A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values

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1 A Primer on Factors Affecting Farmland Values Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago David Oppedahl Business Economist

2 The economy hit bottom in June 2009, with hesitant growth since then Chicago Fed National Activity Index Three month average Above Trend Growth Below Trend Monthly 1990'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

3 In December 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its Fed Funds rate target to a range from 0 to 0.25% FedTarget FedFunds

4 Quantitative easing was necessary Assets of the Federal Reserve Billions of dollars 3,000 2,500 Maiden Lane II & III Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility 2,000 1,500 1, AIG Support Central Bank Swaps Commercial Paper Facility Maiden Lane Term Auction Credit Securities Held Outright

5 Food price increases again rising faster than core inflation (less food and energy) (Consumer price index, percent change from year ago) CPI LFE CPI Food

6 Why is the Chicago Fed interested in Agriculture? Important portion of District economy Wide geographic impact Backbone of economy Leading farm states Food manufacturing Jobs Income Impact on commercial banks Response to stakeholders

7 7th District Agriculture Products (as % of U.S. total, 2010) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Grain Corn Soybeans Hogs Eggs Milk Production Cattle

8 Why the interest in farmland values? Accounts for huge portion of sector asset value An indicator of agriculture s health Affects collateral values & portfolio quality Impact on lending institutions A factor in the 1980 s farm crisis

9 Participating Banks Banks in 7th District Land Value and Credit Conditions Survey

10 Annual change in farmland values in Seventh Federal Reserve District Percent

11 Year over year changes by quarter in farmland values in the Seventh Federal Reserve District Percent

12 Index of Seventh District farmland values (1981=100) Nominal Inflation Adjusted

13 Indices of Seventh District farmland values and USDA farm real estate (1981=100, adjusted by PCE) USDA Index 7G Index

14 Index of Seventh District Cash Rents Nominal vs. Inflation Adjusted (1981=100) Nominal Inflation Adjusted

15 Farmland Price to Earnings Ratio for the Seventh District (1981=1)

16 7th District Earnings to Price Ratio (left axis, 1981=1) vs. Real Return on 10 Year Treasury Bonds 1.4 Percent E/P Ratio year bond rate

17 What factors affect farmland values? Expected net returns Interest rates Government programs Capital investment in structures Non-farm demand Inflation, lending policies, other investments, speculation, technology, trade, site characteristics, environmental issues

18

19 Corn production a bit smaller than last year billion bushels /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12*

20 Growth in industrial demand (especially for ethanol production) surpassed feed demand for corn 8 Food, Seed & Industrial billion bushels Livestock Feed Exports /91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11

21 Lower corn stocks and higher prices in 2010/11 and beyond $7 30% $6 25% Price per bushel $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 14% 11% 17% 5% 10% 15% 19% 18% 19% 16% 11% 9% 20% 17% 12% 13%14% 13% 9% 6% 20% 10% Stocks/use ratio $0 1991/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12* 0% stks/use ratio price

22

23

24 Soybean production expected to be down... 4 billion bushels /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12*

25 Crushings are stalling while soybean exports have climbed in the last decade 2.0 Crush billion bushels Exports /91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 10/11

26 Prices moving higher as soybean constraints ease $14 19% 20% Price per bushel $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 16% 14% 14%13% 13% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 9% 7% 7% 5% 4% 15% 10% 5% Stocks/use ratio $0 1991/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12* 0% stks/use ratio price

27 Real Crop Prices ($/bushel, adjusted by CPI-U for January 2008) Corn Soybeans

28 7th District Crop Yield Indexes (1964=100) Corn Soybeans

29 U.S. agricultural output, inputs, and total factor productivity (TFP) (1948=100) Output TFP Inputs

30

31 Housing market tanked and bounced along bottom Housing starts (thousands of units, 3-month moving average, SAAR) 2.5 Home mortgage rate (percent, effective rate for all loans closed) '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 ' '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11

32 Building Permits for Single-family Houses in Chicago Collar Counties (not seasonally adjusted) Inner Outer

33 Financial indicators for the farm sector Net farm income Farm program spending Farm balance sheet Interest rates are still relatively low Credit conditions improved in recent years Fewer loan renewals and extensions Less than 2% of agricultural loans with major or severe repayment problems

34 Real net farm income boosted by direct government payments to farmers, but the regional impact varies 100 billion 2005$ * gov't payments *forecast

35

36

37 Real growth in farm sector assets and equity until the recession, as debt remained more level 2500 billion 2005$ Assets Equity 500 Debt

38 Farm financial ratios improved following the 80s crisis percent 16 Debt/asset ratio * *forecast

39 Interest rates charged on new farm loans in the Seventh Federal Reserve District percent 10 5 Farm real estate Farm operating

40 Index of agricultural loan demand for the Seventh Federal Reserve District (excluding real estate)

41 Index of funds availability for the Seventh Federal Reserve District

42 Index of agricultural loan repayment rates for the Seventh Federal Reserve District

43 9.1% of U.S. Exports in 2009 were Food and Agricultural Products Global Trade in Action

44 Value of agricultural exports surging again Exports billion $ Surplus FY Imports 2012* (*projected)

45 The dollar s exchange value peaked in 2002, before falling below earlier range (Real Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of the US$) {March 1973=100}

46 Supporting factors for farmland values? 1. Higher expected stream of farm income 2. Productivity and yield trends 3. Mix of investors has broadened (more diversifiers; fewer recreational buyers) 4. Off-farm income growth is uncertain 5. Government payments are lower, but strong support for crop insurance persists 6. Low interest rates for agriculture 7. Limited availability of farmland 8. Opportunism

47 Where do farmland values go next? Supply of farmland (limited) Demand for farmland (strong) Farmland values increasing rapidly Uncertain future, but it s not the 1980 s Fundamentals favor further increases in farmland values, although not as rapidly

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