The New York Times/CBS News Poll September 12-16, 2004
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- Shonda Watkins
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1 The New York Times/CBS News Poll September 12-16, 2004 For release in paper of September 18, 2004 N= 1,287 Registered N= 1,088 All trends are from New York Times/CBS News polls unless otherwise noted. An asterisk indicates registered respondents only. Some people are registered to vote and others are not. Are you registered to vote in the precinct or election district where you now live, or aren t you? Yes No DK/NA 9/12-16/ How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2004 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? A lot Some Not much None DK/NA 7/8-9/03* CBS /26-28/03* CBS /28-10/1/03* /10-12/03* CBS /10-13/03* /14-16/03* /12-15/04* /12-15/04* CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
2 ROTATE QUESTIONS 2 AND Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven t you heard enough about John Kerry yet to have an opinion? Not Haven t Favorable Favorable Undecided heard enough Refused 8/26-28/03* CBS /28-10/1/03* /28-10/1/03 DPV /10-13/03* /10-13/03 DPV /14-16/03* /14-16/03 DPV /12-15/04* /12-15/04 DPV /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
3 3. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven=t you heard enough about George W. Bush yet to have an opinion? Not Haven t heard Favorable Favorable Undecided enough Refused 4/99 CBS /99 CBS* /99 CBS* /99 CBS* /99 CBS* /99* /99* CBS /00* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00* /00* /00B* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00A* /00D* /00* CBS /00* /00* CBS /00* /00L* /15-17/01 CBS /10-12/01 CBS /8-12/ /4-5/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /28-31/01 CBS /13-16/ /20-24/ /13-27/ /26-28/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /10-14/ /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
4 4. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2004 election for President this November -- would you say you will definitely vote, probably vote, probably not vote, or definitely not vote in the election for President? Definitely Probably Probably Definitely vote vote not vote not vote DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* If the 2004 Presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for Kerry and Edwards or Bush and Cheney? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED) Kerry and Bush and Other Won t vote Depends Edwards Cheney (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) DK/NA 2/24-27/04* CBS /20-23/04* CBS /10-14/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* RELATED TREND: IF THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE BEING HELD TODAY, AND THE CANDIDATES WERE JOHN KERRY, THE DEMOCRAT, AND GEORGE W. BUSH, THE REPUBLICAN, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR JOHN KERRY OR GEORGE W. BUSH? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED) WON T VOTE DEPENDS KERRY BUSH OTHER(VOL.) (VOL.) (VOL.) DK/NA 2/12-15/04* CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* IF ANSWERED DK/NA TO Q.5, ASK: 6. Well, as of today, do you lean more toward John Kerry and John Edwards, or more toward George W. Bush and Dick Cheney? Kerry Bush Won't Vote(vol.) Depends(vol) DK/NA 9/12-16/04*
5 7. Is your mind made up or is it too early to say for sure? Mind made up Too early DK/NA 2/12-15/04* CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* IF ANSWERED GEORGE W. BUSH TO Q.5, ASK: 8. Would you describe your support for George W. Bush as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates? Like with Strongly favor reservations Dislike others DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /12-16/04* IF ANSWERED JOHN KERRY TO Q.5, ASK: 9. Would you describe your support for John Kerry as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates? Like with Strongly favor reservations Dislike others DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /12-16/04*
6 10. If the 2004 Presidential election were being held today, and the candidates were George W. Bush for President and Dick Cheney for Vice- President, the Republicans; John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice-President, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, would you vote for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney; John Kerry and John Edwards, or Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED. QUESTION NOT ASKED IN STATES WHERE RALPH NADER WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE ON THE BALLOT GA, IL, IN, MD, MO, OK, OR AND VA.) Won t vote Depends Kerry Bush Nader Other(vol.) (vol.) (vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/04* RELATED TREND: IF THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE BEING HELD TODAY, AND THE CANDIDATES WERE JOHN KERRY, THE DEMOCRAT, AND GEORGE W. BUSH, THE REPUBLICAN, AND RALPH NADER, WOULD YOU VOTE FOR JOHN KERRY, GEORGE W. BUSH OR RALPH NADER? WON T VOTE DEPENDS KERRY BUSH NADER OTHER(VOL.) (VOL.) (VOL.) DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS Regardless of how you intend to vote for President in 2004, who do you expect to finally win the 2004 presidential election -- John Kerry or George W. Bush? (CANDIDATE NAMES ROTATED) Kerry Bush Depends(vol.) DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /12-16/04* If the 2004 election for U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? Won t vote Depends Rep. Dem. Other(vol.) (vol.) (vol.) DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /11-15/04* /12-16/04*
7 13. So far, would you be more likely to describe the 2004 Presidential election as interesting or dull? Interesting Dull DK/NA 9/12-16/04* READINGS FROM PAST ELECTION YEARS: INTERESTING DULL DK/NA 11/84B /88C* /92A* /92C* /92C /96* /96C* /96* /00* /00B* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00A* /00D* /00*
8 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Ap- Dis- DK/ Ap- Dis- DK/ prove approve NA prove approve NA 2/10-12/01 CBS /26-28/03 CBS /8-12/ /15-16/03 CBS /4-5/01 CBS /28-10/1/ /10-12/01 CBS /20-21/03 CBS /14-18/ /10-12/03 CBS /28-31/01 CBS /10-13/ /11-12/01 CBS /14-15/ /13-14/ /12-15/ /20-23/ /12-15/04 CBS /25-28/ /24-27/04 CBS /7-10/ /10-14/ /5-6/02 CBS /30-4/1/04 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /23-27/ /21-24/ /20-23/04 CBS /24-26/02 CBS /23-27/ /1-2/02 CBS /11-15/ /28-5/1/ /15-18/04 CBS /13-14/02 CBS /12-16/ /19-20/02 CBS /18-20/02 CBS /8-9/02 CBS /13-16/ /22-23/02 CBS /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /22-23/02 CBS /3-6/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /4-6/03 CBS /19-22/ /5-6/03 CBS /10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /7-9/ /15-16/03 CBS /17/03 CBS /20/03 PANEL /20-21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /20-24/ /26-27/03 CBS /2-3/03 CBS /11-13/ /26-27/03 CBS /9-12/ /13-27/ /11-12/03 CBS
9 15. Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right Wrong DK/ Right Wrong DK/ Dir. Trk. NA Dir. Trk. NA 1/ /10-12/03 CBS /83 NYT /10-13/ /83 NYT /14-15/ / /12-15/ / /12-15/04 CBS / /10-14/ / /30-4/1/04 CBS /94 CBS /23-27/ /95 NYT /20-23/04 CBS / /23-27/ /96 CBS /11-15/ /96 NYT /15-18/04 CBS / /12-16/ / / / / / /98A /98B / /8-12/ /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /25-28/ /7-10/ /24-27/ /13-16/ /22-23/02 CBS /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /3-6/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /10-12/ /20-21/ /22/ /20-22/ /11-13/ /13-27/ /28-10/1/ QUESTION READ: DO YOU FEEL THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GENERALLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION TODAY, OR DO YOU FEEL THINGS HAVE GOTTEN OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK? 2 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST POLL. QUESTION READ: DO YOU THINK THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GENERALLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR DO YOU FEEL THINGS HAVE GOTTEN PRETTY SERIOUSLY OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK? 3 ABC NEWS POLL. QUESTION READ: DO YOU THINK THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY ARE GENERALLY GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION OR DO YOU FEEL THINGS HAVE GOTTEN PRETTY SERIOUSLY OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK? 4 WASHINGTON POST POLL, CONDUCTED 1/28-31, AFTER THE LEWINSKY SCANDAL BROKE. 9
10 16. Which one issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2004 presidential campaign? 12/10-12/14-1/12-3/10-4/23-6/23-9/12-13/03 15/03 15/04 13/04* 26/04* 27/04* 16/04* Economy War Health Care Jobs/Unemployment Medicare/Medicaid Education Specific country/person Defense/Military Taxes Poverty/Homelessness Budget Deficit Foreign Policy Social Security Terrorism Abortion Immigration Environment Elderly Religious Values Foreign Trade Security/Safety For. Aid/Dom. Affairs Politicians/ Government Other DK/NA IF AN ISSUE WAS GIVEN IN Q. 16, ASK: 17. From what you have seen or heard, do you think either candidate is talking about that issue? IF YES, Which candidate? Kerry Bush Both No DK/NA 9/12-16/04*
11 18. How about the economy? Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the economy? Ap- Dis- Ap- Disprove approve DK/NA prove approve DK/NA 3/8-12/ /30-4/1/04 CBS /4-5/01 CBS /23-27/ /23-25/01 CBS /20-23/04 CBS /10-12/01 CBS /23-27/ /14-18/ /11-15/ /25-28/ /15-18/04 CBS /7-10/ /12-16/ /5-6/02 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /21-24/ /24-26/02 CBS /13-14/02 CBS /18-20/02 CBS /8-9/02 CBS /13-16/ /22-23/02 CBS /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /22-23/02 CBS /3-6/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /4-6/03 CBS /19-22/ /5-6/03 CBS /10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /7-9/ /20-21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /20-24/ /11-13/ /26-27/03 CBS /9-12/ /13-27/ /11-12/03 CBS /26-28/03 CBS /15-16/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /12-25/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/
12 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the situation with Iraq? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 2/10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /7-9/ /15-16/03 CBS /17/03 CBS /20/03 PANEL /20-21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /20-24/ /26-27/03 CBS /2-3/03 CBS /11-13/ /26-27/03 CBS /9-12/ /27-28/03 CBS /8-9/03 CBS /11-12/03 CBS /15-16/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /20-21/03 CBS /10-12/03 CBS /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /30-4/1/04 CBS /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/04 CBS /12-16/
13 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the campaign against terrorism? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 10/25-28/ /07-10/ /5-6/02 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /21-24/ /24-26/02 CBS /1-2/02 CBS /13-14/02 CBS /19-20/02 CBS /18-20/02 CBS /8-9/02 CBS /22-23/02 CBS /6-7/02 CBS /2-5/ /22-23/02 CBS /27-28/03 CBS /10-13/ /14-15/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /30-4/1/04 CBS /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/04 CBS /12-16/ VARIED WORDING: QUESTION READ WAR ON TERRORISM 13
14 21. How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad or very bad? Very Fairly Fairly Very Very Fairly Fairly Very good good bad bad DK/NA good good bad bad DK/NA 8/ / / / /90B / / /11-13/ / /19-20/ / /98A /91D /98B / / /92A / /92B /00D* /92A / /92B / / /00 CBS / /01 CBS / /01 CBS /92A /8-12/ /92A /01B CBS /92A /01 CBS /92C /14-18/ /92D /20-23/ /92E /25-28/ / /07-10/ / /5-6/02 CBS / /15-17/02 CBS / /21-24/ /93A /24-26/02 CBS /93B /13-14/02 CBS / /18-20/02 CBS / /13-16/ / /22-23/02 CBS / /6-7/02 CBS / /2-5/ / /3-6/ / /27-31/ / /20-24/ / /4-6/03 CBS / /19-22/ / /10-12/ / /20-21/ / /22/ / /23/ / /24/ / /20-24/ / /11-13/ / /9-12/ / /28-10/1/ / /20-21/03 CBS / /10-13/ / /14-15/ / /12-15/ /96B /10-14/ / /23-27/ / /20-23/04 CBS / /23-27/ / /15-18/04 CBS /96C /12-16/ / / / / / /
15 22. Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same DK/NA Better Worse Same DK/NA 9/ / /76A /95 CBS /76B / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /96 NYT / / / /96C /80A / / / / / / / / / /86* / /87A /97 CBS /87BNYT /97 CBS / / / / / /98A /88* /98B /88A* / /88A* /01 CBS /88B /01 CBS / /8-12/ / /01B CBS / /01 CBS /90B /14-18/ /91 CBS /20-23/ /91 CBS /25-28/ / /07-10/ / /5-6/02CBS / /21-24/ /91D /13-14/02 CBS / /13-16/ /92A /3-5/ /92B /27-31/ /92B /20-24/ / /19-22/ / /11-13/ / /9-12/ /92A /13-27/ /92A /26-28/03 CBS /92A /28-10/1/ /92C /10-13/ /92D /14-15/ /92E /12-15/ / /12-15/04 CBS / /10-14/ / /23-27/ / /20-23/04 CBS /93A /23-27/ /93 CBS /15-18/04 CBS / /12-16/ / / / / /
16 23. In the last four years, has the number of jobs in your community increased, decreased or stayed about the same? Increased Decreased Stayed same DK/NA 8/15-18/04 CBS /12-16/ ROTATE QUESTIONS 24 AND Is your opinion of John Edwards favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven t you heard enough about John Edwards yet to have an opinion? Not Haven t Favorable Fav. Undecided heard enough Refused 8/26-28/03* CBS /28-10/1/03* /28-10/1/03 DPV /10-13/03* /10-13/03 DPV /14-16/03* /14-16/03 DPV /12-15/04* /12-15/04 DPV /24-27/04* CBS /20-23/04 CBS /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* Is your opinion of Dick Cheney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven=t you heard enough about Dick Cheney yet to have an opinion? Not Haven t heard Favorable Favorable Undecided enough Refused 8/00* CBS /00* CBS /00A* /00D* /00* CBS /00* /00L* /15-17/01 CBS /8-12/ /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /21-24/ /13-16/ /12-15/ /10-14/ /23-27/ /23-27/ /11-15/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
17 26. Compared with past presidential campaigns, do you think the campaign has been more positive this year, more negative this year, or about the same? More positive More negative Same DK/NA 10/21-24/88* /31-11/2/88* /2-4/92* /31-11/1/92* /10-13/96* /17-20/96* /12-16/04* Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have increased the number of jobs in the United States, decreased the number of jobs, or have the policies of the Bush Administration not affected the number of jobs in the U.S.? Increased Decreased No effect DK/NA 9/28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/04* /12-16/04* Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have made the United States safer from terrorism, less safe from terrorism, or have the policies of the Bush Administration not affected the U.S.' safety from terrorism? Safer Less safe No effect DK/NA 9/28-10/1/ /12-15/ /10-14/ /30-4/1/ /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/04* /12-16/04*
18 29. Do you think the policies of the Bush Administration have increased the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly, decreased the cost or have the policies of the Bush Administration not affected the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly? Increased Decreased No effect DK/NA 3/10-14/ /12-16/04* ROTATE QUESTIONS AND How much do you think George W. Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you -- a lot, some, not much or none at all? A Lot Some Not Much None at all DK/NA 3/8-12/ /14-18/ /21-24/ /20-24/ /19-22/ /9-12/ /13-27/ /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /12-16/04* Do you think George W. Bush has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not? Has Does not have DK/NA 1/15-17/01 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /19-22/ /5-6/03 CBS /26-27/03 CBS /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
19 32. Do you think George W. Bush shares the moral values most Americans try to live by, or doesn=t he? Shares moral values Does not DK/NA 7/20-23/00* /9-11/00* /15-17/02 CBS /13-16/ /10-13/03* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /12-16/04* Do you think George W. Bush says what he really believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? What he believes What people want to hear DK/NA 10/28-30/99 CBS /12-14/00* /20-23/00* /18-20/00* CBS /18-21/00* /1-4/00* /15-17/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /15-17/02 CBS /10-14/04* /30-4/1/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
20 34. Do you think George W. Bush has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Yes No DK/NA 10/28-30/ /19-21/00* CBS /10-13/00* /20-23/00B* /18-20/00* CBS /9-11/00* /27-10/1/00* /6-9/00* CBS /18-21/00* /15-17/01 CBS /10-12/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /11-12/01 CBS /13-14/ /20-23/ /21-24/ /9-12/ /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /10-14/04* /30-8/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* Whether or not you approve of his policies, do you think of George W. Bush as someone you would like personally? Yes No DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /30-8/1/04* CBS /12-16/04* Do you think George W. Bush is the kind of person who is able to admit it when he makes a mistake or isn t he that kind of person? Is that kind of person Isn t DK/NA 6/23-27/04* /12-16/04*
21 38. Do you think George W. Bush is the kind of person who listens to different points of view or isn t he that kind of person? Is that kind of person Isn t DK/NA 6/23-27/04* /12-16/04* How much do you think John Kerry cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself -- a lot, some, not much, or none at all? A lot Some Not much None DK/NA 2/24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /12-16/04* Do you think John Kerry has the same priorities for the country as you have, or not? Has Does not have DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* /12-16/04* Do you think John Kerry shares the moral values most American try to live by, or doesn't he? Shares moral values Does not DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /12-16/04* Do you think John Kerry says what he really believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? What he believes What people want to hear DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-4/1/04*CBS /23-27/04* /20-23/04* CBS /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
22 43. Do you think John Kerry has strong qualities of leadership, or not? Has Does not have DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /30-8/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* Whether or not you approve of his policies, do you think of John Kerry as someone you would like personally? Yes No DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /30-8/1/04* CBS /12-16/04* Do you think John Kerry is the kind of person who is able to admit it when he makes a mistake or isn t he that kind of person? Is that kind of person Isn t DK/NA 6/23-27/04* /12-16/04* Do you think John Kerry is the kind of person who listens to different points of view or isn t he that kind of person? Is that kind of person Isn t DK/NA 6/23-27/04* /12-16/04*
23 ROTATE QUESTIONS AND Do you have confidence in George W. Bush s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 7/00B* /00* CBS /00* CBS /00* /00* CBS /00* /00* /15-17/ /10-12/ /8-12/ /4-5/01 CBS /23-25/01 CBS /14-18/ /20-24/ /7-9/ /11-13/ /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* Do you have confidence in George W. Bush's ability to make the right decisions about the nation's economy, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 11/20-24/ /19-22/ /11-13/ /9-12/ /28-10/1/ /12-15/ /12-15/04 CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04*
24 52. If George W. Bush is re-elected President in November, how much confidence do you have that he would make the right decisions when it comes to protecting the country from terrorist attack --- a lot, some, not much, or none at all? A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* If George W. Bush is re-elected President in November, do you think your taxes will go up, go down or stay about the same? Go up Go down Stay about the same DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* If George W. Bush is re-elected President in November, do you think the threat of another terrorist attack in the United States will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? Increase Decrease Stay about the same DK/NA 9/12-16/04* What do you think George W. Bush has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as president or attacking John Kerry? Explaining Attacking DK/NA 3/30-4/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* Do you think the Bush campaign has been spending too much time talking about the past and not enough time talking about the future, or is the balance about right? Yes, Balance Too much about too much about right future(vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/04* Do you think George W. Bush has made it clear what he wants to accomplish in the next four years as president? Yes No DK/NA 9/12-16/04*
25 58. Do you have confidence in John Kerry's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 2/24-27/04* CBS /10-14/04* /23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* Do you have confidence in John Kerry's ability to make the right decisions about the nation's economy, or are you uneasy about his approach? Confidence Uneasy DK/NA 3/10-14/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* If John Kerry is elected President in November, how much confidence do you have that he would make the right decisions when it comes to protecting the country from terrorist attack ---- a lot, some, not much or none at all? A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* If John Kerry is elected President in November, do you think your taxes will go up, go down or stay about the same? Go up Go down Stay same DK/NA 4/23-27/04* /15-18/04* CBS /12-16/04* If John Kerry is elected President in November, do you think the threat of another terrorist attack in the United States will increase, decrease, or stay about the same? Increase Decrease Stay same DK/NA 9/12-16/04*
26 63. What do you think John Kerry has been spending more time doing in his campaign -- explaining what he would do as president or attacking George W. Bush? Explaining Attacking DK/NA 3/30-4/1/04* CBS /15-18/04* /12-16/04* Do you think the Kerry campaign has been spending too much time talking about the past and not enough time talking about the future, or is the balance about right? Yes, Balance Too much about too much about right future(vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/04* Do you think John Kerry has made it clear what he wants to accomplish in the next four years as president? Yes No DK/NA 9/12-16/04* ROTATE QUESTIONS 66 AND In his statements about his service in the National Guard, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying? Entire Hiding Mostly Depends truth something lying (vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/04* In his statements about his service in Vietnam, do you think John Kerry is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying? Entire Hiding Mostly Depends truth something lying (vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/04*
27 68. Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out? Right thing Stay out DK/NA 12/10-13/ /14-16/ /12-15/04 CBS /24-27/04 CBS /10-14/ /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/04 CBS /12-16/ How likely do you think it is that there will be another terrorist attack in the United States within the next few months -- very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, not at all likely? Very Somewhat Not very Not at all DK/NA 9/20-23/ /8/01 CBS /25-28/ /7-10/ /5-6/02 CBS /21-24/ /24-26/02 CBS /1-2/02 CBS /15-18/02 CBS /13-14/02 CBS /19-20/02 CBS /18-20/02 CBS /8-9/02 CBS /13-16/ /2-5/ /27-31/ /20-24/ /19-22/ /10-12/ /24-25/03 CBS /4-5/03 CBS /27-28/03 CBS /26-28/03 CBS /11-15/ /15-18/04 CBS /12-16/
28 72. How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? Would you say things are going very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or very badly? Very Somewhat Somewhat Very well well badly badly DK/NA 5/27-28/03 CBS /8-9/03 CBS /11-12/03 CBS /26-28/03 CBS /15-16/03 CBS /20-21/03 CBS /10-12/03 CBS /10-13/ /14-15/ /21-22/03 CBS /8/04 CBS /23-27/ /20-23/04 CBS /23-27/ /11-15/ /15-18/ /12-16/ Should the United States troops stay in Iraq as long as it takes to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy, even if that takes a long time, or should U.S. troops leave Iraq as soon as possible, even if Iraq is not completely stable? Stay as long as it takes Leave ASAP DK/NA 6/23-27/ /12-16/ Have there been more American military casualties in the war with Iraq than you expected, fewer than you expected, about as many as you expected or aren t you sure yet how many American military casualties there have been? More Fewer About what expected Not sure DK/NA 4/11-13/ /12-16/
29 SPLIT HALF ASK EITHER QUESTION 76 OR When he talks about the war in Iraq, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying? Entire Hiding Mostly truth something lying Depends(vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/ When he talks about how things are going for the U.S. in Iraq today, do you think George W. Bush is telling the entire truth, is mostly telling the truth but is hiding something, or is mostly lying? Entire Hiding Mostly truth something lying Depends(vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/ RELATED TREND: IN HIS STATEMENTS ABOUT THE WAR IN IRAQ, DO YOU THINK GEORGE W. BUSH IS TELLING THE ENTIRE TRUTH, IS MOSTLY TELLING THE TRUTH BUT IS HIDING SOMETHING, OR IS MOSTLY LYING? ENTIRE TRUTH HIDING SOMETHING MOSTLY LYING DK/NA 4/23-27/ Do you think Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the September 11 th, 2001 terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon? Yes No DK/NA 9/22-23/ /10-12/ /7-9/ /2-3/03 CBS /11-13/ /9-12/ /28-10/1/ /30-4/1/04 CBS /23-27/ /23-27/ /12-16/ Do you think the U.S. will be able to capture or kill Osama bin Laden before the November election, sometime after the November election, or will the U.S. probably never capture or kill Osama bin Laden? Already Before After Never captured/killed(vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/
30 80. How much have you heard or read about the advertisements sponsored by a group of Swift Boat Veterans who have questioned John Kerry's war record -- a lot, some, not much, or nothing so far? A lot Some Not much Nothing DK/NA 9/12-16/04* QUESTIONS WERE ONLY ASKED OF THOSE WHO ANSWERED A LOT, SOME, OR NOT MUCH TO Q From what you know, are the charges in the ads against John Kerry mostly true or mostly false? Mostly true Mostly false DK/NA DK ads 9/12-16/04* From what you know, do you think there has been coordination between the Bush campaign and the people running the Swift Boat ads, or hasn't there been? Yes No DK/NA DK ads 9/12-16/04* From what you've heard or read about the Swift boat ads, do you think the veterans in the ads represent the views of most Vietnam war veterans, or are they speaking only for themselves? Most Speaking for themselves DK/NA DK ads 9/12-16/04 * How much have you heard or read about testimony John Kerry gave to a Congressional committee when he returned from Vietnam -- a lot, some, not much, or nothing so far? A lot Some Not much Nothing DK/NA 9/12-16/04 * IF ANSWERED A LOT, SOME, OR NOT MUCH TO Q.84, ASK: 85. How does John Kerry's testimony affect what kind of president he might be? Would it make him a more effective president, a less effective president, or does his testimony not affect the kind of president he would be? More Less Doesn't affect DK/NA DK testimony 9/12-16/04 *
31 87. Have you yourself ever served in the U.S. armed forces or the U.S. reserves? Yes No 9/12-16/ Do you or does any member of your immediate family now serve in the U.S. armed forces or in the U.S. reserves? No Yes, self Yes, other Yes, self & other DK/NA 9/12-16/ How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all? Very Somewhat Not at all DK/NA 10/3-5/ /23-27/ /23-27/ /12-16/ Do you or does someone in your household belong to a labor union? No Yes, self Yes, other Yes, self & other DK/NA 9/12-16/ Some people think of themselves as evangelical or born again Christians. Do you ever think of yourself in either of these ways? Yes No DK/NA 9/12-16/ How much confidence do you have that the votes in your state will be counted properly this November -- a lot, some, not much, or no confidence at all? A lot Some Not much None at all DK/NA 9/12-16/
32 93. Regardless of what you think about George Bush now, looking back to 2000, would you say George W. Bush legitimately won the 2000 presidential election, or not? Legitimately won Did not win legitimately DK/NA 12/00 CBS /15-17/01 CBS /8-12/ /9-12/ /28-10/1/ /10-13/ /14-16/03* /12-15/ /10-14/ /11-15/ /12-16/ QUESTION DID NOT INCLUDE REGARDLESS TO Did you vote in the 2000 presidential election, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote? IF VOTED, ASK: Did you vote for Al Gore, George W. Bush, Pat Buchanan, or Ralph Nader? Voted, Didn't Gore Bush Buchanan Nader won't say vote DK/NA 9/12-16/ Did you vote for U.S. House of Representatives in the elections held in 2002, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote for U.S. House of Representatives in 2002? IF VOTED, ASK: In the election for U.S. House of Representatives, did you vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district? Chose Yes, Yes, Yes, Prevented not to Rep. Dem. something else(vol.) DK/NA 9/12-16/
33 Generally speaking, do you usually consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? Rep Dem Ind DK/NA Rep Dem Ind DK/NA 1/92A / /92B /98B /92A / /92B / / / / / /92A / / /98B / /98C /92B /98A /92A /98B /92D / /92E / /92A / /92A / /92C / /92D / /92E / / /00B / /00A / /00D / / /93A / /93A /00L /93B /8-12/ / /14-18/ / /25-28/ / /7-10/ / /21-24/ / /28-5/1/ / /13-16/ / /2-5/ / /3-5/ / /27-31/ / /20-24/ / /19-22/ / /10-12/ / /7-9/ / /11-13/ / /13-27/ / /28-10/1/ / /10-13/ / /14-15/ / /12-15/ / /10-14/ / /23-27/ /96 NYT /23-27/ / /11-15/ / /12-16/ /96C / / /96C / / / /
34 How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally, do you think of yourself as liberal, moderate, or conservative? Lib Mod Con DK/NA Lib Mod Con DK/NA 1/92A / /92B / /92A / /92B / / /98B / / /92A / / / / / /92B / /92A / /92D /98C /92E /98A /92A /98B /92C / /92D / /92E / / / / / / / / / /93A /00B /93A /00A /93B /00D / /7-10/ / /21-24/ / /28-5/1/ / /13-16/ / /2-5/ / /3-5/ / /27-31/ / /20-24/ / /19-22/ / /10-12/ / /7-9/ / /11-13/ / /13-27/ / /28-10/1/ / /10-13/ / /14-15/ / /12-15/ / /10-14/ / /23-27/ / /23-27/ / /11-15/ / /12-16/ / / / /96C / / /96C / /
35 What is your religious preference today? Protestant Catholic Jewish Other None DK/NA 9/12-16/04/ Would you say you attend religious services every week, almost every week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, or never? Almost Once/twice Few times Every week every week a month a year Never DK/NA 9/12-16/ How old are you? Over 64 Refused 9/12-16/ What was the last grade in school you completed? Not a Some College H.S. grad H.S. grad college grad Post Grad DK/NA 9/12-16/ Are you of Hispanic origin or descent, or not? Hispanic Not Hispanic DK/NA 9/12-16/ Are you white, black, Asian or some other race? White Black Asian Other Refused 9/12-16/ Are you now married, widowed, divorced, separated, or have you never been married? Never Married Widowed Divorced Separated married DK/NA 9/12-16/ Was your total family income in 2003 UNDER or OVER $50,000? IF UNDER, ASK: Was it under $15,000, between $15,000 and $30,000, or between $30,000 and $50,000? IF OVER, ASK: Was it between $50,000 and $75,000 or between $75,000 and $100,000 or was it over $100,000? Under $15,000- $30,000- $50,000- $75,000- $15,000 $29,999 $49,999 $74,999 $99,999 Refused 9/12-16/ Male 48 Female 52 35
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