1 2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy
2 PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2
3 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University, its President, John R. Broderick, the Board of Visitors, the Strome College of Business, or the generous donors who support the activities of the Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy and the Economic Forecasting Project.
4 2018 Hampton Roads Economic 2018 Hampton Roads Forecast Economic Forecast Stagnant Growth, Growth, Improving Future? Improving Future? Professor Vinod Agarwal Professor January 31, Vinod 2018 Agarwal January 31, 2018
5 Annual Growth Rate in Real GDP Hampton Roads and the United States 3% 2% 1.62% 2.12% 2.17% 1.49% 2.25% 1% 0% -0.04% -1.09% 0.80% -1% -2% 2001 to to to to 2017e United States Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Data on GDP incorporates latest BEA revisions in September US GDP is advance estimate while Hampton Roads GDP is our estimates. 5
6 % 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Monthly Job Growth From Pre-Recession Peak Employment Hampton Roads, Virginia and United States, % 4.69% -2.25% -8% Months Since Pre-Recession Peak United States Virginia Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Peak employment for the United States was January 2008, Virginia was April 2008, and Hampton Roads was July Seasonally adjusted data through December 2017 (US and VA) and November 2017 (HR). Last month of data are preliminary. Data measure number of reported jobs.
7 Defense Spending in Hampton Roads
8 Billions of Dollars DoD Base Budget Cap, Request, and Appropriations Bills Fiscal Year 2018 $590 $580 $570 $560 $550 $540 $530 $520 $510 $500 $490 $522 DoD Budget Control Act Cap $574 POTUS Request $584 $581 House Appropriations Senate Appropriations Sources: Budget Control Act of 2011, FY 2018 Presidential Budget Request, U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate
9 Billions of Dollars Estimated Direct DoD Spending Hampton Roads, 2000 to Source: U.S. Department of Defense and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. *Includes Federal Civilian and Military Personnel and Procurement. Data for 2016 are estimates and data for 2017 are forecasts. 9
10 Estimated Average Compensation Hampton Roads, Selected Categories Change in Compensation Military $91,561 $92, % Federal Civilian Govt. Employees State and Local Govt. Employees $107,322 $109, % $62,602 $64, % Private Nonfarm $42,189 $41, % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Compensation includes wages, salaries, and benefits. 10
11 Where are the jobs?
12 Thousands of Jobs Average Annual Civilian Jobs Hampton Roads, Source: U.S. Department of Labor CES data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March 2018
13 Change in Private Sector Employment Selected Industries in Hampton Roads, 2007 Q1 to 2017 Q1 Health Care and Social Assistance Accomodation and Food Transportation and Warehousing Professional and Scientific Management of Companies Utilities Finance and Insurance Admin and Support Real Estate Information Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Manufacturing Construction Source: Virginia Employment Commission: Covered Employment and Wages by Private Ownership and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
14 Thousands of Individuals Civilian Labor Force Hampton Roads, Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
15 Thousands of Individuals Number of Individuals Employed Hampton Roads, 1999 to Source: U.S. Department of Labor LAUS data and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Not seasonally adjusted. Data will be revised in March/April 2018
16 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Headline Unemployment Rate (U3) Hampton Roads, Virginia, and United States January 2007-December 2017* 4.1% 4.3% 3.7% United States Virginia Hampton Roads Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Seasonally adjusted data and the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project. Preliminary data: US and VA (Dec 17) and HR (Nov 17). Hampton Roads data only through November 2017.
17 Residential Housing is Looking Up
18 Millions of Dollars $1,600 $1,400 Value of Building Permits for One-Unit Family Homes Hampton Roads, $1,338 $1,200 $1,000 $978 $800 $600 $551 $400 $200 $0 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project
19 25,000 Existing and New Construction Home Sales Hampton Roads, ,492 20,000 15,000 14,703 10,000 5,000 2,265 3, Existing Homes New Construction Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. Figures reported here represent only those properties that are listed through REIN by REIN members and may not represent all new construction activity in our region.
20 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Distribution of New Construction Home Sales by Financing Type Hampton Roads, FHA VA Conventional Cash 49.0% 29.0% 15.8% 4.1% Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed.
21 $250,000 $200,000 Median Sales Price of Existing Homes Hampton Roads, $223,000 $180,000 $219,000 $150,000 $116,900 $100,000 $50,000 $ Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed = 91% increase is a 22% increase.
22 Median Sale Price of Existing Residential Homes for Selected Cities in Hampton Roads: 2007 and 2017 Median Price Median Price City % change Chesapeake $250,100 $245, % Norfolk $195,000 $183, % Portsmouth $165,500 $140, % Suffolk** $257,500 $240, % Virginia Beach $245,000 $247, % Hampton $180,000 $155, % Newport News $199,250 $170, % Williamsburg* $284,450 $283, % Hampton Roads $223,000 $219, % Source: Real Estate Information Network and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Information Deemed Reliable But not Guaranteed. * Williamsburg represents Williamsburg, James City County, York County and Gloucester County. ** Median price in Suffolk peaked in 2006 at $263,950 22
23 30% 25% Short Sales and Bank-Owned Sales as Percent of Total Sales Hampton Roads, % 20% 15% 10% 7.1% 8.4% 5% 0% 1.2% 3.6% 0.2% Short Sales REO Sales
24 Hotel Industry
25 Millions of Dollars Source: STR Global and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $520.2 Hotel Revenue in Hampton Roads $708.3 $645.3 $803.1 $841.6 $
26 6.0% Growth in Hotel Revenue and Revenue Per Available Room United States, Virginia, and Hampton Roads, % 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 4.0% 3.0% 3.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% United States Virginia Hampton Roads Hotel Revenue Revenue per Available Room
27 Source: STR Trend Report, January 17, 2018, and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. Williamsburg Market includes James City County, York County, and City of Williamsburg. Growth in Hotel Revenue Hampton Roads, 2016 to 2017 Hampton Roads Chesapeake/Suffolk Newport News/Hampton 3.85% 4.80% 5.81% Norfolk/Portsmouth 14.43% Virginia Beach 4.15% Williamsburg Market 0.16% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
28 Millions of Dollars Source: Aidna (2018) market data adjusted by Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy. Excludes shared rooms $7 $6 $5 $4 Monthly Airbnb Revenue in Hampton Roads $5.88 $3 $2.16 $2 $1 $0 $0.42 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
29 Port of Virginia: Growing rapidly
30 Millions of Tons 25 General Cargo Tonnage Port of Virginia, Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
31 Thousands of TEUs 3,000 Twenty Foot Equivalent Container Units (TEUs) Port of Virginia, ,841 2,500 2,000 2,128 1,745 2,224 1,500 1,348 1, Source: Virginia Port Authority and Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project.
32 Millions of Containers Movement of Containers by Type of Transportation Port of Virginia, Rail Barge & Truck
33 Number of TEUs Average TEUs per Container Vessel Call Port of Virginia, ,000 1,800 1,798 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,158 1,201 1,307 1,341 1,410 1,514 1, Source: Virginia Port Authority and the Old Dominion University Economic Forecasting Project. 33
34 Hampton Roads Real Gross Domestic Product Initial Forecast Hampton Roads Real Gross Domestic Product Mid-year revision 2017 Forecast 2017 Actual 2018 Forecast 1.4% % % Civilian Job Growth 0.5% -0.3% 0.5% Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% Taxable Sales 2.6% 3.0% 3.0% Hotel Revenue 4.4% 4.8% 3.9% General Cargo Tonnage 2.7% 5.3% 2.8% One Unit Housing Permit Value 2.6% 8.5% 2.4% Source: 2017 data reflects the annual rate of growth, last month, or day business day of 2017 where appropriate. 34
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2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy PRESENTING SPONSOR EVENT PARTNERS 2 The forecasts and commentary do not constitute an official viewpoint of Old Dominion University,
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