The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016
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1 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch June 2016 Image from
2 Houston Business-Cycle Index Percent* Average since 2000 = growth rate = YTD = *Annualized month-over-month growth rate. SOURCE: Dallas Fed
3 Employment Growth Total Trade, transp & utilities (20%) Professional & business svc (15%) Government (13%) Education & health services (13%) Construction & mining (11%) Leisure & hospitality (10%) Manufacturing (8%) Financial activities (5%) Other services (4%) Information (1%) Apr to Apr January to April NOTES: Chart shows seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage growth by industry supersector. Numbers in parentheses represent shares of total employment and may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.
4 Real Retail Sales & Wages Billions of 2016:Q1 dollars 52 Wages Flatten in 2015 Retail Sales Fall Billions of 2016:Q1 dollars Wages Retail sales NOTE: shaded area is U.S. Recessions SOURCE: National Bureau of Economic Analysis. Texas Comptroller of the currecny; adjustmets by the Dallas Fed. 18
5 Employment Growth rate Unemployment Drifts Up O.7 Points So Far. Labor Force Growth Accelerates. Unemployment rate Labor Force growth Percent NOTES: Labor force data is an annual six-month percent change. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
6 Oil & Gas Extraction
7 Oil & Gas Extraction Index, June 2014=100 U.S. Production Falling Millions of barrels per day U.S. Oil-directed rig count U.S. crude production Production down by 524K barrels per day since March Crude oil price NOTE: Rig count and crude production seasonally adjusted. Rig count and nominal oil price indexed to June
8 More job losses coming/already here as Bankruptcies Mount. Punchline 2015: Upstream CapEx in the U.S. Down ~40% 2016: CapEx to fall by Another ~40% in U.S. Cumulative 138 Oil &Gas Bankruptcies Nationally Representing ~$26.5 Billion in Debt May 16, 2016 (Haynes and Boone, llp) ~57,300 Core Oil-&-Gas-Related Jobs Lost Since Dec-2014
9 Upside Potential In Early 2017? When WTI Turns, How Long Before Rigs and Jobs Turn? Number of Quarters after WTI Peaks Number of Quarters after WTI Bottoms Rigs Energy Core Rigs Energy Core 1985Q4 1987Q3 1990Q4 1997Q4 2000Q4 2008Q2 2014Q2 Average ??????
10 Refining & Petrochemicals
11 Downstream Advantage Oil/Gas Ratio U.S. Downstream Still Cost Advantaged. Brent Spread WTI/HH Dollar Spread
12 Billions of dollars 20 Downstream Advantage Downstream construction in Houston falls off in 2017 & Number of projects Value of projects delivered Number of projects delivered $55 Billion in capital Investments announced in Houston-area alone Note: Data are value of construction projects delivered. SOURCE: Baytown Economic Development Foundation. Institute for regional forecasting. 0
13 Punchline 2015 & 2016: Upstream Jobs Down Downstream-Related Jobs Up 2017: Upstream Jobs Flat to Up? Downstream-Related Jobs Down On net, 2017 probably good for the region, but Houston Region Job Growth Could Stay Below Average into 2018
14 Construction & Real Estate
15 Construction & Real Estate Percent* Anomalous Growth in 2015:Q4 Revised Away Anomalous Contraction in 2016:Q1 Persists for now. Sept to Dec Dec to Mar Average since Total construction Construction of buildings Heavy & civil construction Specialty trades Real estate & leasing NOTE: Real estate and leasing is not a subsector of construction.
16 Office CRE Square feet 3600 Total Office Construction and Starts Falling Square feet Total Under Construction Construction started NOTE: Square feet of construction started is a centered three-quarter moving average. 0
17 Office CRE Percent 20 Office Vacancy Rates Tied with Post-Recession Peak Sublet Direct SOURCE: CBRE.
18 Houston Home Sales Index Jan2000= Prices level off as inventory rises Months supply of inventory Median Home Sales* Month's of supply *per the 12mma of payroll employment Note: Seasonally adjusted SOURCE: Houston Association of Realtors. Author's calculations.
19 Texas Medical Center
20 Health Employment Growth Percent Hospital employment growth very strong Apr to Apr Jan to Apr Average since Total Ambulatory health (46%) 0.1 Hospitals (27%) Other health (27%) NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total health employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
21 Outlook
22 Outlook
23 Outlook Percent change 8 6 Houston Purchasing Managers Index and Employment Growth Index value U.S. recessions Houston employment Houston PMI NOTE: Employment growth is a three-month annualized percent change. SOURCES: Institute for Supply Management; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.
24 Outlook Percent growth 10 New Job Ads Suggest Less Weakness In Job Growth Ahead Employment -15 New ads NOTES: Job ad data are a statistically optimized weighted moving averages, shifted forward two months.
25 Outlook Percent Change 30 U.S. and TX Leading Indexes Improve U.S. LEI TX LEI -40 Note: data are annualized three-month percent changes. SOURCE: Conference Board. Seasonal and other adjustments by the DallasFed.
26 Looking Ahead
27 Looking Ahead Houston Running Out of Steam as grim outlook for Upstream persists / spills into other industries. Forecast: Dec-2015 to Dec-2016 Houston Job Growth: 0 to -1% in 2016 & 2017 Texas Job Growth: 0.5 to 1.5% in 2016
28 More Content Online Houston Economic Indicators Regional Economic Updates & Indicators National Economic Updates International Economic Updates Research Publications St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data
29 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch May 2016 Image from
30 Oil and Gas Jobs Percent 25 Change 15 5 Selected Mining-Related Jobs 57,333 Core Oil-&-Gas- Related Jobs Lost Since Dec Support activities for mining Extraction Agriculture, construction & mining machinery Note: data are three-month annualized percent changes. Less than Half of Energy- Related Losses From Mining Directly
The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch February 2017
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