Pork Outlook. Professor of Agricultural Economics. Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, August 2007

Transcription

1 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference Indianapolis, August 2007 Pork Outlook Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia

2 Long Run Factors Production efficiency Hog cycle Seasonality Cost of production International trade Slaughter capacity Demand

3 Production Efficiency

4 Head Pigs Per Litter, USDA Hogs & Pigs Reports

5 Litters Per Sow Per Year, Litters

6 210 Average U.S. Hog Carcass Weight, Pounds

7 Pounds 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow,

8 Pounds 4,500 4,000 3,500 Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow, growth rate: 2.027% 3, growth rate 2.793% 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

9 Million Head U.S. Live Hog Imports,

10 Million Head U.S. Live Hog Exports,

11 10 Net U.S. Live Hog Imports, Million Head

12 Pounds 4,500 3,500 3,000 Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow, ,000 total domestic 2,500 2, ,500 1,

13 Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow, Pounds 4,500 4,000 3, ,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, growth rate: 2.027% growth rate 2.793%

14 Average Annual Productivity Growth Pigs/litter % % Litters/sow/year % % Pigs/sow/year % % Dom slght/pig weaned % % Dom slght/sow/year % % Slaughter weight % % Dom pork prod/sow/year % % Net hog trade impact % % Pork prod/sow/year % %

15 Hog Cycle

16 % change from year ago U.S. Commercial Hog Slaughter Quarterly Data,

17 % change from year ago Terminal Market Barrow & Gilt Price Quarterly Data

18 Hog Price Flexibility Quarterly Data % ch T Mkt B&G price / % ch com hog slt In 8 of last 15 quarters, price & slaughter moved in the same direction

19 Seasonality

20 Million Lbs Average U.S. Daily Pork Production Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

21 $/cwt 52 U.S. Monthly Average Hog Price Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

22 July to November Changes Daily Pork Production Barrow & Gilt Prices 1970s +30% 1970s -11% 1980s +24% 1980s -13% 1990s +20% 1990s -20% % %

23 Cost of Production

24 $ Per Live Cwt Cost of Slaughter Hog Production Iowa State University Calculations, Marketing Month Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

25 $ Per Bu. OMAHA CORN PRICES Weekly Avg JAN APR JUL OCT

26 Ethanol Capacity Growth 12 billion ga al Jan. 1 capacity Under construction Source: Renewable Fuel Association website

27 Billio on Bush hels Corn Milled for Ethanol % corn for ethanol: : 6% : 06: 14% : 20% : 26% Forecast

28 International Pork Trade

29 Thousand Metric Tons 1600 U.S. Pork Exports was the 15th consecutive record year for U.S. exports

30 $/hog slt 30 Value of U.S. Pork Exports 25 Pork ByProduct

31 Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, $ Per Head 50 Iowa State University Calculations consecutive months of profit, longest of record Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

32 Billion Pounds U.S. Commercial Pork Production Source: USDA/NASS

33 U.S. Pork Exports Carcass Weight Equivalent Billion Pounds Source: USDA/ERS

34 U.S. Pork Imports Carcass Weight Equivalent ion Pounds 0.4 Bill Source: USDA/ERS

35 Billion Pounds U.S. Production + Imports - Exports

36 Pounds 55 U.S. Per Capita Pork Consumption Source: USDA/ERS

37 Cents Per Pound U.S. US Retail Pork Price Source: USDA/ERS

38 Pork Trade Overview The steady decrease in US pork imports and increase in pork exports has caused per capita US pork consumption to decline. Thus, hog producers were able to enjoy three consecutive years with record hog slaughter and profitable prices.

39 U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, Mil. lbs. 350 Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent 300 Imports Exports % of 2006 U.S. pork production was exported Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

40 U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-May 2007 Change from year ago Country 000 lbs Percent Japan + 48, % Mexico - 79, % Canada + 3, % S. Korea + 4, % 3.1% Russia - 23, % China & HK + 30, % Taiwan - 13, % TOTAL - 37, %

41 U.S. Pork Exports, C Mil. lbs. Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent Japan Total Jan-0 0 Jan-0 1 Jan-0 2 Jan-0 3 Jan-0 4 Jan-0 5 Jan-0 6 Jan 0 7

42 U.S. Pork Exports, C Mil. lbs. Monthly Carcass Weight Equivalent Mexico Total Jan-0 0 Jan-0 1 Jan-0 2 Jan-0 3 Jan-0 4 Jan-0 5 Jan-0 6 Jan 0 7

43 China Pork Trade China is reported to be buying 70,000 MT of U.S. pork to help ease a run up in domestic pork prices (up 67.7% in June) caused by a pork shortage due to high feed prices and blue ear disease. In perspective, 70,000 MT* equals: 94% of 2006 China/HK imports of U.S. pork 5.1% of 2006 U.S. pork exports 0.73% of 2006 U.S. pork production * carcass weight equivalent

44 Fall Price Decline Aug-Oct Oct-Dec Aug-Dec 10 yr average -$ $4.63 -$ yr minimum -$3.09 +$2.51 -$ Futures -$ $1.35 -$ 3.97

45 Live Hog Trade

46 Thousands Pigs Born in Canada, JFM96 JFM97 JFM98 JFM99 JFM00 JFM01 JFM02 JFM03 JFM04 JFM05 JFM06 JFM07

47 Thousands U.S. Pig Crop, DJF 96 JJA 96 DJF 97 JJA 97 DJF 98 JJA 98 DJF 99 JJA 99 DJF 00 JJA 00 DJF 01 JJA 01 DJF 02 JJA 02 DJF 03 JJA 03 DJF 04 JJA 04 DJF 05 JJA 05 DJF 06 JJA 06 DJF 07

48 Growth in U.S.-Canadian Pig Crop (million head) Canada USA U.S.A During the past decade, 74% of the increase in U.S. S-Canadian pig production took place in Canada. Source: USDA/FAS

49 Exchange Rate: Can $ Per US $ Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q

50 Head per mo. 700, ,000 U.S. Hog Imports from Canada Slaughter Hogs Feeders Pigs 500, , , , ,

51 Head U.S. Weekly Feeder Pig Imports JAN AP JUL OC

52 U.S. Weekly Slaughter Hog Imports Head Jan Apr Jul Oct

53 Percent Canadian Hog Exports as % of Canadian Slauaghter JAN APR JUL OCT

54 % change from yr. ago Change in Hog Slaughter: US & Canada Weekly F.I. Hog Slaughter, USA combined Canada Jan Feb Ma r Ap r Ma Jun Ju ul Au Sep Oc t No Dec Jan Feb Ma Ap r r Ma Jun Ju ul Au

55 Slaughter Capacity

56 Head Daily Hog Slaughter Capacity Steve Meyer s survey indicates 2007 capacity of 425,185

57 Demand

58 Annual U.S. Pork Production, Billion Pounds actual 1.5% trend

59 U.S. Per Capita Pork Consumption, Pounds Retail Weight

60 U.S. Per Capita Pork Consumption, Pounds Boneless Weight

61 Change in Export Pork Demand Base Elasticity it = % Cha nge Year Ago 2001 Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec M ay Oct M ar Aug 2006 Jun Nov Apr

62 Change in Export Pork Demand Base Elasticity it = %change Yen/$ % Change fromyear Ago Yen Per $ May Sep 2000 May Sep 2001 May Sep 2002 May Sep 2003 May Sep 2004 May Sep 2005 May Sep 2006 May Sep 2007 May

63 Short Run Factors Demand Inventory Weights Price Forecast

64 Cents/lb Retail Price of Pork Record high Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007

65 % change from year ago Change in Pork Demand Base Elasticity = > Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug 2006 > Jun Nov Apr

66 % change from year ago Change in Hog Demand Base Elasticity = > Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug 2006 > Jun Nov Apr

67 Inventory Reports

68 Pig/Month Accumulated Profits, Dollars 1200 Iowa State University Calculations Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

69 Hog Inventory Reports U.S. June Canada April All Hogs & Pigs Kept for Breeding Kept for Marketing Under 60 lbs lbs lbs lbs. and over Sep-Nov Farrowings Dec-Feb Farrowings Mar-May Farrowings Jun-Aug Farrowing Intentions Sep-Nov Farrowing Intentions 100.4

70 Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined % change from yr. ago JFM99 JAS99 JFM00 JAS00 JFM01 JAS01 JFM02 JAS02 JFM03 JAS03 JFM04 JAS04 JFM05 JAS05 JFM06 JAS06 JFM07

71 Estimated Gilt Retention & Sow Loss, GG Cattle & Hog Fax Gilts Retained Sow Loss Thousand Head Per Week 0 '06 Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Sep Oct Nov Dec '07 Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul

72 Hog Weights

73 Pounds 208 Barrow & Gilt Carcass Weights Prior Day Slaughter Weekly Average JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

74 Hog Prices

75 $ per cwt. 85 BARROW AND GILT BASE PRICES Iowa - Minnesota, Carcass Basis, Weekly Avg JAN APR Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports JUL OCT

76 $ per cwt. 80 BARROW AND GILT NET PRICES National, Carcass Basis, Weekly 75 Avg JAN APR Source: USDA Prior Day Slaughtered reports JUL OCT

77 Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Live Price Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: USDA Prior Day Purchased reports

78 Major Unknowns Circovirus vaccine & death losses China & pork exports Weather Slaughter capacity

79 My Forecast

80 Commercial Hog Slaughter Forecast Million Head Qtr * * Change % +2.4% Qtr * * % +1.2% Qtr * Qtr * % +1.2% +2.8% +1.0% Year * % +1.4% Note: Q4 07 & Q3 08 have 1 more slaughter day *actual

81 Iowa-Minn Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight Qtr 1 $ * $ * $ Qtr 2 $65.41* $69.60* $67-71 Qtr 3 $68.24* $68-70 $64-68 Qtr 4 $ * $ $58-62 Year $62.68* $65-67 $63-67 *actual price prior day purchased

82 Iowa-Minn Live Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Live Hundredweight Qtr 1 $ * $ * $47-50 Qtr 2 $48.40* $51.50* $49-52 Qtr 3 $50.50* $50-52 $47-50 Qtr 4 $ * $45-48 $43-46 Year $46.38* $48-50 $46-49 *actual price 74% of carcass price

83 Forecast Summary Farrowings 0-2% above year-ago Continued 2-3% productivity growth More imports of Canadian hogs/pigs Possible increase in pork exports Stable domestic demand Rising feed cost

84 Any Questions?