What s the Opportunity in Russia and Eastern Europe for Chile? 25 th October 2011
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1 What s the Opportunity in Russia and Eastern Europe for Chile? 25 th October
2 Contents Who Is Talking Global Grape Imports Russian and East European Imports The Top 3 Markets Some Conclusions 2
3 Who is talking to you? Market research Consulting Agriculture, food and drink Full value chain Track record in fresh and processed foods Work in the grape sector A number of projects for Chilean exporters 3
4 Where we operate 4
5 Our study for ASOEX A strategic basis for ASOEX market development programmes in Eastern Europe and the FSU An analysis of the markets and opportunities A logical prioritisation of markets for ASOEX development over the next 3 5 years 5
6 Initial focus Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia-Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Moldova Poland Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Initial scope of study covered 27 Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union (FSU) markets stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea The aim was to use filters to rapidly focus in on a smaller number of high potential markets 6
7 East European population (millions) Russia Ukraine Poland Romania Kazakhstan Hungary Source: IMF 7
8 East European GDP (US$ billion) Russia Poland Hungary Romania Ukraine Kazakhstan 8 Source: IMF
9 First Filter Identified countries with: Low income Low GDP growth Low temperate fruit imports Low major retailer interest Armenia Georgia Kyrgyzstan Moldova Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan FYR Macedonia 9
10 Second Filter Prioritised countries with strong: Retail markets Major retailer presence Modern format sales Modern format growth Temperate fruit imports Import volume Import growth rates Country macro data GDP / person Population size Croatia Estonia Belarus Latvia Bosnia Bulgaria Azerbaijan Albania 10
11 Global Grape Imports 11
12 '000 tonnes Global grape imports US$ '000, Imports - Volume 12 Imports - Value Source: FAO
13 Chilean exports - US & EU (000 tonnes) USA EU Source: UNComtrade
14 Chile to other key markets ( 000 tonnes) China & Hong Kong Japan Saudi Arabia Russian Federation India 14 Source: UNComtrade
15 Russia & Eastern European Grape Imports 15
16 Eastern European imports, 2010 ( 000 tonnes) Russian Federation Poland Czech Rep. Ukraine Lithuania Belarus Slovakia Croatia Romania Kazakstan 16 Source: UNComtrade
17 Key suppliers ( 000 tonnes), Australasia America Middle East Africa Eastern Europe South Africa Asia South America Western Europe Chile FSU Turkey 0 Russia Poland Czech Republic Ukraine Kazakstan 17 Source: UNComtrade
18 The role of the NL A traditional feature of EU exports over many years Re exports to the Russian and FSU markets are a logical extension of this role NL often provides reduced risk but still access to these markets But there is less control of where fruit goes (and to who) for Chile They are there for a reason For serious exporters to the Russian and FSU markets - this relationship needs to be worked out Ideally direct trade in the future, but the role of the NL is well established and this is easier said than done 18
19 NL exports - Eastern Europe ( 000 tonnes) Ukraine Romania Hungary Czech Rep. Poland Russia Source: UN Comtrade
20 Trade structure in Russia and Eastern Europe A wide range of suppliers and buyers The import sector has consolidated already As infrastructure improves direct sourcing becomes more possible Prices can be volatile and are always competitive Numerous systems of trade from FOB, CIF, consignment and advance payment Category Management as known in the West is poorly developed A range of routes to market exists no one set way of doing this 20
21 Distribution of fresh fruit in Eastern Europe Exporter - Grower Central Buying Office Central Buying Office Importer Local/International Importer Local / International Importer Local / International Local Importer Wholesale Wholesale Local Local Local Local Local Independent Retailer Retailer Retailer Retailer Retailer Consumer Fuente: Promar - ASOEX (2011) 21
22 The Top Three Markets An Introduction 22
23 Russian store numbers Hypermarkets Superstores/supermarkets Hard & soft discount Convenience & forecourt 23 Source: IGD
24 Russia retail share (%) 2010 X5 6,8% Auchan 3,1% Magnit 3,0% Okey 1,0% Lenta 0,9% Kopeyka 0,8% Dixy 0,8% Sedmoy Continent 0,6% Real 0,3% Victoria 0,5% SPAR 0,4% Other 81,8% 24 Source: IGD
25 Russia 25 25
26 Poland store numbers Hypermarkets Superstores/supermarkets Hard & soft discount Convenience & forecourt 26 Source: IGD
27 Poland retail share (%) 2010 Biedronka 12,5% Other 38,3% Schwarz 7,3% Tesco 6,9% Carrefour 6,0% Lederc 1,8% Eurocash 2,8% Lewiatan 3,4% Real 4,2% Spolem 5,6% Auchan 5,5% Eldorado 5,7% 27 Source: IGD
28 Poland 28 28
29 Czech Republic store numbers Hypermarkets Superstores/supermarkets Hard & soft discount Convenience & forecourt 29 Source: IGD
30 Czech Republic retail share (%) 2010 Other 31% Schwartz 15% Rewe 14% Norma 1% SPAR 4% Globus Holding 6% Coop SCMSD 7% Tesco 11% Ahold 11% 30 Source: IGD
31 Czech Republic 31 31
32 Some Conclusions 32
33 Summary Russia - a discount market 80% of the market is informal Poland a convenience market 40% is informal Czech Republic a superstore market 30% is informal 33 33
34 GDP and fruit imports GDP $US '000 / head Temperate Fruits Imports vs GDP bubble area represents import market size 25.0 Slovenia 20.0 Czech Slovakia 15.0 Croatia Hungary Poland Estonia Romania Bulgaria Kazakhstan Belarus Serbia Azerbaijan Bosnia Albania Ukraine Latvia Russia Lithuania Imports kg / head 34 34
35 Chilean performance to date An initial market study in 2005 Ongoing promotions in Russia since then Main activities: POS, in store work etc inward and outward buyer missions trade fairs etc Exports to the Russian market have been encouraging Other markets still probably need more work 35
36 36
37 37
38 Market development model Russia Poland Ukraine Invest & develop Build relationships & reputation Secure position Grow with market Serbia Hungary Romania Czech Rep Kazakhstan Opportune Maintain relationships Respond to crucial opportunities Monitor for changes Monitor Watch closely Review status in (max 3 years) 38
39 Overall Eastern Europe and the FSU is not a homogenous part of the world do not treat it as such You can easily be distracted - 27 countries - focus is required Maybe no perfect market exists You need to be an expert Russia is the jewel in the crown It is not a market for the faint hearted or the short term player Only a dedicated effort will pay dividends to the Chilean export effort This work is the start, not the end 39
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