Resource use in the World Economy A preliminary assessment

Transcription

1 Resource use in the World Economy A preliminary assessment Marina Fischer-Kowalski, Nina Eisenmenger, Fridolin Krausmann Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna

2 Now for the first time it is possible to present a comprehensive empirical assessment of global resource use, both materials and energy, on the basis of reasonably reliable and purely physical data and document longer time series. As far as materials are concerned, this is due to recent improvements in international statistics, such as: FAO (biomass), IEA (energy and fossil fuels), USGS (ores and minerals) and OECD (longer time series compiled by Maddison) as well as intensive efforts from the part of research institutions, in particular: The National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan, the Sustainable Europe Institute (SERI), The Social Ecology Institute and the Wuppertal Institute. Several of these efforts were supported by EU FP5 und FP6 projects (such as MOSUS and MATISSE), but also by various national science funds Most of the data shown are novel, under publication, and should not (yet) be disclosed to third parties. Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 2

3 The big picture: levels and dynamics of energy and materials use worldwide 1. Metabolic scale 2. Metabolic rate 3. Decoupling Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 3

4 Definition: metabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material (DMC) or primary energy input (TPES, DEC) of a socio-economic system according to established standards of MEFA analysis. The metabolic scale of the world economy has been steadily increasing: From 2 billion tons in 196 to over 6 bio t in 25 (DE, materials extracted; on the global level = DMC) From 12 EJ primary energy in 196 to 44 EJ in 24 (TPES, biomass excluded) Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 4

5 Global metabolic scale Total Global DMC, billion tons Total Global TPES (commercial fuels), EJ Biomass Ores, ind. Minerals Fossil fuels Constr. Minerals Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Geothermal Source: Krausmann et al. forthcoming, based on Krausmann et al. 28 (Biomass), Podobnik, IEA (Fossils), USGS (minerals) Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 5

6 Population and population dynamics One key factor in the increase of global metabolic scale seems to be human population dynamics. This is plausible from a theoretical point of view: a certain average personal material standard of living is linked to a certain level of resource use. Empirically, the metabolic scale of socio-economic systems corresponds closely to their population numbers. If we standardize metabolic scale by population, we arrive at metabolic rates. Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 6

7 Definition: Metabolic rate is the metabolic scale of a socio-economic system divided by its population number = annual material / energy use per capita The global metabolic rate: Has, after an initial rise following the Second World War to the early 197ies, remained fairly constant worldwide at about 8t/cap (DMC) and 6 GJ/cap (TPES) until the year 2 Despite quite substantial economic growth About the year 2, there seems to have started a new phase of growth with regard to metabolic rates Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 7

8 Global metabolic rates Global DMC, t/cap/yr (left axis) 6 4,5 9 Global TPES, GJ/cap/yr (left axis) ,5 - DMC GDP (const. 2 $) TPES GDP (const. 2 $) Source: Krausmann et al. forthcoming, based on Krausmann et al. 28 (Biomass), Podobnik, IEA (Fossils), USGS (minerals) Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 8

9 Global metabolic rates and global GDP/capita Global DMC, t/cap/yr (left axis) 6 4,5 9 Global TPES, GJ/cap/yr (left axis) Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis) 3 1,5 3 Global GDP, $/cap*yr (right axis) 2 - DMC GDP (const. 2 $) TPES GDP (const. 2 $) Source: Krausmann et al. forthcoming, based on Krausmann et al. 28 (Biomass), Podobnik, IEA (Fossils), USGS (minerals) Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 9

10 The level of the metabolic rate depends on development and transition patterns It is not as simple as often presupposed High income industrial countries = high metabolic rates Lower income developing countries = lower metabolic rates Because of (at least) 2 factors Resource endowment and role in the world economy (trade relations) Population density (infrastructures) Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 1

11 Metabolic rates by the development status and population density of countries DMC t/cap in yr Construction minerals Ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels Biomass Share of world population High density industrial 13% Low density industrial 6% High density developing 62% Low density developing (NW) 6% Pop density Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 11

12 DMC per capita (in the year 2) Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 12

13 Cultural / price shocks may have a substantial and lasting impact Globally stable metabolic rates in the period appear to be a composite result of different trends in various world regions Stability in EU 15 and Japan (likely) decline in (ex) Soviet Union and Eastern Europe Rise in many developing countries Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 13

14 The limits to growth -shock: Global metabolic rates DEC (energy per capita use / capita by energy in GJ DEC) type GJ/cap Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear Geothermal Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 14

15 Metabolic rates (material) for selected industrial and developing countries Industrial countries Developing countries DMC t/cap*yr (left axis) DMC t/cap*yr (left axis) 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1, EU15 DMC USA DMC Japan DMC EU15 EU15 GDP USA GDP Japan GDP Brazil DMC China DMC India DMC USA Japan Brazil China India Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 15

16 Metabolic rates (energy) for selected industrial and developing countries Industrial countries Developing countries TPES GJ/cap*yr (left axis) TPES GJ/cap*yr (left axis) EU15 TPES USA TPES Japan TPES EU15 GDP USA GDP Japan GDP Brazil TPES China TPES India TPES EU15 USA Japan Brazil China India Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 16

17 3. Decoupling Relative decoupling occurs when resource use increases at a slower pace than the economy. Rising resource productivity is a measure of relative decoupling. Definition: resource productivities (material productivity, MP; energy productivity, EP) of socio-economic systems are calculated as amount of income achieved (GDP) by one unit of resource use (1 t DMC, 1 GJ TPES). Thus, if income grows faster than resource use, resource productivity rises; if income grows slower, RP sinks. In mature industrial economies, resource productivity on the socio-economic system level typically rises by 1-2% annually. In developing countries, trends are very uneven, with RP rising or sinking. Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 17

18 Trends in material productivity (increase in %) Industrial countries Developing countries 3% MP=$ GDP / t DMC 3% MP=$ GDP / t DMC 25% 25% 141 2% % 15% % 19 1% % 5% 5% EU15 MP USA MP Japan MP EU15 USA Japan EU15 GDP USA GDP Japan GDP Brazil MP China MP India MP Brazil China India Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 18

19 Longterm increase in economic energy productivity (19-25) Energy Efficiency ($ GDP / GJ primary energy DEC) Austria United Kingdom Japan Productivity increases: Average 11 % per decade, or roughly 1% annually. [$/GJ] Source: Social Ecology DB Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 19

20 Growth rates of economic resource productivity on the socio-economic system level rarely surpass growth rates of GDP. This probably relates to the fact that growth of resource productivity and growth of GDP mutually reinforce each other. Thus resource savings that occur because of increased resource productivity tend to be (over)compensated by accellerated economic growth. (Socalled rebound effect, see Dimitropoulos 27). In effect, cases of absolute decoupling on the socioeconomic system level are rare. Exceptions since 198: Japan (materials), Germany (materials and energy), UK (materials) Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 2

21 Trends in material productivity in relation to trends in GDP (% increase) Industrial countries Developing countries 3% MP=$ GDP / t DMC 3% MP=$ GDP / t DMC 25% 25% 2% 2% 15% 15% $ GDP 1% $ GDP 1% 5% 5% EU15 MP USA MP Japan MP EU15 USA Japan EU15 GDP USA GDP Japan GDP Brazil MP China MP India MP Brazil China India Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 21

22 Trends in energy productivity in relation to trends in GDP (% increase) Industrial countries Developing countries 25% EP = $ GDP / EJ TPES 4% 35% EP = $ GDP / EJ TPES 2% 3% 15% 25% 2% $ GDP 1% $ GDP 15% 1% 5% EU15 EP USA EP Japan EP EU15 USA Japan EU15 GDP USA GDP Japan GDP 5% Brazil EP China EP India EP Brazil China India Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 22

23 On the global level, and on the level of socioeconomic systems (countries), there is plenty of evidence on decoupling between resource use and GDP. At the rate of 1-2% annually, it is, in fact, business as usual. Two factors outweigh the effects of decoupling and contribute to substantial overall physical growth: population growth and transitions between metabolic rates in the course of development. What might convergence scenarios in the year 25 look like? Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 23

24 Three forced future scenarios for 25 Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes Global metabolic rates in t/cap 16 Construction minerals Ores and industrial minerals Fossil fuels 12 8 Biomass Baseline 2 Freeze & catching up Factor 2 & catching up Freeze global DMC Baseline 2 Freeze & catching up Factor 2 & catching up Freeze global DMC Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 24

25 Scenario assumptions (all : relation between high density/low density countries remains unchanged; population growth by UN projection) 1. Baseline 2 scenario 2. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2, developing countries catch up to same rates 3. Factor 2 and catching up: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up 4. Freeze global DMC: global resource consumption by the year 2 remains constant by 25, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 25

26 Deviation of scenarios from baseline 2 (in indexed t/cap) Freeze & catching up Factor 2 & catching up Freeze global DMC HDI 1,,5,3 LDI 1,,5,3 HDD 2,4 1,2,8 LDD 2,7 1,3,9 Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 26

27 Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov FIN

28 Metabolic rates (material) for selected industrial and developing countries , in relation to GDP / capita Industrial countries Developing countries DMC t/cap*yr (left axis) GDP $/cap*yr (right axis) DMC t/cap*yr (left axis) GDP $/cap*yr (right axis) EU15 DMC USA DMC Japan DMC EU15 USA Japan EU15 GDP USA GDP Japan GDP Brazil DMC China DMC India DMC Brazil China India Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 28

29 Metabolic rates (energy) for selected industrial and developing countries , in relation to GDP / capita Industrial countries Developing countries TPES GJ/cap*yr (left axis) TPES GJ/cap*yr (left axis) GDP $/cap*yr (right axis) GDP $/cap*yr (right axis) EU15 TPES USA TPES Japan TPES EU15 GDP USA GDP Japan GDP Brazil TPES China TPES India TPES EU15 USA Japan Brazil China India Brazil GDP China GDP India GDP Fischer-Kowalski UNEP Nov. 8 29