Farm Bill Economics and Expectations
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1 Farm Bill Economics and Expectations Bradley D. Lubben, Ph.D. Extension Associate Professor, Policy Specialist, Faculty Fellow, Rural Futures Institute, and Director, North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center Department of Agricultural Economics University of Nebraska-Lincoln Web information agecon.unl.edu/agpolicy or farmbill.unl.edu North Central Extension Risk Management Education Center ncerme.org
2 Policy Outlook Farm program payments and support Price projections PLC projections ARC projections 2018 Farm Bill issues Budget challenges Spending priorities Program reforms ARC, dairy, cotton, CRP Beyond the Farm Bill
3 Farm Program Support ARC Revenue-based support tied to average prices and average yields Substantial payments on 2014, 2015, and 2016 crops Sharply declining protection for 2017 and 2018 crops as average prices have fallen PLC Price-based support tied to fixed reference price Little payments on 2014 crop Substantial payments and protection for crop with lower price projections, particularly for wheat and grain sorghum
4 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Corn Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for 2018 from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
5 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Soybean Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for 2018 from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
6 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Grain Sorghum Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for 2018 from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
7 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Wheat Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for 2018 from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
8 Farm Program Outlook Price Projections* Commodity Prices ($/bushel) Corn Grain Sorghum Soybeans Wheat * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for 2018 from USDA-OCE as of December Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
9 Farm Program Outlook Average PLC Payment Rates in Nebraska* Commodity Average PLC Payment Yield (bushels/acre) Average PLC Payment Rates per Base Acre ($/base acre) Corn Grain Sorghum Soybeans Wheat * PLC payment projections (prior to payment limits and budget sequestration) based on weighted average PLC payment yields and price projections for 2017 from USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB, and USDA-FSA as of January 2018 and price projections for 2018 from USDA-OCE as of December Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
10 Farm Program Outlook Average ARC-CO Payment Rates in Nebraska* Commodity County/Practice Combinations Average ARC-CO Payment Rates per Base Acre ($/base acre) Corn Grain Sorghum Soybeans Wheat * ARC-CO payment projections (prior to payment limits and budget sequestration) based on yield and price projections for 2017 from USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB, and USDA-FSA as of January 2018 and Olympic average yields and price projections for 2018 from USDA-OCE as of December Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA- WAOB and USDA-OCE.
11 Farm Bill Outlook Commodity programs ARC yields data and history Reference prices ARC v. PLC decision Dairy and cotton Crop insurance programs Program features Eligibility limits Premium subsidy Conservation CRP enrollment cap CRP rental rates Nutrition (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) Supports and eligibility levels Not a source of funds for farm program spending
12 Nebraska 2016 ARC-CO Payments* Corn (In Blended Counties) Payments Sources: USDA-FSA and author calculations.
13 Nebraska 2016 ARC-CO Payments* Corn Payments Compared to Corn Revenue with Payments (In Blended Counties) Sources: USDA-FSA and author calculations.
14 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Corn Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
15 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Grain Sorghum Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
16 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Wheat Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
17 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Soybean Prices, PLC, and ARC Price Protection* Loan Rate Target/Reference Price Market Price ARC 5-Year Oly Avg Price ARC 5-Year Eff Oly Avg Price * Price projections for 2017 from USDA-WAOB and USDA-FSA as of January Price projections for from USDA-OCE as of December ARC 5-year effective Olympic average price based on 86% of ARC 5-Year Olympic average price for illustration only as ARC protection is tied to revenue. Sources: USDA-FSA, USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB and USDA-OCE.
18 $ Millions Farm Program Payments Budget Projections, June 2017 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $ F ARC PLC Source: USDA-ERS, CBO, and author calculations
19 $/Bushel Farm Income Safety Net Corn Prices and Price Projections* Market Price USDA 2003 Baseline USDA 2005 Baseline USDA 2007 Baseline USDA 2009 Baseline USDA 2011 Baseline USDA 2013 Baseline USDA 2015 Baseline USDA 2017 Baseline * Estimated national marketing year average price for 2017 projected from USDA-WAOB as of January Long-run price projections from USDA annual baseline estimates for various years. Source: USDA-NASS, USDA-WAOB, and USDA-OCE
20 Farm Bill Outlook Commodity programs ARC yields data and history Reference prices ARC v. PLC decision Dairy and cotton Crop insurance programs Program features Eligibility limits Premium subsidy Conservation CRP enrollment cap CRP rental rates Working lands funding Nutrition (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) Supports and eligibility levels Not a source of funds for farm program spending
21 Crop Insurance Proposals Crop insurance policy proposals Program features Subsidized harvest price option/coverage Eligibility limits Premium subsidy limit AGI cap for premium subsidy rate/eligibility Premium subsidy Reduction in average 62% subsidy rate
22 Farm Bill Outlook Commodity programs ARC yields data and history Reference prices ARC v. PLC decision Dairy and cotton Crop insurance programs Program features Eligibility limits Premium subsidy Conservation CRP enrollment cap CRP rental rates Working lands funding Nutrition (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) Supports and eligibility levels Not a source of funds for farm program spending
23 Million Acres $/Bushel Conservation Reserve Program Enrolled Acreage and Corn Prices Acres Enrollment Cap Corn Price Source: USDA-FSA and USDA-NASS
24 Million Acres Million Acres Conservation Reserve Program Enrolled Acreage by Category Continuous (Plus Farmable Wetland) Grasslands General Enrollment Cap 0 Source: USDA-FSA
25 Beyond the Farm Bill Trade Regulations Taxes Spending/Entitlement Reform Energy Infrastructure Health Care Immigration Reform Societal Demands
26 Ag Economic and Policy Outlook Price, income, and financial challenges Make sound management decisions based on economic principles Factor in substantial, but declining support of farm income safety net programs Manage portfolio of risks with portfolio of tools and management strategies Policy risks and uncertainty Prepare for budget pressure and changes in farm income safety net Watch, engage, and manage for policy developments in other areas that impact agriculture, including trade, regulations, taxes, energy, infrastructure, immigration, and health care, and societal demands on agriculture
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