The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017
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1 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from
2 Employment Index, Dec-2014= : Houston Plateaus 2016: Houston Loses Jobs U.S. (ex Texas) Drilling activity collapses Texas (ex Houston) Houston Oil prices stop falling in Q1: SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, adjustments by the Dallas Fed. Metro Down 14K+ Jobs ytd in August
3 Employment Growth Rate % growth in 2H:2016. Houston returns to expansion in August? In April 2015, Houston began to broadly contract.? U.S. Recessions (NBER) Houston Recessions Houston Employment NOTE: Houston recession dates based on Houston Business Cycle Index. Data is quarterly; Q3:2016 is an estimate. SOURCE: NBER, BLS, and the Dallas Fed. 0
4 Employment Total Trade, transp & utilities (21%) rofessional & business svc (16%) Government (13%) Education & health services (13%) Leisure & hospitality (11%) Manufacturing (7%) Construction (7%) Financial activities (5%) Other services (3%) Mining & logging (3%) -6.7 Sept. to Dec. Dec.15 to Dec NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth by industry supersector. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed
5 Real Retail Sales & Wages Billions of 2016:Q1 dollars 49 Real Wages Paid in Houston Fall in Q1 Retail Sales Billions of 2016:Q1 dollars Wages SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed. 24
6 Oil & Gas Extraction
7 Oil & Gas Extraction Index, June 2014= U.S. Rig Counts and Houston Employment 110 Thousands of jobs Mining-related jobs: Total 71,000 Jobs lost Crude oil price ~61K Houston Core Oil-&-Gas-Related Jobs Lost Since Dec NOTE: Rig count and crude production seasonally adjusted. Rig count and nominal oil price indexed to June U.S. rig count
8 Oil and Gas Jobs Percent Change 25 Selected Mining-Related Job Growth Fabricated metals Architectural, engineering & related Total Extraction Support activities for mining Agriculture, construction & mining machinery Note: data are three-month annualized percent changes
9 Inventories Distillate fuel Crude (ex SPR) Gasoline Days of inventory tick up, crude and distillate down since last FOMC. Last FOMC Note: dashed lines are seasonally adjusted. Numbers are for week ending november 25th. SOURCE: EIA
10 Survey: Need WTI~$50 to drill Sept. WTI: $45
11 Oil & Gas Extraction Rigs Gas Basins Inch Up Rigs Permian Drives Recovery Rigs Marcellus Utica Haynesville W W May W W W W Sept W W W Jan. 100 Eagle Ford Williston Permian W W May W W W W Sept W W W Jan. SOURCE: Baker Hughes
12 Refining & Petrochemicals
13 Oil/Gas Ratio Refining & Petrochemicals Downstream advantage eroding? Brent Spread WTI/HH Dollar Spread
14 Refining 2009$ per barrel deviation from Mean Higher-cost Producer Measures of Margins at or Near Historical Mean. Global Boom in Demand Local Cost Advantage Normal? Muse, Stancil & Co. East Coast Margins Muse, Stancil, and Co. Gulf Coast Margins WTI Crack NOTE: Q3:2015 estimated. Crack spread based on WTI 1-month futures excl refining and transportation costs. Data adjusted to real using CPI and seasonally adjusted. SOURCE: EIA. WSJ. BLS. Pace Consulting, Muse Stancil and Co.
15 Billions of dollars 20 Downstream Advantage Downstream construction in Houston falls off in 2017 & Number of projects Value of projects delivered Number of projects delivered $55 Billion in capital Investments announced in Houston-area alone Note: Data are value of construction projects delivered. SOURCE: Baytown Economic Development Foundation. Institute for regional forecasting. 0
16 Manufacturing Upstream Manufacturing Finding Balance, Machinery Still Struggling Through Several Headwinds May to August December to August Total nondurable goods (37%) Chemicals (17%) Petroleum & coal (5%) Total durable goods (64%) NOTES: Data show the annualized and seasonally adjusted Percent change.. Sorted from largest to smallest industry. Fabricated metal products (22%) Machinery (20%) Computers & electronic products (7%)
17 Punchline 2015 & 2016: Upstream Jobs Down Downstream-Related Jobs Up 2017: Upstream Jobs Up Downstream-Related Jobs Down Houston Region Job Growth Could be anemic into 2018
18 International Trade
19 Houston International Trade Index, Jun.2014= Value of Trade Falls With Oil and Strong Dollar Value of Trade Index Jan.1988=100; Axis Inverted West Texas Intermediate Texas Value of the Dollar NOTE: Data displayed are centered three-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted where appropriate. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Dallas Fed. Energy Information Agency. 96
20 Houston International Trade Index, Jun.2014= Value of Trade Falls While Volumes Stay Stable Value of Trade Vessel Weight NOTE: Data displayed are centered three-month moving averages, seasonally adjusted where appropriate. SOURCE: Census Bureau. Dallas Fed. Energy Information Agency.
21 Texas Medical Center
22 Health Employment Growth Percent 7 Job growth slowing Sept. to Dec. Dec.15 to Dec.16 Average since Total Ambulatory health (47%) Hospitals (27%) Other health (26%) 0.5 NOTES: Data show seasonally adjusted and annualized percentage employment growth. Numbers in parentheses represent share of total health employment and may not sum to 100 due to rounding. SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; adjustments by the Dallas Fed.
23 Construction & Real Estate
24 Construction & Real Estate Percent* 5 Construction Employment Falls. September to December December to December Average since Total construction Construction of buildings Heavy & civil construction -9.6 Specialty trades Real estate & leasing NOTE: Real estate and leasing is not a subsector of construction.
25 Houston Home Sales Index Jan2000= Prices level off as inventory rises Months supply of inventory Median Home Sales* Month's of supply *per the 12mma of payroll employment Note: Seasonally adjusted SOURCE: Houston Association of Realtors. Author's calculations.
26 Houston Home Sales 150 Total Multi-family pulls down total housing permits filed 1-Family Units
27 Outlook
28 Outlook
29 Outlook Percent change Houston Purchasing Managers Index and Employment Growth Index value U.S. recessions Houston employment HPMI NOTE: Employment growth is a three-month percent change. SOURCES: Institute for Supply Managment; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed
30 Outlook Percent growth Employment Total ads NOTE: Job ad data are a statistically optimized weighted moving averages, shifted forward two months.
31 Outlook Index, 1987= Major Leading Indexes paint improved, tepid picture Index, 2010= Texas Leading Index U.S. leading index NOTES: July Texas Leading Index data point is an estimate. SOURCES: The Conference Board; Dallas Fed. 105
32 Looking Ahead
33 Looking Ahead Houston Running Out of Steam as grim outlook for Upstream persists / spills into other industries. Forecast: Dec-2015 to Dec-2016 Houston Job Growth*: 0.2% in to -1% in 2017 Texas Job Growth: % in 2017
34 More Content Online Houston Economic Indicators Energy Survey Regional Economic Updates & Indicators National Economic Updates International Economic Updates Research Publications St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data
35 The Houston Economy Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch January 2017 Image from
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