The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast. Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist

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1 The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist

2 Agenda Economic conditions Economic outlook Light vehicle sales Light vehicle sales outlook NAAA 2015 Annual Survey results Auction industry outlook Take-always

3 BREXIT Probable Effect Small Negative Small negative for U.S. through stronger dollar and resulting weaker U.S. exports Additional adverse impact if financial markets are negatively affected which has not happened Positive impact of U.S. lower interest rates Less chance of a Federal Reserve mistake of raising interest rates too much, too soon Any major EMU country exit contagion is very unlikely due to the cost and complexity of breakup with a common currency

4 Recessions On Slides To Come Shown by gray shaded area Shown by red bars

Real Gross Domestic Product Real Gross National Product 0.2 3.1 2.7 1.4 2.0 3.9 3.9 2.7 2.5 1.7 1.3 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.7 3.0 1.9 1.9 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.6 4.3 3.9 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.1 0.6-2.7-0.5-1.9-5.4-8.2-1.

5 Real Gross Domestic Product Real Gross National Product Percent Change From Prior Quarter at Annual Rate Percent Change From Prior Year

6 Economic Growth Remains Low Real Gross Domestic Product Percent Change

7 Not All Bad Recessions in the past: Long periods of above average growth Lead to higher inflation as labor and productive resources are stretched The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow that growth This recovery/expansion: Below average growth Labor and productive resources are not stretched Inflation has not increased Federal Reserve has not increased interest rates

8 A Closer Look At Real GDP Percent Change Consumer Business Housing Exports Federal State/Local

9 Federal Spending & GDP, Percent Change Strong growth in federal spending after the serious 1982 recession helped propel the strong recovery GDP Federal Spending Declines in federal spending after the serious 2008 recession hurt the recovery

10 Employment Gains Lessen But Still Strong Longest string of job gains in U.S. history

11 Strong Employment Growth Low Unemployment Rate Best two-year gain since ,951 2,042 2,514 3,015 2, ,092 2,087 2,149 2,311 1,147 1, , , , Change in Employment (000s) Unemployment Rate (%)

12 82.0 Labor Resources Not Stretched Prime Age Workers Dropped Out Many Have Not Yet Returned Employment-Population Unemployment Rate

13 Productive Capacity Not Stretched Capacity Utilization Is Low

2.2 Strong Automotive Recovery Weak Housing Recovery 20.

2 Housing Starts (left axis) Light Vehicle (right axis)

14 2.2 Strong Automotive Recovery Weak Housing Recovery Housing Starts (left axis) Light Vehicle (right axis)

15 Weak Housing Recovery Much Room For Growth Housing Starts, Thousands of Units 1,573 1,601 1,710 1,854 1,950 2,073 1,812 1, ,001 1,

16 Household Financial Obligations Percent of Disposable Personal Income At Historic Lows

17 Higher Stock & House Prices Improve Household Willingness & Ability To Spend 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, S&P 500 (left axis) House Price (right axis)

18 Real Gross Domestic Product Slow, But Steady Percent Change

19 New Light Vehicle Sales Hit Record Millions Of Units % 1% 0% -1% -2% -1% -3% -3% % 10% 13% % 6% 6% -18% -21% New Vehicle Sales Percent Change

20 Light Trucks Lead The Way Millions of Units Autos Light Trucks

21 Future Auto Sales Drivers

22 New Light Vehicle Sales Hit A New Record Millions Of Units % 1% 0% -1% -2% -1% -3% -3% % 11% 10% % % 6% 1% -2% -18% -21% New Vehicle Sales Percent Change

23 Used Vehicle Retail Sales Slow Growth Millions of Units % 3.4% % % % NA 1.1% 1.5% -2.0% -3.6% -2.7% -2.8% -11.8% NA: Not available Used Vehicle Sales Percent Change

24 2015 NAAA Survey

25 Three Years of Strong Growth Auction Volume - Millions Of Units Sold

26 Auction Units Sold By Source Percent Change 15.2% 12.0% 12.4% 8.3% 2.6% 2.2% 3.8% 4.8% 3.4% 5.2% 7.6% 4.4% 9.5% -0.2% -1.5% -0.9% -12.4% -11.3% -9.4% -16.4% -15.4% -21.3% Dealer Consignment Commercial Consignment Total

27 Units Entered & Sold Conversion Rate Moves Up Millions Units % % % 55.8% 55.5% 55.9% 54.2% 54.2% Units Entered Units Sold Conversion Rate

28 Average Auction Price Highest Ever

29 Gross Value Record High Billions of Dollars % % 5.3% 1.2% 2.2% 1.9% -1.7% -2.4% -3.5% -1.0% -6.4% -5.9% Gross Value Percent Change

30 Six Years of Growth Auction Volume - Millions Of Units Sold

31 Take-Always Brexit not a serious problem Economic growth slow, but steady Conditions for recession not there New light vehicle sales topping but not collapsing Past strength in light vehicle sales support continued growth in total auction volume

32 The Auction Market In 2015 & 2016 Review & Forecast Dr. Ira Silver NAAA Economist

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium. Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015

U.S. AUTO INDUSTRY UPDATE Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium Emily Kolinski Morris Chief Economist May 2015 NORTH AMERICA INDUSTRY VOLUME SUMMARY 13.1 Total North America* (Mils.)