Rethinking Growth The Schumpeterian Perspective

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1 Rethinking Growth The Schumpeterian Perspective Philippe Aghion May 10th, 2017 LUISS University, Rome

2 Peter Howitt

3 Joseph Schumpeter

4 Schumpeterian growth theory Long-run growth driven by innovations Innovations result from entrepreneurial activities motivated by prospect of innovation rents Creative destruction: new innovations displace old technologies

5 Ufuk Akcigit

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9 Competition and growth: theoretical prediction

10 Competition and growth: empirical relationship

11 Richard Blundell

12 Competition, growth and distance to frontier

13 Competition and growth: the inverted-u relationship

14 Outline Introduction Growth enigmas Next

15 Growth enigmas The middle income trap The debate on secular stagnation Innovation, inequality, and social mobility

16 Argentinian versus US per capita GDP

17 Frontier innovation vs catch up growth

18 Enhancing productivity growth in advanced countries - Liberalization of product market - Investment in higher education - Liberalization of labor market

19 Enhancing productivity growth in emerging market economies Foster technology transfers Reallocate factors Improve management practices

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22 Long run growth effect of1000$ per-person spending on education

23 Fabrizio Zilibotti EEA Presidential Address

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25 Growth enigmas The middle income trap The debate on secular stagnation Innovation, inequality, and social mobility

26 Secular stagnation? Gordon and the fruit-bearing tree approach Summers and the keynesian approach

27 Two productivity growth waves 5% United States: HP filtering of Productivity growth with λ=500 4% Trend of productivity growth rate 3% 2% 1% 0% Total factor Productivity Labor Productivity

28 Secular stagnation? Dale Jorgenson Missing Growth Europe

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31 Sweden versus Japan

32 Country-specific productivity breaks Reformers Netherlands: Wassenaard agreement, 1982 TFP growth : ,5 %, ,5 % Canada, reforms initiated in early 1990s TFP growth: ,3 %, ,1 % Australia, reforms initiated in early 1990s TFP growth: ,4 %, ,4 % Sweden, reforms initiated in early 1990s TFP growth: ,4 %, ,9 %

33 Growth enigmas The middle income trap The debate on secular stagnation Innovation, inequality and social mobility

34 Percentile Share 30 Income shares at the very top over last 100 years: US top 1% increases from 9% in 1978 to 22% in US Top 1% US Top 0.1% U.S. Top 1% U.S. Top 0.1% Source: Atkinson, Piketty & Saez; High Income Database

35 Two main ideas Different measures of inequality which must be looked at differently Top income inequality, Gini, social mobility Innovation is a source of top income inequality which differs from other sources (entry barriers,..) *Steve Jobs* versus *Carlos Slim*

36 Why innovation differs from other sources of top 1% increase? Generates growth (we know) But in addition, *we* show that: Innovation generates temporary rents (imitation and creative destruction) Innovation enhances social mobility (creative destruction) Innovation does not increase broad inequality

37 Innovation and Top Income Inequality Philippe Aghion (LSE) Ufuk Akcigit (Chicago) Antonin Bergeaud (LSE) Richard Blundell (UCL) David Hemous (Zurich)

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43 By contrast, lobbying Increases top income inequality Increases inequality at large Reduces social mobility Does not enhance growth

44 Lobbying VS Top1% (USA)

45 Lobbying VS GINI (USA)

46 Looking ahead

47 Growth meets development Hsieh and Klenow Akcigit, Alp and Peters

48 Link between the age and the size of firms

49 Distribution of firms productivity

50 Becoming an inventor

51 Becoming an inventor Akcigit, Toivanen, Vaananen (Finland) Bell, Chetty, Jaravel, Van Reenen (US)

52 Introduction Basic questions: 1. What determines who become inventors? 2. Income mobility of inventors versus non-inventors?

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57 Probability of Becoming and Inventor: IQ

58 Probability of Becoming and Inventor

59 Probability of Becoming and Inventor

60 Probability of Becoming and Inventor

61 Probability of Becoming and Inventor

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70 Conclusion We have proposed a new theory but also a new way to do growth theory, through continuous dialogue with micro-data Our purpose was both, to better understand the growth process and also to rethink growth policy Addressing growth enigmas is useful, not only to satisfy our scientific curiosity, but also for society

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