Participation. Workers Compensation Insurance Seminar. May 22, Nick Beleiciks

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1 Oregon s Falling Labor Force Participation Workers Compensation Insurance Seminar May 22, 2013 Nick Beleiciks Let s start with a simple graph. Oregon Employment Loss by Recession 0% % Job Loss from Peak Employment 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Mar Baseline Number of Years from Employment Peak Projection: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, March

2 Translation: three years into recovery, we ve added back fewer than half of the jobs lost in the recession. th Percent Job Losses Relative to Peak Employment Mont 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% -6.0% -7.0% Percent of Job Losses in Oregon Since Peak in December ,200 more are needed to return to peak. 72,400 jobs have been added back. -8.0% 146,600 jobs were lost. -9.0% Number of Months After Peak Employment That s why Oregon s unemployment rate is still at historically high levels, equal to the worst rates of the early 2000s recession. Percent of Labor Force Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates, Oregon and U.S to Present Oregon U.S. Oregon s April Unemployment Rate In 2011: 9.6% In 2012: 88% 8.8% In 2013: 8.0% Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics 0.0 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 2

3 And there are still nearly 151,000 unemployed in Oregon, far above the roughly 100,000 pre recession level (but much better than the recession s 240,000). 250, , , ,000 Unemployed Persons, Oregon Statewide Not Seasonally Adjusted, 2003 to Present Oregon s April Unemployed Count: In 2011: 187,500 In 2012: 170,500 In 2013: 150,600 50,000 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Monthly job gains have been pretty average lately. 15,000 Oregon's Monthly Job Growth or Decline seasonally adjusted 10,000 5,000 Employment Low Point February ,000-10,000-15,000-20,000 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 3

4 90,000 Some industries are actually doing quite well. Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Professional and Technical Services: ,000 80,000 Employment 75,000 70,000 65,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Private Health and Social Services: , , , Employment 180, , , , What s happening in manufacturing? Employment 240, , , ,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Manufacturing: Consider this scenario: Increasing demand for manufactured products. Productivity high. Profits decent. Do we need to hire more people? 160,

5 Other sectors are not doing so well. Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Construction: , ,000 90,000 Employment 80,000 70,000 60,000 Seasonally Adjusted Employment in Oregon Government: , , ,000 Employment 280, , , , Five Key Facts from Last Week s News Release Unemployment rate fell to 8.0 percent Lowest rate since October 2008 (7.77 percent) Nonfarm payrolls added 3,700 jobs in April Payroll employment has risen for seven months in a row Oregon added 27,500 jobs since April 2012 Labor force participation rate was 61.9 percent Record low since series began in

6 Oregon s labor force participation rate has fallen dramatically in the last few years Oregon Labor Force Participation Rate Jan 2005 Jan This is perhaps the biggest single trend impacting Oregon s economy right now. It s one we knew was coming 2,050, Oregon Civilian Labor Force, Seasonally Adjusted 2003 to Present Slow population growth Retirements Low teen participation 2,000,000 1,950,000 1,900,000 1,850,000 1,800,000, 1,750,000 1,700,000 1,650,000 1,600,000 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics 6

7 Net migration into Oregon has slowed a lot. This has implications for labor force growth, labor force supply, and demand for products and services. 100,000 Components of Oregon's Annual Population Change 80,000 60,000 Net Migration Natural Increase 40,000 Persons 20, ,000-40,000-60,000 Source: Portland State University, Population Research Center Year The definition is important for this discussion. Participation Rate = In 2012, 63.4% = Employed + Unemployed Civilian Noninstitutional Population 1,792, ,000 3,097,000 Unemployed = No job, available and currently looking for work (regardless of unemployment insurance eligibility) Civilian = Not on active duty in the armed forces Noninstitutional = Not residing in prisons or homes for the aged Population = Anyone 16 years and older Students? In labor force if they are working or looking for work Retirees? In the population if not in a nursing home Undocumented immigrants? Included 7

8 Oregon s participation rate peaked at 68.9% in Oregon Has Followed the Long-Term U.S. Trends. Labor Force Participation Rates, Ages United States Oregon Oregon s rate is the lowest since state records began in Labor Force Participation Rates, Seasonally Adjusted US U.S. Oregon

9 More women participating in the labor force raised participation rates during the 1970s U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex Total Men Women and Oregon s labor force showed a similar pattern Oregon Labor Force Participation Rates by Sex Total Men Women

10 The aging of the population is responsible for about one half of Oregon s falling labor force participation (similar to the U.S.). Aging Population Accounts for One-Half of Falling Participation Rates Oregon's Population and Labor Force Participation Rates by Age Group Age Group Population Share LFPR Population Share LFPR Total Percentage Points Total LFPR change, Due to aging -3.2 Due to other effects -2.7 Source: Oregon Employment Department, using Current Population Survey data Older workers buck the trend of declining participation U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate, Age Age Projection

11 Perhaps it is time to expand the prime working age? 88.0 Labor Force Participation Rates, Age United States Oregon Discouraged workers who quit looking for work in the last 12 months are a small part of Oregon s falling labor force. 2,050,000 Oregon Labor Force and Discouraged Workers, ,000,000 Discouraged Workers (not in labor force) Labor Force Number of People 1,950,000 1,900,000 1,850,000 1,800,000 1,750,

12 Declines in participation among teenagers and young adults account for one fourth of the overall falling participation rate. 70 Oregon Labor Force Participation Rate, Age Age Projection Oregon s labor force participation rate ranks 31 st highest among the 50 states NV = 64.7% ID = 64.6% WA = 64.5% U.S. = 63.7% OR = 63.2% CA = 63.0% High ND = 83.7% Low WV = 54.3% 12

13 Labor force participation rates vary widely across Oregon s counties. High Hood River 83.7% Labor Force Participation Rates by County, 2012 Low Curry 47.4% 47.4% to 59.7% 59.8% to 63.3% 63.4% to 68.0% 68.1% to 83.7% Participation rate projected to continue falling through Oregon Labor Force Participation Rate Oregon 61.2 Projection Projection Trend

14 Overall participation rate will continue to fall as the population ages. LFPR for men will fall more than for women. Oregon Labor Force Participation Rate Projections, Teenager and young adult age groups will continue their trend of falling participation. Total, 16 years and older 2012 LFPR 2020 LFPR Change The prime working age population is expected to remain relatively lti l unchanged. Older worker age groups will continue to increase their participation. Men Women to to to to to to and older Nick Beleiciks, State Employment Economist Oregon Employment Department Nick.J.Beleiciks@state.or.us (503) To find this presentation online, go to and use the search box to look up my name Join the conversation: OregonEmployment.blogspot.com 14

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