2012 Baseline Prison Population Forecast & Act 570 Implementation Tracking

Transcription

1 2012 Baseline Prison Population Forecast & Act 570 Implementation Tracking Wendy Naro-Ware September 2012 Main Office: 720 Kearney St. Denver, CO Ph

2 FIGURE 1: Comparison of State Population with Crime Index per 100,000 Residents Arkansas Crime Index Axis State Population Axis 3,000, ,950,000 4, , , ,900, , ,850, , , ,800, ,750, , , ,700, , ,064.2 Resident Population 2,650, Total Reported Crime 2,600, Year 2,550,000 2

3 No. of inmates FIGURE 2: Historical Admissions to Prison: ,000 8,000 7,000 7, ,216 7, , ,529 1,069 6,573 7, , , , , , , Parole Revocations: -29.7% Probation Revocations: -15.1% 4,000 3,000 6,280 6,507 6,409 6,810 6,460 5,711 6,445 6,267 6,683 6,854 6,293 2,000 Average Annual Percent Growth : 0.2% Percent Change :-8.6% 1,000 Females Males Year 3

4 Total FIGURE 3: Historical Stock Population ,000 16,176 16,000 14,000 12,000 12, ,845 1,028 13, ,470 13, ,050 13,698 14,285 14,686 1,039 1,068 1,059 15,171 1,062 1,163 15,035 1,087 10,000 8,000 11,494 11,817 12,191 12,486 12,288 12,659 13,217 13,627 14,109 15,013 13,948 6,000 4,000 Female 2,000 Average Annual Percent Growth : 2.2% Percent Change : -7.1% Male Year 4

5 Severity Groups 1 and FIGURE 4: Comparison of Average Sentences for New Court Commitments Admitted to Prison by Severity Group Calendar Years 2007 Thru % 69-16% % % 116-9% 171-6% and *Offenders sentence to Life were omitted. Average Sentence in Months 5

6 TABLE 1 ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTION HISTORICAL ACT 1326/1135/1268 ADMISSIONS & YEAR END COUNT Year Total 70%ers Admitted Avg. Sentence (Mos.) Total End of Year 70%er Total 50%ers Admitted Total End of Year 50%er , , , , , , , , , , n/a 91 n/a Numeric Change Percent Change Percent Change % 0.0% % -5.6% % Source: ADC data extract admission and stock files 6

7 ID-Group* TABLE 2 ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTION OFFENDERS (RELEASED VIA DISCHARGE OR PAROLE) HELD BEYOND TRANSFER ELIGIBILITY DATE IN 2010 & 2011 Total Released via Discharge/Parole Total Held Beyond Transfer Eligibility Date % Held Beyond Transfer Eligibility Date For those held beyond TE Date, average # of months held over 2010 New Commitments Males 3,222 1, % 6.7 New Commitments Females % 2.9 TOTAL 3,694 2, % 6.2 SEPT. - DEC New Commitments Males 1, % 6.4 New Commitments Females % 4.6 TOTAL 1, % 4.2 *Excludes those with an offense date before 1/1/94, lifers, parole violator returns and 70%-ers. Source: ADC extract data release files 7

8 TABLE 3 EPA RELEASES CY Act Year Act 418 Total ,391 1, ,540 1, ,493 1, ,806 2, ,708 2, ,756 2, ,853 2, ,023 2,297 Source: ADC data runs from EOMIS 8

9 Figure 5: Trends in Male & Female Inmate Population for the Last 18 Months 15,500 1,200 1,180 15,000 1,160 1,140 14,500 1,120 1,100 14,000 1,080 1,060 13,500 Males Females 1,040 1,020 13,000 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 1,000 9

10 Total Figure 6: Historical & Projected ADC Population: ,000 20,000 19,989 15,000 15,035 17,829 12,333 10,000 5,000 Avg. % change : +2.1% Avg. % change BASE : +2.7% Avg. % change BEST CASE : +1.7% Historical Baseline Best Case 0 Year 10

11 Total Probation Admissions 12,000 10,000 8,000 8,899 8,872 Figure 7: Historical Probation Admissions & Year-End Population ,662 32,848 9,107 33,304 10,023 32,837 9,298 8,834 31,699 Probation Admissions Year-End Pop. 8,309 9,754 31,838 Year-end Pop. 34,000 33,000 32,000 6,000 30,498 31,000 30,062 4,000 30,000 2,000 Admissions Average % Change : +1.7% % Change : +17.4% Total Probation Pop. Average % Change : +0.7% % Change : +5.9% 29, Year 28,000 11

12 Number of Parole Admissions 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 8,557 10,846 7,070 11,774 Figure 8: Historical Parole Admissions & Year-End Population Historical Parole Admissions Year-End Pop. 13,076 6,570 14,674 7,260 16,472 7,720 18,123 8,554 19,146 9,021 19,974 9,586 21,445 21,774 10,229 23,407 9,668 9,817 Year-End Pop. 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 2,000 Admissions Average % Change : +1.8% % Change : +1.5% Total Parole Pop. Average % Change : +8.0% % Change : +7.5% 5, Year - 12

13 Figure 9: Parole Projections 30,000 25,000 23,407* 23,477 23,867 22,380 20,000 15,000 14,643* 14,227 Projected Active 10,000 8,764* 9,250 Projected Inactive Projected Total 5,000 * Most Recent Actual ,487 13

14 Figure 10: Probation Projections 35,000 30,000 31,838* 31,297 28,119 25,000 21,588* 21,032 27,050 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 10,250* 10,265 Projected Active Projected Inactive Projected Total * Most Recent Actual ,069 14

15 Figure 11: Comparison of Historical Prison & Probation Admissions 12,000 10,000 8,872 9,107 10,023 9,298 8,834 8,309 9,754 8,000 6,000 7,529 6,573 7,208 7,017 7,475 7,667 7,010 4,000 2,000 Probation Admissions Prison Admissions

16 STATE OF ARKANSAS ACT 570 POPULATION IMPACTS Merging of Sentencing Guidelines /Sentencing and Commitment Report The above changes were assumed to reduce the overall net sentences for offenders in levels 1-5 by 20% (return to CY 2002 levels). No diversions are assumed in this impact. Changes took effect January No results available from this effort. In 2011, sentences in level 1-5 decreased 10% collectively. 16

17 STATE OF ARKANSAS ACT 570 POPULATION IMPACTS Parole Release Risk Instrument/ Parole Releases From Jail The combination of these efforts will assumed to decrease the number of offenders held beyond their transfer eligibility date to 25%. Offenders held beyond their transfer eligibility date are assumed to remain an additional 3 months before release. By the end of 2011, the held beyond rate dropped to 47% for 4 months halfway to the original assumption. Parole board risk releases instrument began in January ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTION OFFENDERS (RELEASED VIA DISCHARGE OR PAROLE) HELD BEYOND TRANSFER ELIGIBILITY DATE IN 2010 & 2011 ID-Group* For those % Held held beyond Total Released Total Held Beyond TE Date, via Beyond Transfer Transfer average # of Discharge/Parole Eligibility Date Eligibility months held Date over 2010 New Commitments Males 3,222 1, % 6.7 New Commitments Females % 2.9 TOTAL 3,694 2, % 6.2 SEPT. - DEC New Commitments Males 1, % 5.4 New Commitments Females % 3.6 TOTAL 1, % 4.2 *Excludes those with an offense date before 1/1/94, lifers, parole violator returns and 70%-ers. Source: ADC extract data release files 17

18 STATE OF ARKANSAS ACT 570 POPULATION IMPACTS Changes in Drug Statutes The described drug status changes were assumed to have a projected impact on approximately 265 admissions will save an average of 10 months in length of stay. At the end of 2011, no cases had been admitted to ADC under the new drug statues. In 2011, cases admitted to ADC with a most serious charge of drug possession with intent to manufacture dropped 17%. 18

19 STATE OF ARKANSAS ACT 570 POPULATION IMPACTS Changes in Theft/Property Threshold Amount The described theft/property status changes were assumed to have a projected impact on approximately 85 admissions to save an average of 9 months in length of stay. At the end of 2011, no cases had been admitted to ADC under the new theft statues. In 2011, cases admitted to ADC with a most serious charge under the affected theft statues declined 19% -most notably in: fraudulent use of a credit card, hot check violation and theft by receiving. 19

20 STATE OF ARKANSAS ACT 570 POPULATION IMPACTS Earned Discharge from Parole and Probation It was assumed there would be approximate 66 admissions reduction in probation violators returned. It was also assumed approximately 29% of parole violators returned to prison will serve approximately 10 months less with earned goodtime on parole. At the end of 2011, no cases had been released from DCC having earned credits for discharge from parole or probation. In 2011, probation revocations returned to prison decreased 15% and parole revocations admitted to prison decreased 30%. 20

21 STATE OF ARKANSAS ACT 570 POPULATION IMPACTS 120 Day Electronic Monitoring Release for Non-Violent Offenders It is assumed that approximately 35% of all offenders meeting the early release electronic monitoring criteria will be released at 120 days. At the end of 2011, electronic monitoring release had not been established. In 2011, cases admitted to ADC in the sentencing guidelines boxes targeted for EM released decreased by 209 admissions. 21

22 STATE OF ARKANSAS ACT 570 POPULATION IMPACTS Intermediate Sanctions for Probation Revocations In accordance with new policies and procedures, it is assumed the creation and implementation of an intermediate sanctions grid will result in a 15% reduction in the number of probation violations returned to prison & 2011 PROBATION REVOCATIONS TO ADC BY OFFENSE Offense Group N Estimated % of Prison Admissions N Estimated % of Prison Admissions Avg. Sent. (mos.) Murder 3 0.0% 1 0.0% Assault % % 45.4 Sex crime % % 71.1 Robbery % % 70.5 Drug distribution % % 63.9 Drug possession % % 67.2 Burglary % % 36.5 Battery % % 51.6 Theft % % 64.2 Fraud % % 44.3 Forgery % % 58.2 Weapons/explosives % % 55.9 DWI 8 0.1% 1 0.0% 48.0 Other violent % % 59.8 Other property % % 71.3 Other non-violent % % 60.6 Criminal attempt % % Criminal conspiracy % 6 0.1% 86.6 Unknown % % 72.1 All 1, % 1, % 62.6 Source: ADC CY 2011 admissions data extract file; DCC CY 2010 probation release extract file In 2011, probation revocations returned to prison decreased 15.1% -most notably in for a most serious charge of burglary. 22