Climate Change and Security:

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Security: Ideas & Inspiration from Annapolis Angela Schedel, CDR, U.S. Navy Assistant Professor, U.S. Naval Academy Presented on September 13, 2016 at USFSP icar Workshop

2 Disclaimer This presentation is my personal research Information presented here is not an official position of the U.S. Navy 2

3 The Roadmap Source: USA Today 3

4 Threat to Security Climate change, and especially rising seas, is a threat to our homeland security, our economic infrastructure, the safety and health of the American people. -President Obama May 20,

5 Navy Concerns Naval bases are on the coast Naval bases are flooding more often Arctic s Northwest Passage is now open to ship traffic Source: NASA, National Snow and Ice Data Center, nsidc.org/soac/cascading-impacts U.S. Naval Academy Annapolis, MD Sep 5, 2016 Source: NOAA tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov, Emil Petruncio, CAPT, U.S. Navy 5

6 Water Level (meters MLLW) Show Me the Data! Global Sea Level Rise 1.7 mm/yr since 1900 Local Sea Level Rise in Norfolk, Virginia 4.6 mm/yr since Global & Local Norfolk Mean Water Level Trends Sources: National Climate Assessment (2014), NOAA tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov Both trends have been increasing over the past two decades. 6

7 Why Norfolk? U.S. Navy s largest base 7.3 miles of coastline Located at confluence of rivers, bay and ocean Local sea level trend is much more than global trend Source: Google Earth 7

8 Similarities? U.S. Air Force base 7.2 miles of coastline Located at confluence of rivers and bays Local sea level trend is more than global trend Source: Google Earth MacDill Air Force Base 8

9 Sea Level (ft) Temperature Change ( ) CO 2 (ppm) Show Me the Data! CO 2 Concentration Antarctic Temperature Change Sea Level Source: Adapted from Hansen et al. (2008) 9

10 Show Me the Data! 120,000 yrs ago 20 ft higher 18,000 yrs ago 420 ft lower Today Source: Adapted from Dr. Wanless presentation to Miami-Dade County Board of Commissioners (2008) 10

11 Sea Level Change Source: Hall et al. (2016), IPCC AR5 (2013) 11

12 Climate Models vs. Actual Source: Stroeve et al. (2007) "There's still a lot about the rapid rate of Arctic change that we don't understand." - Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. 12

13 Water Level (meters NAVD) Coastal Flood Events Mean sea level for Norfolk: 4.6 mm/yr NWS Maj FS NWS Mod FS NWS Min FS (m NAVD) Norfolk Water Level Trends National Weather Service Major Flood Stage exceeded 10 times National Weather Service Moderate Flood Stage exceeded 29 times National Weather Service Minor Flood Stage exceeded 138 times Maximum trend for Norfolk: 4.3 mm/yr Note the increasing frequency of flood events Sources: NOAA tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov, National Weather Service, water.weather.gov 13

14 Water Level with respect to MSL trend (meters) Coastal Flood Events Maximum minus mean Are flood events occurring more often or more severely? Norfolk Extreme Flood Events Trend With respect to MSL trend, NWS Major Flood Stage exceeded 6 times With respect to MSL trend, NWS Moderate Flood Stage exceeded 17 times With respect to MSL trend, NWS Minor Flood Stage exceeded 91 times NWS Maj FS - MSLmean NWS Mod FS - MSLmean NWS Min FS - MSLmean Sources: NOAA tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov, National Weather Service, water.weather.gov 14

15 Lessons from Annapolis Source: Google Maps, U.S. Naval Academy 15

16 Lessons from Annapolis Flooding of USNA from Hurricane Isabel precipitation and storm surge, Sep 19, 2003 Damage estimates ranged from $150M - $200M Numerous lasting impacts to facilities, utilities & operations Flooding was estimated at 7.8 feet (100 year event) Source: wunderground.com 16

17 Lessons from Annapolis U.S. Naval Academy Annapolis, MD Feb 9,

18 Armor, Adapt, Abandon Example of our Armor: Temporary door dams used at the U.S. Naval Academy as a flood preventive measure 18

19 Should we adapt? More flood events due to Global SLR Flood damage costs exceed budgeted costs Can you afford not to adapt? Adaptation often costs less over time than flood damage Source: adaptationstories.com/2013/06/28/norfolk-rises-above-the-rising-tide/ 19

20 Height above first floor elevation Should we adapt? Replacement Cost = $1,000,000 5 ft 3 ft 1 ft 0 ft Damage Cost = $0 5 ft Flood Above MSL 10 ft 8 ft 6 ft 5 ft Height above MSL today MSL today 0 ft 20

21 Height above first floor elevation Should we adapt? Replacement Cost = $1,000,000 5 ft 3 ft 1 ft 0 ft Damage Cost = $400,000 7 ft Flood Above MSL 10 ft 8 ft 6 ft 5 ft Height above MSL today Equivalent to 5 ft Flood Above MSL After 2 ft of Sea Level Rise MSL today 0 ft 21

22 Height above first floor elevation Should we adapt? Replacement Cost = $1,000,000 5 ft 3 ft 1 ft 0 ft Damage Cost = $0 3 foot Protective Wall Around the Building 5 ft Flood Above MSL 10 ft 8 ft 6 ft 5 ft Height above MSL today MSL today 0 ft 22

23 Height above first floor elevation Should we adapt? Replacement Cost = $1,000,000 5 ft 3 ft 1 ft 0 ft Damage Cost = $0 3 foot Protective Wall Around the Building 7 ft Flood Above MSL 10 ft 8 ft 6 ft 5 ft Height above MSL today Equivalent to 5 ft Flood Above MSL After 2 ft of Sea Level Rise MSL today 0 ft 23

24 Adaptation Options Sources: - Oak Grove Lutheran School in Fargo, ND floodbreak.com/about/success-stories/success-story-kensington-gate-great-neck-ny 24

25 Adaptation Options Sources: smartvent.com, 25

26 Adaptation Options Sources: stormwater.wef.org/2014/03/first-full-scale-water-square-opens-rotterdam, 26

27 Adaptation Options Sources: cdn.londonreconnections.com/assets/thames_barrier_underspill_512.jpg 27

28 Adaptation Options Sources: ses-project-to-secure-future-of-venice.html 28

29 How does this affect my security? Sea level rise is felt by the Navy in Norfolk and Annapolis It s also felt by homeowners and businesses in Tampa Bay What can you do to protect your critical assets? Sources: wfla.com/2016/06/06/tropical-storm-colin-brings-flooding-to-st-pete-beach-pass-a-grille, 29

30 What can you do? Be informed about sea level rise and tell others Learn from other region s experiences Look for your vulnerabilities Take action, as needed, to Adapt, Armor, or Abandon Sources: wfla.com/2016/08/31/tracking-tropical-depression-9-hillsborough-county, 30

31 Questions? Angela Schedel, PhD, PE, Commander, U.S. Navy Ocean Engineering Dept, U.S. Naval Academy

32 References 2007 Stroeve et al. Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/ /2007gl029703/full 2008 Hansen et al. Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2, pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha00410c.html 2008 Wanless, H. Statement on Sea Level in the Coming Century presentation. statement-on-sea-level.pdf 2013 IPCC 5 th Assessment Report National Climate Assessment. nca2014.globalchange.gov 2016 Hall et al. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management. U.S. Department of Defense. Announcements/Program-News/DoD-Report-on-Regional-Sea-Level-Scenarios 32