Hog Market Outlook & Pricing Methods
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1 Banff Pork Seminar January 11, 2018 Hog Market Outlook & Pricing Methods Ron Plain Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia
2 The way packers acquire hogs has changed
3
4 MPR Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Purchases Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Slaughter Reports
5 Barrow & Gilt Negotiated Purchases Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Reports
6 Half of U.S. barrows and gilts are sold on a formula tied to the negotiated price
7 MPR Barrow & Gilt Purchases Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Slaughter Reports
8 MPR Barrow & Gilt Purchases Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Slaughter Reports
9 MPR Barrow & Gilt Purchases Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Slaughter Reports
10 How Packers Acquired Barrows & Gilts in % Non MPR Packers 94.9% MPR Packers 0.5% negotiated, live-weight purchase 2.4% negotiated, carcass-weight purchase 32.3% market formula contract Reported hog price Reported pork price 9.9% other market formula (CME futures) 18.3% other purchase agreement 3.0% purchased from another packer 28.1% raised them
11
12 Reported Barrow & Gilt Prices, Base Net Price $/cwt $/cwt Negotiated hogs S/P Market formula Other market formula Other purchase agreement Packer sold Negotiated live averaged $59.04/cwt ~ $78.72 carcass Source: USDA/AMS Prior Day Slaughter Reports
13 Source: USDA-AMS
14 Source: USDA-AMS
15
16 Calculation: Prior Day Purchased Hog Base Price/Pork Cutout Value
17 Calculation: Byproduct + Cutout Negotiated net
18 Weekly Pork Packer Gross Margin, 200 Pound Carcass Calculation: Byproduct + Cutout Negotiated net
19 New Pork Packing Plants 1995 Seaboard opened Guyman plant 2006 Triumph opened St Joseph plant 2016 reopen plants in: Windom, MN Prime Pork - 4,000/day Pleasant Hope, MO Moon Ridge Foods - 2,500/day
20 New Pork Packing Plants 2017 new large plants in: Sioux City, IA Seaboard/Triumph 8/23 Coldwater, MI Clemens Foods 2019 new large plant in: Eagle Grove, IA Prestage Foods
21 Hog Slaughter Capacity
22 Annual U.S. Hog Slaughter, Million head Source: USDA/NASS
23 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center H-S-05 12/29/17
24 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center H-S-11 12/29/17
25 Canada Swine Industry
26 Million Head 16 Canadian Hog Inventory, July 1 14 July 2017 up 2.1% Source: Statistics Canada
27 Million Pigs Born, July-December Source: Statistics Canada
28 Source: Canada Pork International
29 Canadian Pork Imports By Origin 2016 USA 87.9% Spain 2.2% Germany 2.2% Italy 1.9% Poland 1.6% Denmark 1.3% Others 2.8% Source: Canada Pork International
30 Canadian Pork Exports By Destination 2016 USA 39.0% Japan 28.1% China 15.3% Mexico 5.1% S Korea 3.1% Australia 1.8% Others 7.6% Source: Canada Pork International
31 Typically, the size of the swine herd is driven by last year s profitability
32 Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, : +$ ~ +$25.00? Source: Lee Schulz, Iowa State University
33 U.S. Commercial Hog Slaughter 2016: million, +2.4% 2017: million, +2.6% 2018: million, +3.7% Source: USDA/NASS
34 Source: Ron Plain Hog Slaughter & Lagged Profit
35 Cost of Production
36 U.S. Monthly Average Corn Price, Source: USDA-NASS & CMEGROUP Futures
37 Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, Iowa State University $ per Cwt Carcass Source: Actual: Iowa State University Forecast: University of Missouri
38 Meat Supply
39 U.S. Meat Production Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, December 2017
40 Forecast Change in Meat Production ---Percent Change--- Type Beef + 4.3% +4.9% Pork + 2.5% +5.3% Chicken + 2.1% +1.8% Turkey + 0.3% +0.5% All Meats + 2.6% +3.4% Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, December 2017
41 U.S. Per Capita Meat Consumption Trend: Up 1.2 pounds per year Up 3.3 lbs in 2016 Up 2.4 lbs in 2017 Up 5.3 lbs in 2018 Source: USDA/OCE December 2017
42 Meat Demand
43 Growth in Real GDP 3nd Qtr 2017: +3.2% Source: U.S. Commerce Department
44 Index of Domestic Pork Demand Monthly, Base Elasticity = Source: Ron Plain, MU, January 2018
45 International Trade
46 U.S. Meat Exports, Beef Pork Broiler Turkey Billion pounds Source: USDA /ERS
47 U.S. DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE Source: St Louis Federal Reserve Bank FRED 1/3/18
48 EXCHANGE RATE: C$/US$ Source: St Louis Federal Reserve Bank FRED 1/3/18
49 Source: USDA/FAS October 2017
50 Source: USDA/FAS October 2017
51 Source: USDA/FAS October 2017
52 Source: USDA/FAS October 2017
53 U.S. Pork Imports & Exports 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Million Pounds Imports Exports Jan-Nov 2017: imports up 2.3% exports up 7.9% Source: USDA-ERS
54 U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, Source: USDA ERS, December 2017
55 U.S. Pork Exports, Source: USDA ERS, December 2017
56 Index of Export Pork Demand Base Elasticity = Source: Ron Plain, MU, December 2017
57 U.S. Pork Exports by Destination 2016 Mexico 31.6% Japan 23.2% ChinaHK 12.3% Canada 10.2% S Korea 7.8% Australia 3.6% Others 12.3% In 2002, 48.1% of U.S. pork exports went to Japan
58 U.S. Pork Imports By Origin 2016 Canada 72.2% Poland 9.2% Denmark 6.1% Mexico 2.8% Italy 2.1% Others 7.6%
59 12 U.S. Hog Imports & Exports Imports Exports Mil. head Jan-Nov 2017: imports up 1.0 Source: USDA ERS
60 U.S. Hog Imports from Canada Source: USDA ERS data thru December 2017
61 Cold Storage
62 Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center M-S-10 12/22/17
63 Hog Inventory
64 2017 Hog Inventory ---Percent of Year Ago--- Type US Dec Can July All Hogs Breeding Market <50 lbs > Source: USDA & Statistics Canada
65 December 2017 Hog Inventory All Hogs & Pigs Kept for Breeding Kept for Marketing Under 50 lbs lbs lbs lbs. and over Pigs/Litter Sep-Nov Pig Crop Sep-Nov Sep-Nov Farrowings Dec-Feb Farrowing Intentions Mar-May Farrowing Intentions Source: NASS December 2017
66 U.S. Hog Inventory by Quarter Source: USDA NASS December 2017
67 Actual & Predicted Change in B&G Slaughter U.S. Weekly F.I. Hog Slaughter, Source: USDA/NASS Hogs & Pigs Reports
68 Farrowing Intentions and Actual Farrowings by Quarter, of last 14 quarters actual farrowings have been higher than farrow intentions Source: USDA/NASS Hogs & Pigs Reports
69 U.S. Sows Farrowed by Month Source: USDA NASS December 2017
70 U.S. Sows Farrowed by Quarter MAM +1.6%, JJA 1.5%, SON 2.1%, DJF 2.8%, MAM 2.3% Source: USDA NASS December 2017
71 U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Month Source: USDA NASS December 2017
72 Production
73 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center M-S-19 01/02/18
74 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center H-S-05 12/29/17
75 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center H-S-11 12/29/17
76 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center H-S-24 01/05/18
77 Productivity
78 Pigs Per Litter, USDA Hogs & Pigs Reports
79 Litters Per Sow Per Year,
80 Pigs Per Sow Per Year, USDA Hogs & Pigs Reports Source: USDA/NASS
81 Average U.S. Hog Carcass Weight, Source: USDA/NASS
82 Annual U.S. Pork Production Per Sow,
83 Annual U.S. Pork Production, Source: USDA/NASS
84 Annual U.S. Hog Slaughter, Million head Source: USDA/NASS
85 Annual U.S. Sow Inventory, Million head Source: USDA/NASS
86 Prices
87 Source: USDA/ERS December 2017 Retail Boneless Pork Prices Monthly,
88 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center H-P-10 12/29/17
89 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center 12/29/17
90 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center H-P-21 12/29/17
91 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center H-P-09 12/29/17
92 Forecast
93 Commercial Pork Production Forecast Million Pounds Qtr 1 6,230 6,409 6,700* Qtr 2 5,963 6,137 6,390* Qtr 3 6,100 6,239 6,580* Qtr 4 6,648 6,775 7,245* Change % + 4.5% + 2.9% + 4.1% + 2.3% + 5.5% + 1.9% +6.9% Year 24,941 25,560 26,915* *forecast + 2.5% +5.3% Source: USDA OCE, December 2017
94 Iowa-Minn Hog Price Forecast Negotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight Qtr 1 $ $59.67 $66.29 $63-68* Qtr 2 $ $73.46 $69.86 $70-75* Qtr 3 $ $62.30 $70.78 $68-73* Qtr 4 $ $46.26 $58.77 $55-60* Year $ $60.42 $66.43 $64-69* *forecast price prior day purchased
95 Net Slaughter Hog Price, Monthly Average
96 Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, Forecast Source: Ron Plain using futures contract prices
97 Questions?
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Percent
Outline Outline Growth is picking up Percent 6 Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies 5 4 4.9 5.0 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 3.7 3 2 2.0 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.7 1 1.1 1.3 0 2012 2013 2014 2015