A Giant Producer, & An Emerging Giant Consumer/Investor. Hong Liang
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1 A Giant Producer, & An Emerging Giant Consumer/Investor China s Role in Global Trade and Investment Hong Liang Chief Economist, Head of Research October, 2016
2 I China: A global manufacturing power house, yet a new comer to global investment 1. China s share of global GDP has increased significantly following more than 3 decades of fast economic growth. 2. Its total trade has surpassed the US, and it has become a formidable global manufacturing power house. 3. Its domestic capital markets have also moved up the ranks globally. 4. Yet, global asset allocation to China and China s overseas investment remain very low. II China s annual net savings is multiple times of that of the US, and more than those combined by the G3 It will continue to drive down real investment returns both inside China and globally. III China s rising leverage reflects underlying inefficiencies in financial system and forced savings, rather than solvency risks Therefore, policies that can reduce those forced savings and improve financial sector inefficiencies will help stabilize growth, inflation, and leverage ratio.
3 I. China: A global manufacturing power house, yet a new comer to global investment 3
4 China s share of global GDP has increased significantly following more than 3 decades of fast economic growth (% of World GDP, US$) 40% Euro area China Japan United States (% of World GDP, PPP) 25% Euro area China Japan United States 35% 30% 25% % 20% 15% % 16% 20% 12% 15% 16% 15% 10% 10% 5% 6% 5% 4% 0% 0% Source: World bank, CICC Research 4
5 Its total trade has surpassed the US (% of World Export) 16% China United States Germany Japan 14% 12% 10% 8% % 9% 8% (% of World Import) 20% United States China Germany Japan 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% % 10% 6% 4% 4% 8% 6% 4% 6% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% Source: World bank, CICC Research 5
6 It has become a formidable global manufacturing power house (% of World Manufacturing, value added) 30% Germany China Japan United States 25% % 20% 15% 17% 10% 5% 7% 7% 0% Source: World bank, CICC Research 6
7 Its domestic capital markets have also moved up the ranks globally Domestic market capitalization (2015, TOP 10) Debt securities outstanding (2015, TOP 10) United States China Japan United Kingdom Euronext Hong Kong, China India Germany Canada United States Japan China United Kingdom France Germany Italy Netherlands Canada Switerzland (US$ bn) Australia (US$ bn) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Source: WFE, BIS, CICC Research 7
8 Yet, global asset allocation to China remains very low 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 44% 12% 7% 15% 22% GDP share 35% 3% 9% 23% 30% EPFR global funds' allocation 24% 3% 8% 15% 51% MSCI World index weight Others China Japan Euro US Currency composition of global FX reserves (As of 1Q2016) USD 63.6% EUR 20.4% GBP 4.8% JPY 4.1% Others 6.1% RMB 1.1% Weight in SDR Basket USD 41.7% EUR 30.9% GBP 8.1% RMB 10.9% JPY 8.3% Euro include UK, France, Germany and Italy. As of July 2016, 299 foreign institutions have been granted with QFII licenses, and the total quota is US$81.38 billion, of which ABU Dhabi Investment Authority got US$2.5 billion, Kuwait Investment Authority got US$1.5 billion, and Qatar Holding LLC got US$1 billion. Source: EPFR, Bloomberg, CEIC, IMF, CICC Research 8
9 China s overseas assets are relatively low 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Overseas assets as % of GDP China United States Japan 190.9% 130.1% 56.6% Source: IMF, CICC Research 9
10 II. China s annual net savings is still multiple times of that of the US, and more than those combined by the G3 10
11 China s annual net savings is still multiple times of that of the US. $bn 4000 Adjusted net savings, excluding particular emission damage (current $US) China United States Japan Source: CEIC, IMF, CICC Research 11
12 and more than those combined from the G3 US= Adjusted net savings, relative to the US China Japan UK, France, Germany, Italy Source: CEIC, IMF, CICC Research 12
13 III. China s rising leverage reflects underlying inefficiencies in financial system and forced savings, rather than solvency risks 13
14 China s debt: not a solvency issue, but much room for efficiency improvement Debt/GDP Deposit/GDP % Source: CEIC, CICC Research Note: Debt = Total social finance (excluding equity) + Government Bond; Deposits = M2 M0 14
15 Corporate s leverage rose while the public sector s savings went up Debt/GDP % 200 (Debt-deposits)/GDP % 150 Government Government Household Non-financial corporations 150 Household Non-financial corporations Source: CEIC, CICC Research 15
16 Government agency & org deposits kept rising 48 % Household deposits/m2 Non-financial corporate despits/m2 % Government agency & org depostis/m2, right scale Source: CEIC, CICC Research 16
17 Government agency & org deposits kept rising 25 Rmb trillion Social security fund + housing fund 20 Government agency & organization deposits Source: CEIC, CICC Research 17
18 Corporate tax burden has been increasing over time Rmb trillion 12 Social security fund + housing fund % 16 % of pre-tax income As % of GDP, right scale Overall tax burden for corporate sector Overall tax burden for household sector (include social security contributions) Source: CEIC, CICC Research 18
19 Short term: corporate sector s cash position has improved The cash flow position has strengthened for industrial enterprise since 2014 and for listed companies 80 % NBS industrial enterprise 45 % All listed non-financial companies (cash+short term investment*)/total liability cash & cash equivalents*/total revenue * cash + short term investment = reported current assets - account receivable - inventory * cash & cash equivalents = cash + bank deposits & certificate of deposits for corporate Source: CEIC, Wind, CICC Research 19
20 Long term: 470 % Japan's non-financial sector debt/gdp (govt., non-financial corporates and household) 630 % Japan's total debt/gdp (govt., non-financial corporates, household & financial inst.) Source: Haver, CICC Research 20
21 Thank you! 21
22 Important Disclosure General Disclosures This document has been produced by China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Limited (CICCHKS) or China International Capital Corporation (collectively, hereinafter CICC ). This document is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, but CICC do not represent that it is accurate or complete. The information and opinions contained herein are for investors reference only and do not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any client, and are not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or the opinions expressed herein constitute a personal recommendation to anyone. 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