Survey Regional Economic Updates & Indicators National Economic Updates International Economic Updates Research Publications St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data
34 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch February 2017 Image from
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