Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions,
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1 Global growth forecasts Key countries/regions, Percent Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean United States Euro area Japan Source: International Monetary Fund.
2 Substantial growth in emerging and developing markets Share of world GDP (percent), based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) Percent Developed economies Developing economies Source: International Monetary Fund.
3 World s 10 fastest growing economies IMF estimates, annual average GDP growth ( ) Dem Rep of the Congo Mozambique Côte d'ivoire Cambodia Ethiopia China Myanmar Nigeria Uganda Tanzania Source: International Monetary Fund. Note: Excludes countries with populations < 15 million Percent
4 Stock market performance Emerging markets vs. mature economies Index (January 2006 = 100) 200 MSCI Emerging Markets S&P MSCI Europe Source: Datastream.
5 Performance of emerging market equities By region MSCI Index (January 1, 2010 = 100) EMEA 120 Emerging Asia Latin America EMEA = Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Source: Bloomberg.
6 Performance of BRIC equities in dollars Index (2000 = 100) 1600 Russia Brazil India China Source: Datastream.
7 10-year sovereign bond yields Local currency Brazil Turkey Russia India South Africa Indonesia Hungary China Poland Thailand S. Korea Percent Source: Datastream. Note: Data as of April 17, 2014.
8 Several emerging markets have lower public debt-to-gdp ratios IMF estimates, 2013 General government gross debt (percent of GDP) Emerging markets Advanced economies Source: International Monetary Fund.
9 Central bank target interest rates in advanced countries remain low Policy rate, percent 6 United Kingdom United States Japan Eurozone Source: Bloomberg.
10 Flight to safety in major advanced countries government bonds 10-year government bond yield, percent 6 United States United Kingdom Japan Germany Source: Bloomberg.
11 Emerging market currencies depreciate on taper talk US$ per domestic currency unit, index (Jan 2011 = 100) 120 Russian ruble 110 Thai baht Indian rupee Brazilian real Source: Bloomberg.
12 Gross capital flows to emerging markets US$ billions Other investment Portfolio investment Foreign direct investment 1,400 1,200 1, Source: IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2014.
13 China s foreign exchange reserves reach $3.8 trillion International reserves assets (US$ billions) China Japan Saudi Arabia Russia Taiwan Brazil South Korea Eurozone Canada ,213 3, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Source: Bloomberg. Note: the latest available data as of April 14, 2014.
14 China s GDP slows out of double digit growth Annual GDP growth rate Percent change, annual Source: International Monetary Fund.
15 Emerging market corporate bond issuance US$ billions Source: Bloomberg.
16 Ricardo Adrogue s slides
17 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Emerging markets external balance Emerging Markets External Balance 2% 1% Current Account / GDP % 130-1% -2% Real Effective Exchange Rate (JP Morgan, right) % 100 Source: Haver Analytics, JP Morgan, Babson Capital LLC, as of September 30, 2013
18 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Emerging markets credit 70% Emerging Markets Credit to Private Sector (% of GDP) 60% 50% 40% 30% Source: Haver Analytics, JP Morgan, Babson Capital LLC, as of December 31, 2013
19 Global fixed income markets Global Fixed Income Market Size ($ trillions) 1,2,3,4 Global Fixed Income Market Size ($ trillions) 1,2,3, Growth Since ($ trillions) 2007 Mortgages / Securitized Debt % Emerging Markets Debt % Global Investment Grade Corp % Global High Yield % Sources: 1 Mortgages / Securitized Debt: SIFMA 2 Emerging Markets Debt: Bank of America 3 Global Investment Grade Corporate: Barclays Capital Global Corp. Aggregate 4 Global High Yield: Credit Suisse, SIFMA
20 Madelyn Antoncic s slide
21 A Picture Tells a Thousand Words Source: United Nations.
22 In billions of US dollars 2012 Country GDP Selected African GDP vs Peripheral Economies 2012 Country GDP (current USD) Angola Nigeria South Africa Algeria Egypt, Arab Rep. Ireland Greece Portugal Source: World Bank
23 2014 WB Doing Business Rankings MCSI EM Index Countries 2014 WB Doing Business Rankings Countries in red are for comparison purposes. Not included in the MSCI EM Index Source: World Bank
24 % Gross External Debt % Gross External Debt (% of GDP) % % % % % % 0.00% 1.7% 3.4% 9.1% 17.4% 19.4% 19.4% 22.5% 31.0% 32.3% 34.6% 35.7% 238.3% 242.4% 209.6% 129.3% 157.5% 95.4% 48.9% 51.0% 352.5% Source: World Bank, IMF.
25 USD Billion % FX Public debt vs. International Reserves (50.00) (100.00) (150.00) (200.00) (250.00) MSCI EM Index Countries FX Public debt vs. International Reserves % 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% % % % % % Total FX Public debt Total FX reserves Net FX debt to GDP Source: World Bank, IMF, JP Morgan.
26 USD Billion % FX Public debt vs. International Reserves (200.00) (400.00) (600.00) MSCI EM Index Countries FX Public debt vs. International Reserves , % 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% % % % % % Source: World Bank, IMF, JP Morgan. Total FX Public debt Total FX reserves Net FX debt to GDP
27 In billions of US dollars Reserves Reserves* All Countries Developing Countries Advanced Countries Year *including gold at current market value Source: IMF
28 In months of Imports Reserves to Imports 18.0 Reserves to Imports Developing Countries Advanced Countries Year Source: IMF
29 James McCaughan s slide
30 China Devalues: Winners, Losers Source: Bloomberg, Principal Global Investors
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