Divided America: Politics and Polarization

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1 Divided America: Politics and Polarization

2 Where the Republican Race Stands 1,547 Delegates Allocated to Date Kasich: 144 (9%) Others: 15 (1%) Rubio: 173 (11%) Cruz: 463 (30%) Trump: 752 (49%) Needed to win: 1,237

3 Where the Race Stands 2,304 (Pledged) Delegates Allocated to Date Sanders: 1,038 (45%) Clinton: 1,266 (55%) Needed to win: 2,383

4 The Trump Coalition Total vote Early deciders Non-college Tells it like it is

5 The Cruz Coalition Total vote Shares my values Conservatives

6 When Did You Choose Your Candidate? Iowa S.Carolina Tennessee Michigan Trump Early Cruz Early Trump Late Cruz Late

7 Most Important Candidate Quality Tells it like it is Trump Shares my values Cruz

8 Most Important Candidate Quality Electability Cares Honest/trust Experienced Clinton Sanders

9 Direction of Country Right Direction Wrong Track Washington Post/ABC News polls,

10 Trust in Our Institutions GREAT DEAL/QUITE A LOT Gallup, June 2-7, 2015

11 Most Honest, Ethical Professions VERY HIGH/HIGH ETHICS Gallup, December 2-6, 2015

12 1-Jan 1-Aug 1-Mar 1-Oct 1-May 1-Dec 1-Jul 1-Feb 1-Sep 1-Apr 1-Nov 1-Jun 1-Jan 1-Aug 1-Mar 1-Oct 1-May 1-Dec 1-Jul 1-Feb 1-Sep 1-Apr 1-Nov 1-Jun 1-Jan Congress s Job Approval Approve Approve Gallup polls,

13 President Obama s Job Approval Jan. 2013: 53% - 42% Today: 48% - 47%

14 A Television Event for Red America Deeper red indicates higher viewership. Deeper blue indicates lower viewership.

15 Duck Dynasty Season 4 Premier

16 Total: 242 electoral votes The Blue Wall

17 Total: 180 electoral votes The Red Wall

18 The Purple States 2012: 61 Dem EVs 55 GOP EVs Dems Need: Blue Wall + 28 EVs GOP Needs: Red Wall + 90 EVs

19 Demographics Obama Romney Whites (72%) African Americans (13%) Latino (10%) Women (53%) (19%)

20 Are Destiny White Non-White

21 President Obama s Job Approval Jan. 2013: 53% - 42% Today: 48% - 47%

22 Drinks and Politics More likely to vote Sauvignon Blanc Brut Gin Red Zinfandel Shiraz/Syrah Pinot Grigio Guinness Chardonnay Scotch Labatt Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Samuel Adams Bourbon whiskey Canadian whiskey Less likely to vote Cognac Brandy Milwaukee's Best Tecate Stella Artois Dos Equis Heineken Tequila Corona Any malt liquor Busch Budweiser Vodka Miller High Life Natural Light Rum Amstel Light Miller Lite Coors Light Coors Original Corona Light Bud Light Blue Moon Busch Light SOURCE: NMRPP analysis of Scarborough Research data USA Release 2; Aug 11-Sept 12; N=206,895 U.S. adults Democratic Republican

23 Cars and Politics 140 Any Hybrid vehicle Porsche Volvo Jaguar 130 Subaru Saab Mini Suzuki Toyota Audi Volkswagen Hyundai Nissan Buick Cadillac Mercedes Acura Honda Kia Pontiac Geo BMW Dodge Lexus Chrysler Mazda GMC Ford Jeep Chevrolet Lincoln 80 Plymouth Mitsubishi Automobile Ownership SOURCE: NMRPP analysis of Scarborough Research data USA Release 2; Aug 11-Sept 12; 70 N=206,895 U.S. adults Democratic Republican

24 Sports and Politics Sports Audiences SOURCE: NMRPP analysis of Scarborough Research data USA Release 2; Aug 11-Sept 12; N=206,895 U.S. adults 18+. Women's tennis (WTA) WNBA LPGA Tour PGA Tour College basketball College baseball High school sports Horse racing College football Figure skating Olympics IndyCar Series MLB Men's tennis (ATP) NHL NFL NASCAR Gymnastics F1 Racing Pro rodeo NBA NHRA Drag Racing Pro boxing European soccer WWE (pro wrestling) Major League Soccer (MLS) MotoGP (Grand Prix motorcycle) UFC (Ultimate Fighting) Monster Trucks AMA Pro Racing (motorcycle/atv) Supercross/Motocro ss

25 Battle for the Senate 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 independents

26 Battle for the Senate

27 Battle for the Senate The Vulnerable Republicans

28 Battle for the Senate The Vulnerable Democrats

29 Battle for the House 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats, 1 vacancy

30 Gerrymandering

31 North Carolina s 12 th District

32 Illinois 17 th District

33 Arizona s (Old) 2 nd District

34 Arizona s New Districts

35 Battle for the House

36 Direction of Country Right Direction Wrong Track Washington Post/ABC News polls,

37 State of the States 24 under total Republican control 7 under total Democratic control 19 under divided control

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